My latest KT pieceis up. It is on the government leaks that have been hitting Lee Myung-bak lately:
The current crop of accusations against Lee Myung-bak begs three questions: Are the allegations against Lee true? Are they part of a plot by elements of the government and are the others out to derail his candidacy? If there is a plot, will it succeed?
The answer to the first two questions will depend on the efforts of prosecutors in getting to the heart of the matter. So far no criminal charges have been brought up against Lee and it is unlikely that any will be brought against him.
His alleged crimes took place years (sometimes decades) ago and it will be difficult for prosecutors to find compelling evidence against him even if the allegations are true. Likewise, there is no indication so far that prosecutors will be any more effective in dealing with the allegations against Lee than they were with the Kim Dae-eop’s allegations in 2002.
So Lee will likely be judged solely in the court of public opinion.
Right now, it appears that Lee’s campaign has largely succeeded in placing the current real estate speculation allegations within the context of the ongoing conflict between Lee and the Roh administration.
If Lee can continue to do so, he will be able to rally the GNP party faithful around him as the man that the left most fears to face in the general election.
Back a few months ago, when Lee was more than 20 points ahead of Park, I was hedging my bets on who would win the GNP nomination. Now that Park has cut Lee’s lead down to a little less than 10% in some polls, I am becoming more convinced that Lee will win. Maybe it is just the contrarian in me but I am getting a gut feeling that while Lee’s numbers are falling, those who are sticking with him now will stick with him to the end. In other words, we are looking at Lee’s base numbers. As I said in the piece, if Lee can hold on this summer, I think it will be more difficult for the government to keep going to the “leaked information” well without triggering a backlash.
I am still not too happy with my output. I write a little, do a bunch of research, write some more and then string the pieces together. I think it makes for choppy reading. What I need to do is get all of my research done and then hammer out a first draft in one sitting. I certainly hope I will get better at this will experience.
5 Comments
Nietzsche? Does he like to pull around a wheelbarrow in which his mistress is sitting and flogging him on? Or does he have syphilis?
No, but he will freak out if he sees you beating a horse.
“if these (corruption) allegations continue to be traced back to various government agencies, it will soon get to a point where a majority of the Korea public will simply stop believing them.”
LMSLAOAT
Andy, I think your analysis is right and my Korean wife and I are rooting for Lee Myung-bag.
Having said that, I had a minor epiphany the other day, which I will be the first to admit it could be dead wrong.
That is, I wonder by this autumn the Korean electorate is going to be so weary about all the alleged wrongdoings by all the leading candidates that they will become tired and disgusted — and stop paying attention to these rumors in resignation that it’s politics as usual.
In such an event, the voters may simply compare the leading candidates’ track records in government. Should that happen, Sohn Hakkyu may suddenly rise like a phoenix as Lee Myug-bag’s truly credible challenger.
In other words, you, I and others may be proven to have been too quick to write Sohn off so early in the campaign.
Just a notion that crossed my mind….
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