Comments on: Has the Iraq War Hastened the Asian Century http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/ Korea... in Blog Format Sun, 6 Jul 2008 17:12:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Salty Dog http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110851 Salty Dog Tue, 25 Sep 2007 20:28:28 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110851 #9, I did some research on my own after reading about the ROK Navy's acquisition of a Type 214 AIP sub, Aegis Destroyer and big deck amphib this past year, especially what it meant it from a balance of power point of view, and I was pretty shocked at the results. I looked at strictly blue water capability (surface combatants and subs) since ballistic subs are strictly strategic deterrence assets and the single aircraft carriers - in UK and France - are merely for symbolic purposes. The ROK Navy is a growing blue water navy that consists of very modern ships, whereas 50% of the French Navy consists of major combatants that are older than 20 yrs of age. So this means France is losing more ships than they are gaining. I also looked at it from a capabilities standpoint and the ROK Navy's use of indigenous anti-ship missiles, land attack cruise missiles, amphibious capability, etc. make them a very potent navy and marine corps. The nuclear attack subs that the French and UK operate are extremely old and loud and doesn't come close to an AIP. IMHO the most dangerous navies are now in Northeast Asia (US, China, Russia, Japan and ROK). In contrast to what Kaplan says, I think India has a long way to go. #9, I did some research on my own after reading about the ROK Navy’s acquisition of a Type 214 AIP sub, Aegis Destroyer and big deck amphib this past year, especially what it meant it from a balance of power point of view, and I was pretty shocked at the results. I looked at strictly blue water capability (surface combatants and subs) since ballistic subs are strictly strategic deterrence assets and the single aircraft carriers - in UK and France - are merely for symbolic purposes. The ROK Navy is a growing blue water navy that consists of very modern ships, whereas 50% of the French Navy consists of major combatants that are older than 20 yrs of age. So this means France is losing more ships than they are gaining. I also looked at it from a capabilities standpoint and the ROK Navy’s use of indigenous anti-ship missiles, land attack cruise missiles, amphibious capability, etc. make them a very potent navy and marine corps. The nuclear attack subs that the French and UK operate are extremely old and loud and doesn’t come close to an AIP. IMHO the most dangerous navies are now in Northeast Asia (US, China, Russia, Japan and ROK). In contrast to what Kaplan says, I think India has a long way to go.

]]> By: WangKon936 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110846 WangKon936 Tue, 25 Sep 2007 15:53:04 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110846 # 7, I doubt that the ROK navy will surpass the UK or France for awhile. Given that the UK and France has nuclear powered attack and ballistic subs and several aircraft carriers/LTPs and the ROK will not for the forseeable future. # 7,

I doubt that the ROK navy will surpass the UK or France for awhile. Given that the UK and France has nuclear powered attack and ballistic subs and several aircraft carriers/LTPs and the ROK will not for the forseeable future.

]]> By: Janus http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110823 Janus Tue, 25 Sep 2007 06:09:14 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110823 Why I am a China-scoffer: A nation where the national dream is to get the fuck out of China I like that Why I am a China-scoffer: A nation where the national dream is to get the fuck out of China

I like that

]]> By: Salty Dog http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110801 Salty Dog Tue, 25 Sep 2007 01:37:25 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110801 Defense budgets as a % of GDP show how serious a country is to its national security. But the actual defense budgets themselves can be very misleading. I think it comes down to how much bang for the buck a military gets. For example, the ROK Navy paid approx. $1.2 billion for each Aegis Destroyer (comparable to a US Arleigh Burke) whereas the Australians are paying approx. $2.2 billion for each Aegis Frigate (a smaller and less capable ship then the KDX-3 or Arleigh Burke). This can be attributed to the lack of a strong military industrial base in Australia. The Kaplan piece was timely and provided much needed visibility to the naval build-up in Asia. Much of this development started in the 1980's - as navies do not arrive overnight. Nations with $$ are the ones that operate large navies and its a fact that traditional European naval powers are declining and Asian navies are ascending. Some of Kaplan's assertions are questionable, but the overall tone of the article resonated well. I know we all like to throw numbers around, but when comparing navies, it should be done from a capabilities based approach. Gross tonnage doesn't work anymore and #'s of ships are not as significant as they used to be. Strictly by size, China has the largest navy, followed by the U.S. and Russia. But from a capabilities based standpoint I think a more reasonable assessment would be: 1. U.S. 2. Japan 3. France 4. UK 5. ROK * 6. India * ? China ** ? Russia ** * India and ROK will surpass France and UK within 5 years based on commissioning and decommissioning schedules. **Training and operational readiness questionable. Defense budgets as a % of GDP show how serious a country is to its national security. But the actual defense budgets themselves can be very misleading. I think it comes down to how much bang for the buck a military gets. For example, the ROK Navy paid approx. $1.2 billion for each Aegis Destroyer (comparable to a US Arleigh Burke) whereas the Australians are paying approx. $2.2 billion for each Aegis Frigate (a smaller and less capable ship then the KDX-3 or Arleigh Burke). This can be attributed to the lack of a strong military industrial base in Australia.

The Kaplan piece was timely and provided much needed visibility to the naval build-up in Asia. Much of this development started in the 1980’s - as navies do not arrive overnight. Nations with $$ are the ones that operate large navies and its a fact that traditional European naval powers are declining and Asian navies are ascending. Some of Kaplan’s assertions are questionable, but the overall tone of the article resonated well.

I know we all like to throw numbers around, but when comparing navies, it should be done from a capabilities based approach. Gross tonnage doesn’t work anymore and #’s of ships are not as significant as they used to be. Strictly by size, China has the largest navy, followed by the U.S. and Russia. But from a capabilities based standpoint I think a more reasonable assessment would be:
1. U.S.
2. Japan
3. France
4. UK
5. ROK *
6. India *
? China **
? Russia **

* India and ROK will surpass France and UK within 5 years based on commissioning and decommissioning schedules.
**Training and operational readiness questionable.

]]> By: Hugh http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110777 Hugh Mon, 24 Sep 2007 15:29:02 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110777 One day people will look back on the "Asian Century" and "China Rising" quacking and think it the quaintest thing. The modern western world's amazing skill in the early and loud recognition of the bare beginnings of any challenge to it's hegemony (which I welcome) is the story here. Such early detection is followed by the crushing of the challenge. Wow, what happened to Japan rising in the 80's, anyone? Why I am a China-scoffer: A nation where the national dream is to get the fuck out of China. Pshaw. Add India in to that too. These are basket-case countries on a far deeper level than the 'gee whiz' stories let you know. One day people will look back on the “Asian Century” and “China Rising” quacking and think it the quaintest thing. The modern western world’s amazing skill in the early and loud recognition of the bare beginnings of any challenge to it’s hegemony (which I welcome) is the story here. Such early detection is followed by the crushing of the challenge. Wow, what happened to Japan rising in the 80’s, anyone?

Why I am a China-scoffer: A nation where the national dream is to get the fuck out of China. Pshaw. Add India in to that too. These are basket-case countries on a far deeper level than the ‘gee whiz’ stories let you know.

]]> By: soondae http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110774 soondae Mon, 24 Sep 2007 14:53:49 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110774 The 'Asian Century'. Does this term imply dominance beyond Asia, or primacy in Asia only? The ‘Asian Century’. Does this term imply dominance beyond Asia, or primacy in Asia only?

]]> By: Left Flank http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110689 Left Flank Sun, 23 Sep 2007 13:57:32 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110689 <strong>That Old Kaplan Magic...</strong> Click to continue reading ""Popularity: unranked [?] ...... That Old Kaplan Magic…

Click to continue reading ""Popularity: unranked [?]
……

]]> By: bumfromkorea http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110397 bumfromkorea Sat, 22 Sep 2007 17:26:10 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110397 So, as a thank-you gift for renewing my subscription, the Economist sent me a "Pocket World in Figures" (Yes, I feel very special). I think the article would be more valid if it focused more on the recent news about updating war machines in all three countries... Rank. Country - Regulars - Reserves 1. China - 2255000 - 800000 3. India - 1325000 - 1155000 6. South Korea - 687000 - 4500000 20 . Japan - 239000 - 44000 So, as a thank-you gift for renewing my subscription, the Economist sent me a “Pocket World in Figures” (Yes, I feel very special).

I think the article would be more valid if it focused more on the recent news about updating war machines in all three countries…

Rank. Country - Regulars - Reserves

1. China - 2255000 - 800000
3. India - 1325000 - 1155000

6. South Korea - 687000 - 4500000
20 . Japan - 239000 - 44000

]]> By: captbbq http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110354 captbbq Sat, 22 Sep 2007 15:20:15 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110354 (apparently tables are cut parsed out in posting) 57    Korea, South        2.7  32.292 60    France                  2.6  49.452 69    Australia               2.4  16.2 70    United Kingdom  2.4  56.304 72    Portugal                2.3  4.83 76    Taiwan                  2.2   14.982 93    Thailand               1.8   10.728 148  Japan                    0.8  39.064 (apparently tables are cut parsed out in posting)

57    Korea, South        2.7  32.292
60    France                  2.6  49.452
69    Australia               2.4  16.2
70    United Kingdom  2.4  56.304
72    Portugal                2.3  4.83
76    Taiwan                  2.2   14.982
93    Thailand               1.8   10.728
148  Japan                    0.8  39.064

]]> By: captbbq http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110350 captbbq Sat, 22 Sep 2007 15:11:12 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/09/22/has-the-iraq-war-hastened-the-asian-century/#comment-110350 I always thought this Kaplan guy was a bit of a hack, and gets much more credit than he deserves. His Korean analysis was particularly amateurish, and the sloppiness of this article doesn't really help to convince me otherwise. Never-the-less people act as if the sun shines out of his ass; theres eve a blog that worships him (Coming Anarchy; an excellent blog, better than Kaplan IMHO) I'm not saying the guys a dunce, but his articles are nothing to get excited about. Particularly the comment about Europe starving their armies and contrasting it with Asia. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2034rank.html In terms of defense spending as a percent of GDP, South Korea, in a "constant state of peril" is but three slots lower than France, and its standing army has in fact contracted in recent years as a result of sporadic service time reductions. Don't forget about the big contraction to come, a reduction of service time by 6 months. Japans defense budget is at 0.8% of GDP, and comparing its Navy to that of Britain is comparing an apple to an orange (albeit an orange that used to be an apple) as its obviously meant to play off Britain's history as a great naval power whereas in modern times its spending goes into a more substantial Army than Japan's. rankcountrymilitary exp as % of GDPdefense budget 57Korea, South2.732.292 60France 2.649.452 69Australia2.416.2 70United Kingdom2.456.304 72Portugal2.34.83 76Taiwan2.2 14.982 93Thailand1.8 10.728 148Japan 0.839.064 <i>(Frong the CIA WFB; The defense budget was recalculated from GDP, and I didn't check whether or not the year from the GDP were the same as the years for the defense budget, the main point of this is to show it in terms of GDP. If you want different budget figures go here: http://www.borgenproject.org/Defense_Spending.html)</i> I also left out China and Russia, for obvious reasons (you can't trust their numbers) As you can see, "old Europe" is not exactly "neglecting" its armies. And China is actually decreasing tis military, while spending more on it to improve its quality. I always thought this Kaplan guy was a bit of a hack, and gets much more credit than he deserves. His Korean analysis was particularly amateurish, and the sloppiness of this article doesn’t really help to convince me otherwise. Never-the-less people act as if the sun shines out of his ass; theres eve a blog that worships him (Coming Anarchy; an excellent blog, better than Kaplan IMHO)

I’m not saying the guys a dunce, but his articles are nothing to get excited about.

Particularly the comment about Europe starving their armies and contrasting it with Asia.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2034rank.html

In terms of defense spending as a percent of GDP, South Korea, in a “constant state of peril” is but three slots lower than France, and its standing army has in fact contracted in recent years as a result of sporadic service time reductions. Don’t forget about the big contraction to come, a reduction of service time by 6 months.

Japans defense budget is at 0.8% of GDP, and comparing its Navy to that of Britain is comparing an apple to an orange (albeit an orange that used to be an apple) as its obviously meant to play off Britain’s history as a great naval power whereas in modern times its spending goes into a more substantial Army than Japan’s.

rankcountrymilitary exp as % of GDPdefense budget
57Korea, South2.732.292
60France 2.649.452
69Australia2.416.2
70United Kingdom2.456.304
72Portugal2.34.83
76Taiwan2.2 14.982
93Thailand1.8 10.728
148Japan 0.839.064

(Frong the CIA WFB; The defense budget was recalculated from GDP, and I didn’t check whether or not the year from the GDP were the same as the years for the defense budget, the main point of this is to show it in terms of GDP. If you want different budget figures go here: http://www.borgenproject.org/Defense_Spending.html)

I also left out China and Russia, for obvious reasons (you can’t trust their numbers)

As you can see, “old Europe” is not exactly “neglecting” its armies. And China is actually decreasing tis military, while spending more on it to improve its quality.

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