S. Korea is currently in the middle of a military buildup, buying or planning to buy F-15Ks, E-737s, Aegis destroyers, XK-2 tanks, XK-21 AIFVs, etc. It has also increased next year’s defense budget by 9.9% to 26.932 trillion Won.
With all the new equipment coming in, the S. Korean armed forces will add new capabilites, but when one thinks about the fact that the main security threat to S. Korea is from the North, well let’s just say it’s overkill. N. Korea’s conventional forces have degraded to the point where their ability to effectively carry out military operations is in doubt. However, the unconventional forces are alive and kicking and there is no doubt in their ability to create much harm to S. Korea. But, where is S. Korea investing in? Not in anti-missile defense, or capabilities against NK commandos and NBC weapons. Nor is it upgrading its current arsenal. Instead, as stated above, it is investing in new and expensive military hardware that is more suited to an all out conventional war with a nation that is powerful than it. So, it’s obvious that N. Korea isn’t a priority, then who is it aimed at?
The most obvious answer is China. But the more I think about it that looks doubtful. Let’s look it at this way. China has currently 200 or so Sukhoi Flankers in its Air Force. The obvious countermeasure to this is in terms of heavy twin engined fighters are the 39 F-15Ks. But where are they based at? Not Kwangju, where it is closer to China, but Taegu where it faces the East Sea and Dokdo.
I remember reading articles which stated that should JASDF F-15Js appear over Dokdo, the ROKAF F-16s can keep station over Dokdo for 8 minutes while the F-15Ks can stay over Dokdo for 45 minutes. That combined with propoganda publicity photos of F-15Ks flying over Dokdo makes one wonder if the intention of the ROKAF is to counter JASDF F-15s and not North Korean MiGs or Chinese Su-27/30s for that matter.
While we are on the matter of fighters, it is interesting to note that purchase of 5th generation fighters were on the backbunner but after the Japanese expressed interest in the F-22, the MND and the ROKAF are now seeking to buy F-35s.
Anyways, IMO, it’s time the MND rethink its priorities. First of all, despite what’s being said, Japan is not Korea’s enemy. Second, S. Korea should be more worried about N. Korea and China in that order. Which means it should rethink its defense priorities so that it can have a more effective defense within its budget. Although it should have the capabilities to handle N. Korea on its own, it should rethink its “balancer” thingy and work closely with the U.S. and Japan to ensure the security of NE Asia. It should play a more active role in global peacekeeping/enforcement missions. It shouldn’t spend what little it has trying to play a silly catchup game with the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
38 Comments
mins0306,
I don’t think Korea’s current military build-up is to counter Japan alone. Korea, being historically surrounded by a number of powerful countries, probably sees several threats, particularly in an era where American strength and/or commitment in the region will decline as time passes.
In light of this, Korea probably wants to load up on as much military technology and build military products that will be desired by nations elsewhere. Thus they can help offset some of the R & D costs. The XK2, The K9 Thunder, KT-1 and T-50, all examples of this focus. There will be a time where America will not want to share its military technology and Korea is getting ready for it.
Also, Korea sees multiple nations as a threat. China’s own Type 99 tank is a vast improvement over the T-64 and T-72 equivalents of the past. China’s F-10 fighter, based on Israeli Lavi fighter technology, may be equivalent to a mid-model F-16. If all else fails, the Chinese still have A LOT of stuff to throw at you. The Russians of the Cold War had an expression, “We don’t respect China’s weapons, but there are so many of them that even if you kill a million a day, you still have three years of work ahead of you.”
Korea, with pretty much a static, if not declining population, needs to upgrade the quality of its weapon’s technologies to compensate. As Stalin said, “Quantity has a quality all it’s own.” It’s something even the U.S. learned in the brutal winter of 1950.
Lastly, I also believe that Korea’s security interests are best served with a strong alliance with the U.S. and Japan. However, this alliance has to be one of equals. Korea has been in an unequal alliance with the U.S. since 1950. It has always had weapons a generation or two behind what the U.S. has. How in the world can Korea see itself as an equal in this alliance if it always has the hand-me-down weapons?
North Korea? Not really a threat in my book. As Sun Tzu said, (via my paraphrase) military offensive power comes from a strong economy. North Korea has no economy, thus no offensive military power. Too dismissive? Eh, we can agree to disagree if you think so.
I’m don’t believe Korea’s military modernization/build-up is necessarily aimed at Japan, either. Korea’s naval buildup appears more aimed at China if anyone — the pushing of a large naval base in Jeju could be seen in this regard. In fact, I seem to recall talk of basing F-15s in Jeju once facilities are ready. Basing the fighters in Daegu — aside from the propaganda value of pretty pics of F-15s over Dokdo aside — might also be with operations in the East China Sea in mind, although the most logical spot in that regard would have been Gwangju AFB, where American F-15s occasionally pop in for a visit.
An interesting note on the F-15K. I believe it’s the only F-15 variant that can fire the Harpoon, giving it a dedicated anti-ship capability.
Good post. This is another dysfunctional aspect of the current US-ROK defense relationship, in that the ROK collective consciousness has come to unconsciously consider that it has an unconditional guarantee of all-out US support under any circumstances. So ROK pols think that they can afford to buy expensive weapons systems, ones that make for chest-puffing national pride but that will prove to be too hugely expensive to maintain — long after the political points made in procuring and parading them are long gone.
When the DPRK goes, it will go with a crash; dictatorships never look so strong as when they are in their last days but the cracks in the facade are already there. What will ROK need if — make that when– it’s time to really unify, the way that West Germany had to do when East Germany came apart at the seams?
Not aircraft carriers, gold-plated latest gold-plated model fighters, ultra-modern (and expensive) tanks, etc etc — but military police battalions, civil affairs battalions, engineer battalions — and most importantly a huge cash reserve for funding the rehabilitation of the desperately impoverished north.
Have ROK citizens noted the latest round of Chinese-Russian joint military maneuvers, this time in Russia? There are many possible scenarios for a DPRK collapse but one likely one involves a dissident post-Kim-Il-Sung-dynasty military faction inviting in ROK assistance to avoid a Chinese (or joint Chinese-Russian) military intervention.
This will be the one chance Koreans will have to reunify under their own terms, and it will have to be without substantial long-term US assistance (not that the US will want to be deeply involved anyway after its treasury and national will have been drained by Iraq).
The mention of “the brutal winter of 1950″ above is right on point; in Oct-Nov 1950 the PRC sent repeated diplomatic warnings to the US through neutral channels, about not tolerating the approach of non-ROK military forces towards the Yalu. I think that dynamic remains unchanged.
If far-thinking ROK citizens really want to keep the Chinese out of “their” territory, they ought to be looking ahead to the challenge for the next 100 years of Korean history — reunification under Korean-only auspices, with the first priority being what forces are needed for that mission — not for conflict with China or Japan.
The best way to keep the Chinese and Russians out of a collapsing North is for the ROK to be ready to go in peacefully, but all-out — by itself. This doesn’t mean without a US alliance, as US “cover” dipomatically at the UN and from offshore military assets will be essential — but there has to be essentially zero US boots on the ground so as not to alarm the Chinese and Russians. They will tolerate a US-allied Korea as long as such a Korea is without any dangerous amount of US forces in-country.
The best way for this to be obvious to Russia/China (and to a generation of paranoid-toward-the-US NorK’s) is for the US to be gone from the ground in ROK. Plus it ends this debilitating-for-both-sides psychological dependency which has come to be the cause of much resentment by younger generations of ROK citizens.
Paul H, you are right. Makes sense.
But, never trust the commies.
Especially imperialistic ones like Russia and China.
If China decides to move in south, and the ROK tries to march north, say good bye and say hello Tong Il Shilla minus Kae Song and Pyong Yang.
Can’t do jack shit if China actually decides to march south.
I have no idea why Putin’s Russia is renewing its interests in missiles and super long range nuke capable bombers.
World War III will be caused by China, Russia, or the Arabs.
wjk,
Have you ever taken an international relations undergraduate course before?
Russia and China are not communist countries. Yeah, China’s party calls itself communist, but com’on really. It’s not a communism that Marx, Lenin or even Mao would recognize.
China imperialistic? Maybe in Tibet. Russia has lost much of what they gained through imperialism, including Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltic states, etc. A lot of wounded pride on the Russian side. Cut them a little slack.
Why would China want North Korea? It’s a sh*t country. Yeah it’s got uranium, tungsten and some hydro power, but it’s also underdeveloped and a third world country. Would India want Bangladesh? Hell, even Manchuria is underdeveloped compared to the rest of China. Why add a dead weight appendage to Manchuria? Ain’t worth going to war over. However, Korea does need a better military to remind the Chinese that.
And why does Russia want more missiles and long range bombers? Well, why do we still have the B2? How many sophisticated Al Qaeda operated radar networks do we need to defeat?
W’s still got one more year in office. He’s still got a chance to start WWIII…
Wang, Russia and China were never really communist. They were fascist. And Imperialistic.
China. Did you ever hear about Chinese nationals talking about breaking the US island chain preventing Chinese might from entering the Pacific Ocean? These guys are nuts.
How many million troops are sitting across the Yalu and Tumen and why?
Han Chinese is undeniably unbelievably imperialistic. Vietnam and IndoChina, if they were cut off by a perfectly neutral China and Russia, they would fallen in months. Not decades.
Imperialistic China is the reason why North Korea survived the Korean War.
Russian Imperialism is still alive. Georgia just shot down a Russian plane, which was probably snooping around out of its borders. Imperialistic Russia wants all former Soviet Nations to come back to Russia. Either directly or indirectly under some quasi alliance and dependency. Everytime one of them joins Nato, the former KGB and the current continuation of it does plenty of bad things.
Do you remember what happenned to the current Lithuanian President? KGB was involved.
Putin. KGB. Yeltsin. Dictator. Both were Commy Party members. Putin’s successor? Friend of Putin.
Communism is the opium of the masses.
I guess, Wang, you missed out on the sinicization of minor tribes in China over these past few decades. It’s Chinese Imperialism.
I’m a little surprised that the most obvious possibility (to one) hasn’t been forwarded here, instead looking to Japan and China as justification for a military buildup to counter the only presumed ‘real’ threat, N. Korea. My slant on it is that it is insurance against the likelihood that the US presence will be greatly (and precipitously) reduced in the near future as part of the CYA for another fools’ errand by the Bush admin, this time into Iran. Anyone who cares about a strong US military and has been following the blogs and news portals on the subject of force maintenance, tour of duty extensions, equipment shortfalls, et.al has to be biting their nails on it. Look for major surprises (for those who aren’t keeping up on what the Daily Show’s team calls “Mess-o-potamia” and “Clusterfuck at the White House” in the next twelve months.
To paraphrase the poet Charles Bukowski in this regard, and never mind he was talking about poetry critics and not US hegemons and their ventriloquist dummies in the MSM, “A lot of people insist that life is a certain way, but somebody is always fucking their wife while they’re at work.”
I knew it WangKon936, you are a Roh loving commie. Russia and China not communist states? Oh yeah, because both have failed liberal ideals of technocratic wonderkind and of course if communism is properly implemented it does not fail–duh, duh, duh . . .
Oh yeah I forgot. You went to an American college and with your perfect American English you can explain how important it is for Koreans to stop trying to emulate Western nation states and realize their own dreams of national destiny.
You sir are a tool.
Wangkon’s analysis is right on - the US commitment is waning, and Korea is trying to reduce uncertainty with a limited buildup of arms meant to project force. It’s helpful to remember how dependent S Korea is on trade, particularly the import of oil through strategically important sea lanes through SE Asia to the Middle East. The US, at present, allows Japan and Korea to free ride on secure shipping lanes, but what happens if US popular revulsion to Iraq leads to a weakening of US commitment to the region? Better to hedge your bets if you’re Korea.
Re #6:
“..but it’s also underdeveloped and a third world country”
So was Tibet, but did that stop China ?
China has already made a lot of progress towards annexing North Korea. The 2nd biggest obstacle of reunification after KJI and his cronies will be China.
I totally agree with Paul H..
sumo294 — was that really necessary?
Well, besides the fact that the South Korean government is unwilling to do or say anything that would anger China, that the North Korean government knows it couldn’t win in war with SK (and that it depends on SK aid to remain in power since they need it to bribe their armed forces), that the South Korean government uses Dokdo/Takeshima for propaganda purposes…I think this is about giving tax money to military contractors.
PS. Follow the money, and you’ll get the answer to most questions you will have about political decisions.
India might want Bangladesh if rival Pakistan were to take it back and move in troops. Recall that India assisted Bangladesh in breaking away from Pakistan in the early 1970s, sparking a war between Pakistan and India. Likewise, China might want to set up a buffer state between itself and a united Korea to keep US troops away from China’s border.
There’s always time for some reactionary spittle-flying on the internet!
Correct me if I’m wrong here, which I probably am… But South Korea, being a small country, doesn’t take a whole long time to cross in a supersonic jet traveling around mach 2, does it? Like maybe something on the order of 10 minutes or so? Now I dunno, but it seems that if China was attacking from over the Yellow Sea, I might like to have that extra 10 minutes to get my jets in the air, at altitude, and pointed in the right direction… That, and it’s a decent place to launch the occasional flight over ‘the rocks’ to scare the shit out of a bunch of seabirds. Again, I’m sure someone’s going to call me an idiot over this — after all, I’m no military genius and I’m sure there must be a reason why having jets on the ground in Gwangju is vastly superior in terms of protecting the Fatherland from the hordes to the east.
Despite what sort of impression you may get from the press, high-level government officials, diplomats, and military personnel are usually a lot more realist than your average bawling netizen. If one wants to simplify current Korean military expenditures as “a silly catchup game” with Japan, I think one should provide a lot deeper analysis on the causes and effects, backed by concrete facts and evidence, than what amounts mostly to speculation.
Dokdo forever, free ride on secure shipping lanes? What, are we still using camels to bring silks in from China. Listen gerbil, everyone gets a free ride on international commerce as evidenced by a functioning system of global arbitrage. Please my dear cousin Kim residing in America–read a little more–eh.
I beg to differ. During the 1950s, the ROK Armed Forces in terms with equipment was on par with the Japan Self Defense Forces. For example, both air forces operated F-86 Sabres and both armies had M4A3E8 Easy Shermans as its main battle tanks.
During the late 60s, the ROKAF got F-4D Phantoms, the first for an Asian nation, and during that time the main fighter of the USAF was the F-4 Phantom.
Come the 80s and the ROKAF received the F-16C/D, and S. Korea became the first export customer for the C/D model.
The F-15Ks that the ROKAF operates are more advanced than their F-15E counterparts in the USAF,
As for the Navy, there were the Gearing, Sumner, and Fletcher class destroyers that made up its fleet from the 60s to the 90s. For much of the 60s and 70s, the backbone of the USN’s escort force were the above mentioned class of destroyers. But the ROKN fell back during the 80s, not because the US was unwilling to supply it with newer ships, but because the ROK was focused on building its domestic warship building industry.
Yes, there has been cases of the US refusing to supply weapons that the ROK wanted and/or needed. But in most cases, the ROK got what it wanted.
I don’t think it’s a issue of US refusal, but more of an issue of how the ROK’s political and military circles make and carry out decisions on what to purchase plus the ROK’s financial situation.
But, North Korea still has ballistic missiles, plus NBC(ok well BC) weapons, plus a huge commando force. It’s military may not be able to roll southward in tanks and armored vehicles, but it still does have the capability to create a lot of havoc in S. Korea. And the sad fact is, S. Korea still isn’t investing in countermeasures(ie anti-ballistic missile systems) against these unconventional threats.
#17,
A Mig 29 can fly at over 2000km/h. Korea is roughly 400km from West to East. So, yeah, you’re right. About 10 minutes across. But, a more important point is that roughly 1000km (or less than 30 minutes away at Mach 2) separates Seoul from Beijing, Vladivostok, and Tokyo. I’m sure we could come up with a long list of ways Korea and Koreans are affected by this.
Yes the Cheju naval base, if it does become a reality, may be part of the ROKN’s effort to counter the PLA Navy’s buildup.
But let’s also take into account two things. One, Cheju is a lot closer to Japan than China. Two, the formation of the Mobile Strategic Fleet(1 LPH, 6 DDGs, 1 AOE) is based on the JMSDF’s 88 fleet(1 DDH, 2 DDGs, 6 DDs). It could be just coincidence but from my point of view, it seems like ROKN admirals have Japan more in mind than China.
Or they may just want to copy the Japanese, since the best navy in NE Asia, not counting the US 7th Fleet, is the JMSDF.
Well, I have yet to see anything from the ROK government/military that will indicate that they are realistic and/or sensible.
You mentioned about facts and evidence. I wish I still had the copy of Defense News that I read back in 1996. In that particular copy, an article stated how S. Korea was trying to match Japan’s weapon’s program. It even had a chart which on one side listed Japanese weapons programs while on the other it listed Korean weapon programs that matched their Japanese counterparts.
Now, my post was an opinion in regards to the current Korean military buildup. And opinions are well opinions. I admit I could be wrong, but I don’t think what I’m saying is mere empty speculation.
#17.
S. Korea has already signed for 4 E-737 Airborne Early Warning & control aircraft from the U.S. So, whatever the case, S. Korea will have early warning on hostile aircraft heading towards it.
Yes, very necessary. Here is the point:
WangKon936: Of course communism never really happened. If you went to college and you read the books produced by the Kennedy School then you would naturally know that Russia, China and North Korea were not anywhere near to what the ideals of communism are.
Student: You mean Mao and Lenin were not communists?
WangKon936: Listen, you don’t even know what true communism is. For example, communism was really conceived by the likes of Moore and expounded upon by later notables such as Mill and refined by French early models. The theoretical height was the German expression that many mistake to be exclusively the work of Marx. You see, communism is very complex and takes quite an intellect to understand.
Student: So communism never really happened?
WangKon936: Exactly, Russia and China were merely failed qusai-centralized states that should not in any way or form reflect on the ascetics of communism.
Student: But were they not trying to be communists?
WangKon936: Oh wow you really are not getting it. You see communism if implemented correctly cannot fail and so by virtue that both states were failures it demonstrates that neither really understood communism.
Student: Oh . . . but capitalism won did it not?
WangKon936: Sigh . . . I guess you are young. Listen there are no such things as pure definitions, only relative characterizations. But in simple terms, capitalism was the problem.
Student: What do mean?
WangKon936: Can’t you see; evey time communism was just about to turn the corner and transform from its pure Platonic form into reality, there was the aggresive imperial states constantly undercutting communism at every given opportunity–never letting up or giving the poor souls a chance at creating a better way of life.
Student: Yes, I see it now. America killed the fetus of communism!
WangKong 936: Yes, now you understand.
South Korea in general is a lot closer to Japan than China.
sumo294, you capture the arrogance. wonderful post.
In the above postings, there seems to be a lot of “insight” in ROK Defense planning — but I’m not getting any sense of confidence that the posters ACTUALLY know what they are writing about beyond what they perceive to be common sense. The logic is often on target, but I’m not sure if it is shared with the Blue House and top ROK military planners.
What I do know is there is a very strong public sentiment that looks forward to withdrawal of the US military at varying points of the future, depending on the beholders’ ideologies. Within this pure “Koreans only can solve the Korea problem” perspective, there is a remarkable lack of concern of China getting involved in a possible DPRK implosion.
Consequently, I would be surprised if the ROK defense forces are even gaming on a scenario of confronting the PLA within N Korea should Dear Leader and sycophants have to suddenly step down in one way or another.
Getting back to my original point, I DON’T KNOW any better than anyone else, but my best guess the China factor is not as heavily weighted as some of the other posters have suggested — no matter how rational that thinking may be.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the fact that they are planning a naval base in Cheju clearly indicate that Korea doesn’t see Japan as a possible enemy?
I think everyone in the world has learned the lesson that putting a naval base on an island half way between your country and Japan is a very, very bad idea, unless you’re absolutely certain Japan is on your side. I saw a movie where Ben Affleck told me so.
Seems to me that ROK is placing airfield in Taegu and naval base in Cheju, because they think that’s the safer side… away from China and norkies who might try to lob missiles at it, and safely within US air cover based out of Japan, in the event that all US presence relocates out of ROK and into Japan.
#7,
wjk… you keep shifting terms on me. Okie, they were “commie” but they were not “communist?” A little confused, but I’ll go with it (I guess).
“They were facists and imperialistic”… probably just a little more facist and imperialistic then the U.S. was during the Cold War. That was what Russia and the U.S. had to be in that particular bi-polarized world. Both had to cut cards with the devil, although the Russians at the time didn’t believe in the devil and the U.S. kept things at a low intensity level so they can deal with their cognative dissonance better. However, American support of facist governments have the nasty habit of having the chickens come home to roost. Ah, what the CIA calls “blowback,” which happened in Cuba, Iran, Vietnam, and Venezuela, among others.
“Did you ever hear about Chinese nationals talking about breaking the US island chain preventing Chinese might from entering the Pacific Ocean? These guys are nuts.” Yes, about as nuts as the neocons arguing for an invasion of Iraq 4 years ago or currently talking about invading Iraq. Extremists on either ends a dominate government policy does not make.
“Han Chinese is undeniably unbelievably imperialistic.” You have to remember that the Han Chinese were victims of imperialism also. As a matter of fact, it was this very real example of China getting carved up buy the Western powers that shocked the Japanese into modernizing in the late 19th century. Of course today the Chinese are expansionistic in a low intensity kind of way and it’s something to watch for… BUT… it shouldn’t be overestimated or overstated. When the Bush administration came into power in early 2001, they spent WAY too much time talking about and thinking about how much of a threat China might be and didn’t spend nearly as much time as they should of reading the CIA reports about Al Qaeda or the FBI reports that there were an unusually large number of students from the middle east taking flying lessons in the U.S. without taking the landing lessons. America’s current declared enemy, and clear and present danger, is Al Qaeda and radical Islam, not China or Russia. As a matter of fact, China and Russia have their own Al Qaeda problem (Chechnya for Russia and Uyghurs in China). The U.S., Korea and Japan need a plan for keeping China and Russia in check without making them feel threatened. We already have enough problems in the world as it is and DO NOT need anymore enemies.
#9 and # 25,
Sumo… I’m a thinker yes, a communist no. Sorry to disappoint you. I tend to take a middle ground and think of the foreign policy requirements of both parties to come-up with an analysis. Taking various views to come up with a balanced analysis was once called critical thinking. Now it’s misinterpreted as “communist sympathizer.” Wonderful to know how far SOME PEOPLE have come from 50’s era McCarthyism. However, like McCarthyism, it’s equally credible and taxing on the brain cells…
FYI fellas,
http://jgpo-guam-cmtf.blogspot.....riers.html
http://english.chosun.com/w21d.....70007.html
“The Hyuga means that Japan is back in the power projection business.”
Whoopie! Arms race in the Far East! Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon, GE, The Carlye Group, etc. must be salivating right about now.
One hopes that Korea heeds this advice rergarding Japan’s 2 (more later) Hyuga class ships and doesn’t use it as another occassion to wet its panties in public. Japan isn’t even remotely expansionist, and these are after all helicopter carrying ships only, which severely limits their power projection capacity.
Korea has yet to order the 2 Dokdo class helicopter carriers that it put on ice a while back. So whatever panty wetting is most probably being done in private.
Yeah, yeah . . . words are cheap. Tell me exactly what it is about communism you do not like if you even believe that communist nations did exist? Please enlighten us WangKon936.
I don’t need to tell you sh*t…
Just go here and it will be pretty damn obvious that I’m not communist.
http://www.rjkoehler.com/2007/.....ment-99397
#32 -
As the blog post referenced in #31 points out, these Hyuga-class vessels are of similar displacement to the British Invincible-class, which means they may well be capable of operating STOVL fixed-wing aircraft as well as helicopters. With a very capable STOVL fighter on the not-too-distant horizon (the F-35), it’s not such a stretch to speak about the power projection capabilities that ships like these afford a navy.
It’s really just a 13 degree ski ramp, stronger elevators and a urethane coated flight deck away from operating STOVL aircraft…
Nice organic Aegis and ATSW capabilities which I believe even the Dokdo class LPH doesn’t have.
Once again WangKon936, please stop dodging the question. What exactly about communism it is you do not like?
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