I wrote a piece in the Korea Times on Sohn Hak-kyu’s presidential campaign in what I hope will be a regular series on Korean politics until the National Assembly elections next spring.
When I first pitched the subject to the editor, I planned to talk about why I thought Sohn’s effort was going to fall short. He asked for me to include what I thought Sohn needed to do to be successful. I did so and it is actually a better piece (editor’s do earn their pay).
Anyway, here is the advice:
Considering his position, what can Sohn do to improve his chances?
First, he should stop pretending that the center can hold. In a center-left campaign, it is the left that usually leads. He has to realize that he will need progressives of every stripe on board to have any chance of winning the presidency. He should not count on progressives voting for him just because he is better than the GNP candidate. A progressive challenger can and will emerge if he neglects the left.
Second and in a related point, he should stop unnecessarily provoking progressives like he did when he called President Roh Moo-hyun a “typical incompetent progressive’’ last March. It costs him support with progressives without gaining him any support from conservatives. Just calling Roh incompetent would have gotten his point across without alienating potential supporters.
Third, unless he plans to change his views on the free trade agreement, he needs to seek another way to find common ground with labor groups. One possibility would be to pledge to work with labor and farming groups in drafting future trade agreements.
Whatever he plans to do to win over the labor vote, he needs to do it before the FTA vote comes up. It is easier to hold a coalition together through tough times than to build one during tough times.
I should have written more about the labor vote, because it important for Sohn to close the deal with labor to have any chance of winning.
If you leave comments at the Times article (positive or negative), I would not complain.
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4 Comments
Contrary to what you think Sohn is the front runner outside of Hannara’s Lee Myeungbak and Park Gunhey.
Many believe the evil former president, Kim DaeJung, have placed his support behind Sohn. This means he will get 95% of Jolla Commie votes and may win the election.
Right before the election, Kim will explode a big bomb; he will make something very damaging about the Hannara candidate public.
Sohn has a decent chance of being the next president of Korea. Not!
Baduk,
Thanks for the comment. I was starting to feel lonely.
The reason I think Sohn will have a tough time is not the GNP (the GNP candidate will get about 45-50% of the vote no matter what) but the Democratic Labor Party.
If Sohn gets the nomination of one of the Uri remnants and emerges as the consensus candidate of the center-left, he will have to work his tail off to keep the DLP candidate from getting 10% of the vote.
The almost daily slug feast between Sohn and Roh doesn’t help. It gives Sohn his “Sista Soulja” moment but he seems to be acting like the left has nowhere else to go. It does and it will if he doesn’t close the deal with labor over the summer.
So…(forgive me if I sound dense), Mr Sohn has no party? He was a member of the GNP, but left it, and now he is hoping that either the Uri, some splinter of Uri or the DLP will adopt him as their leader? Is he even a declared candidate, now running as an independent, like Ross Perot? Or just trying to drum up support by himself at the moment, hoping to form his own party and declare his candidacy as time goes on? If so, what special right does he have to any microphone right now?
not sure if Sohn has a party or not, he’s hoping to be the head candidate behind whatever union against HanNara forces mingle up to be.
It’s an eyesore to watch Park Geun Hye’s dumb ass tactics. It’s basically all based on criticism, no new initiative or plans on her own.
So what, if Lee Myung Bak is rich?
Why don’t they dig into Okamoto’s blood line and bank accounts. There’s blood money there. Versus commercially made money on Lee’s part.
Lee Myung Bak must become President of Korea.
If Park somehow wins, then she’ll lose to whoever opposes her 1:1.
She has more weaknesses, if you care to dig them all up.