Reading economic reports makes me cross-eyed, so I will leave posting on that to Dram Man and others.
What interests me is the political repercussions. The recent agreement on FTA between the Bush and Roh administrations will face tough ratification fights on both sides of the pond. As the Hankyoreh reports, approval in the Kuk Hoe is not a done deal despite its being supported by both major parties. The Korea Times reports that 88 members support the deal while 66 oppose, with 128 members undecided or unreported.
Rather than debate the pros and cons of the deal, I will just present a program on the players and where they stand on the HanMiFTA:
The Parties (per Hanky link above)
- GNP: For
- Uri: For
- DP: Against (UPDATE: DP Rep Chough Soon-hyung favors it)
- DLP: Against (no surprise there)
Since the GNP and Uri make up well over half of the legislature, you would think that passage would be easy, but it is not so. Korea, like the US, has little party discipline and 40-50 Uri legislators are already against it. The upcoming FTA fight could help speed up the process of realignment on the Korean left. With Uri split down the middle on the issue and the Korean public also evenly split, the Democrats or the DLP could use their opposition to the FTA to increase their public support over the coming weeks. Right now the three parties have a combined support rating of about 25%.
The Newspapers
- The Hankyoreh: Against (shocking)
- Chosun Daily: Oddly ambiguous (perhaps because it’s Roh’s deal)
- JoongAng Daily: For
- DongA Ilbo: Strongly for
The DongA went as far as to heap praise on President Roh for his leadership, favorably comparing his work on the FTA to the leadership of the SaeMaeul Movement and the 1988 Olympics. Somehow I think Roh might not be comfortable being put up on the same pedestal as Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan/Roh Tae-woo.
The Presidential Candidates:
The Korea times (still my favorite source for English-language stories on Korean politics, despite the reputation of its editorial page) has the low-down on how the presidential contenders stand (listed by ranking in the latests Realmeter poll).
- Lee Myung-bak (GNP): For
- Park Geun-hye (GNP): For
- Sohn Hak-kyu (Ind.): For
- Chung Dong-young (Uri): Against
- Kwon Young-gil (DLP): Against*
- Kim Geun-tae (Uri): Against
- Roh Hoe-chang (DLP): Against*
- Chung Jun-bae (Uri): Against
Kwon and Roh are not listed in the Korea Times piece, but they are part of the DLP’s unanimous opposition to the FTA. I think the loser of that group will be Sohn Hak-kyu, who will lose some of his moderate progressive supporters.
If one of the also-rans can manage to become “Mr Anti-FTA,” he could boost his support. Kim Geun-tae and Chung Jun-bae are certainly trying. They are currently on an anti-FTA hunger strike, along with Ansan Rep Im Jong-in. But I think that Chung Dong-young (who is better at working the media) or Roh Hoe-chang (who is better at working up the proletariat) will use this issue to move past Sohn into third place over the next couple of months.
In any case, we should be in for a fun fight.
BTW, the students in my American government class were shocked to find out that the FTA is not big news in the US (being mostly covered by trade publications). That last link has a good run-down of the deal.
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What’s even more fun is watching Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and the GNP leadership praise Roh.
It’s almost surreal.
Wow, excellent, excellent overview, Andy.
It seems that it’s pretty much split down the middle, with established candidates and those in power in favour of it, while fringe candidates, those on the outside looking in, and those who claim to represent the interest of fringe groups against it.
It seems that this issue will be the #1 litmus test come election time, a way to judge how the public feels about the socialist policies of the current government… FTA and globalization is pretty much as far away from left-leaning agenda of the current administration, and with everyone clearly falling in line with one side of the camp or the other, the public will have a rare opportunity to cast a unequivocal yes/no vote on socialist, protectionist economic policies.
I’m personally a big proponent of globalization and efficiency and efficacy of open markets. I’m not against socialist agendas in principle, but in timing… I believe lefty agendas of social protections and protective welfare states are luxurious frivolities that rich and stable societies can afford to indulge in. Korea’s not yet rich enough to be a socialist country.
AJ: BTW, the students in my American government class were shocked to find out that the FTA is not big news in the US (being mostly covered by trade publications).
I think they have an exaggerated idea of how important exports are to the US (relative to Korea). And the Korean slice of US exports is obviously nugatory. In 2005, Korean exports to the US were about 5.5% of Korea’s nominal GDP. In the same year, US exports to Korea were 0.2% of the US’s nominal GDP. It’s just not that big a deal.
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[...] from Cho, Joong, Dong and the GNP to President Rho, I start to have questions on the deal. Andy Jackson at the Marmot Hole nicely summarized FTA in Korean Political [...]
[...] FTA stuff: Andy at the Marmot’s Hole looks at how the various presidential candidates line up on the FTA question and Jamie at Two Koreas continues [...]