The Marmot’s Hole

With the signing of the Strategic Implementation Plan, Korea and the US will, in theory, complete construction of a new allied command structure by 2009:

“Through a deliberate process incorporating multiple theater-level exercises and evaluations, the JCS will achieve initial operational capability as the theater war fighting command by late 2009 and attain full operational capability by the end of 2011,” the JCS said in a press release.

The JCS will overhaul its organization to have sufficient capability to exercise independent wartime operational control by the target date. In the first major overhaul of the JCS in about two decades, the apparatus will enhance its operation department by the first half of 2009, becoming the Joint Forces Command. Eight combat institutions will be created in the organization.

The allies will also establish a new joint military coordination system by 2009 to replace the current Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command. The Alliance Military Coordination Center (AMCC) will link the two separate commands of the Korean and U.S. troops with its 10 subordinate institutions.

So, how might responsibility be shared? This is how:

Under the new alliance system, ground and naval forces operations will be led by the Korean military, while the United States will provide aerial-centric support to the Korean troops. The alliance’s air forces will create a combined air and space operation center to enhance joint command for U.S.-led aerial operations in wartime.

Naturally enough, this means OPLAN 5027 has become obsolete:

By 2009, the two countries will also repeal the allies’ combined war scenario, codenamed OPLAN 5027, and draw up a new war plan designed for independent operations of the two militaries.

Under the OPLAN 5027, if hostilities break out, the United States would deploy up to 690,000 troops, 160 vessels and 2,000 aircraft to the peninsula, in addition to the current troops, which number about 29,000, to remove the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and defeat his 1.17-million-member military.

Under a new joint war plan, the number of American soldiers to be deployed and the allies strategy may be changed, defense officials said.

I’d imagine those numbers will be changing quite drastically — even without our current commitments in the Middle East, 690,000 troops was an insane number considering South Korea’s ability to defend itself (while North Korea gets all the credit for its 1-million man force, fewer realize South Korea fields an active-duty force of 680,000 better fed, better equipped and better trained men).

It’ll be interesting to see how faithfully the next Korean administration moves to implement this plan should either Park Geun-hye or Lee Myung-bak win in December. If I had to take an early guess, I’d say they’ll support the changes, but there will be some in their party that will read this as the beginning of an American abandonment of Korea.