[Referring to Universal Music's non-renewal of long-term exclusive iTunes deal] Steve Jobs should be careful though… cuz he’s got right to no content

The iPhone, iPod, and (with some wrangling) AppleTV are all just as good with pirated material as with legit stuff purchased from the iTunes Store.

And Samsung is laughing all the way to the bank.

Sez you. Samsung’s margins are thin: They have to churn much more product, and therefore take much more risk, in order to earn the same buck as Apple. Samsung reports its Q2 results on Friday. Let’s see who’s laughing then.

–blueballs

Cute, blueballs, but lame as always. I guess the word “analogy” isn’t in your dictionary.

You’ll notice that I provided three analogies in my post. The first analogy related to how short term success does not a bright future make. The other two analogies related to how products can become obsolete, regardless of quarterly profits.

I am going to repeat my points in the clearest possible language so that you can understand:

A. Problem

1. Apple’s principal source of revenue is the ipod mp3 player.

2. The Apple’s share of the mp3 market is under threat by market saturation, and increased competition.

3. The mp3 market itself is under threat from convergence technologies.

4. In less than five years, people will no longer buy devices that just play mp3 or video. Instead people will buy phones that play mp3 and video.

5. This means that Apple, if it is to keep momentum and remain relevant, must not only enter the cellphone market, but dominate it.

B. Apple is unlikely to dominate the cellphone market.

1. Apple mostly sold ipods to first time buyers of mp3 players. The cellphone market has very few first time buyers.

2. Apple enterted the mp3 market when the mp3 market was at a nascent stage, the cellphone market is already quite mature and highly competitive. Furthermore, there are already many players in the market.

3. Apple has little experience in the industry.

4. The Iphone is not the most sophisticated smartphone in the market.

5. The iphone is very expensive.

6. Apple’s goal for the year is 10 million Iphones sold. Even if Apple meets this goal, it will still only possess 1% of the market. Samsung controls over 12% of the market.

7. Most of the growth in cellphone usage is on the low end(cheap) of the market, not the high end.

8. The iphone will cannibalize sales of the ipod.

Bottomline: Apple is unlikely to dominate the cellphone market. Which means that it you’ll start seeing a slip in revenues soon enough.

This is a problem for Apple. Apple will have to compete against tough competition while simultaneously seeing its bread and butter market canniblized by cellphones.

Stock prices rise and fall, but intelligent analysts look at the big picture. High stock prices do not a bright future make. I hope you didn’t buy stock in pets.com in 1999 like dogbert and aborigine did!

Do you get it now? If not, don’t worry. I’ll explain it to you as many times as necessary until you get it right. I’ll be with you every step of the way on your learning process.

Shares of Apple Inc. rose more than 4 percent to an all-time high on Thursday as investors bet on strong demand for its media-playing iPhone and speculation mounted over plans to sell the device in Europe.

Analyst estimates for iPhone sales in its first weekend run as high as 700,000 units, beating many investors’ expectations, and some now expect the momentum to continue. The device went on sale last Friday.

AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. provider for the phone, said it had virtually sold out of the device in that time, though neither company has provided sales data.

Oh dear. It seems investors and professional analysts don’t seem to agree with Rocco comparing Apple to a company that just “found” billions in profits in the last several years. Apparently, they actually developed products and then sold them to consumers to earn their billions, and didn’t “find” anything. Fancy that asshat!

Christ, this is akin to arguing with my toejam, except at least my toejam makes a good point every once in a while.

A certain poster on this thread just had to change his pantiesunderwear.

This is sarcasm right? Oh god no, one Iphone broke down and some dude wrote about it! Sell your Apple stock and stop the European launch, it’s a fucking failure!

Steve Jobs must be shitting his pants over that potential $500 in lost revenue if that guy returns his Iphone. I sure hope that other $699 million and change this quarter can soothe his pain.

A kid is walking down the street with a dollar in his pocket. All of a sudden, he sees a 20 dollar bill on the street. Woah! This kid’s profit margins are 2000%! This kid’s quarterly earnings growth beat the entire S&P!

I guess you’d let this kid run a hedge fund.

Blueballs, what you’re doing is foolish. Its foolish to focus solely on profit margins as a measure of a company’s future prospects. A smart analyst must also take into account a company’s ability to sustain its revenue stream. An asbestos company, no matter its margins, does not have bright future prospects. A typewriter company, even with 100% profit margins, is not likely to attract the cream of the management crop. These are, of course, extreme examples, but they illustrate my point: Future prospects are an essential factor to consider when analyzing a company’s future.

How does this apply to Apple? Well, as I’ve already stated, Apple’s future prospects are currently not too bright. They hold a meagre percentage of the PC Market. They’re main revenue stream, the Ipod, is under threat not only by other MP3 players, but mobile computers and cellphones. In five years or less, the mp3 market will have been completely canniblized by convergence devices. Apple has no choice but to diversify into other devices like cellphones.

Unfortunately, its heading into deadly territory…

More later.

http://tinyurl.com/2r6veq

http://www.unwiredview.com/200.....r-grandma/

Multitouch coming to mouse and, according to a rumor, the trackpad of MacBook:
http://www.macnn.com/articles/.....se.patent/
http://crunchgear.com/2007/06/.....n-october/