(NOTE: I use the Korean government spelling system on place-names, which are clearly different than what the Korea Times uses.)
We have three by-elections coming up in late April in different parts of the country. The line-ups in each are a microcosm of the fractured nature of Korean politics. The Korea Times lists them.
First there is Daejeon:
The electoral district of So-gu B in Taejon is becoming a two-way battle between Lee Jae-sun of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and Shim Dae-pyung, chairman the People First Party (PFP).
Then there is the seat in Jeolla-do. The race is being held to fill the seat once held the former Democratic Party Chairman, Han Hwa-gap, who was removed from office on a corruption conviction last December:
In the second electoral district of Muan and Sinan in South Cholla Province, Kim Hong-up, second son of former President Kim Dae-jung, is likely to win as the Democratic Party candidate.
Finally, there is race in Gyeonggi-do:
Meanwhile, neither the GNP nor the Uri Party has decided on candidates for the last electoral district, Hwasong in Kyonggi Province.
The different dynamic of the races is illustrative of the problems facing the Korean left in upcoming elections. The conduct of the Uri party so far is also an indication that they are adjusting to that reality.
They are not running anyone in the Jeolla district. They know that they cannot win there and are hoping to create some harmony between the various parties on the left ahead of December’s presidential election. The GNP is running a token candidate. I would be amazed if he gets more than 20%, despite the fact that Kim Hong-up was convicted for taking bribes in 2003. Kim’s victory there will put Muan-Sinan high in the running for most corrupt district in Korea.
More interestingly, the Times says that Uri and the Democrats might sit out of the Daejeon race. If they actually do that, it would be strategically wise decision. With the left as fractured as it is, the leftist parties need to unite in a “fusion ticket” behind whichever party’s candidate is strongest in that district. The Daejeon race is an important test of those parties’ discipline. If Uri or the Democrats break down and run someone there (making a GNP victory that much more likely), then they could be looking at a world of pain in next year’s National Assembly elections as they undercut each other.
The only strait up Uri-GNP fight will be in Hwaseong. I don’t know which party had held the seat previously but south-eastern Gyeonggi-do had been Uri country. The fact that neither party has an obvious candidate at this point indicates that the race there will be a test of party rather than individual candidate strength. As usual, Sudogwon (the capital region) is the place to watch.
The article did not mention the Democratic Labor Party but I expect the DLP to run everywhere that they can field a half-decent candidate. As a fringe party, one of their main weaknesses is the ‘electability’ issue. If they can ‘pull a Nader’ and make more moderate left candidates lose, then they can at least partially negate that weakness (If neither party on the left can win, why night vote for the real deal rather than left light?) in the hope of becoming the main party of the Korean left in the future.
