Back when Lee Myung-bak was ahead by 20 points or more, I had been hedging my bets about the outcome of the GNP nomination contest (a weird mix of primaries, conventions and poll watching). But now that Park Geun-hye has gotten the gap down below 10%, I am ready to call it for Lee.
Park has been closing the gap over the past several months but has not been able to pull even with Lee, and I doubt she would be able to do so even if she had more time.
Simply put, Lee has taken the best that Park and the Roh administration could throw at him for months and is still standing. Realmeter has Lee ahead by 9% going into the August 19 nomination day, numbers pretty much matched by the latest Chosun poll. The Chosun poll also has Lee ahead among GNP members.
For Park to win at this point, she would need to win the support of almost every undecided voter, which is highly unlikely.
There, I’ve made the call and will have to live with it if I am wrong.
(BTW, I am not stating support for any candidate. I certainly don’t want to get busted by the NEC.)
2 Comments
there’s a whole bunch of illegal material on myeong bak that’s gonna come out just ahead of the elections. the question is really a matter of how much citizens care about such activity.
Let’s just hope the GNP can find enough dirt on Roh & Co’s dealing with K.Jo to put things in, well, perspective.
I have no doubt there is plenty of it