In the wake of Andrei Lankov’s primer on “How to Topple Kim Jong-Il,” Foreign Policy has followed up with a skeptic’s run-down of what we know, what we don’t know, what we need to know, and what we thought we knew but now doubt about claims surrounding North Korea’s uranium enrichment program. Where purchases of centrifuges and violations of frameworks are concerned, the author sees shades of gray in Pyongyang’s prevarications:
Cheating is cheating, isn’t it? Yes, but the degree matters: A parking ticket and vehicular homicide are both violations of the law. The first gets you a fine, the second a prison term. In the case of North Korea, 20 centrifuges violates the Agreed Framework, but is not a significant military capability. It takes thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium. North Korea would have to spin its 20 machines (if, in fact, it has actually assembled the parts it appears to have bought) for almost two decades in order to make enough material for even one uranium bomb. But secretly constructing an enrichment factory would be a major breach of the agreement, showing an intention to break out of the negotiated freeze at the earliest opportunity. The first can be stopped with little damage; the latter is a fundamental threat.
Determining the true extent of that threat remains a daunting task. For now, though, despite a good deal of circumstantial evidence that suggests North Korean duplicity, hard evidence of plant construction, operation, or enrichment has not surfaced.
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It amazes me how much moving space NK gets from the world community – includng the press. A promise to do something positive is frequenly hailed as the greatest thing in the world. It is a crucial sign of intent and indicates a willingness to chage.
But, buying hardware to set up a uranium enrichment program is that big a deal until they buy more and set up a factory. I wonder if we’ll have to wait until they start spinning the tubes? Or will we need video of that?
And why won’t the US unfreeze that $20 something million? It is going to hold up peace in our time over such a small amount of money?
The media is depressing….
It just amazes me how blame always seems to fall on the US for this whole mess. It’s the Norks who are making nukes, they are the ones who have broken all agreements and commitments, why is the US always on the defensive? (This goes for many other things the US has done. Instead of laying back and apologizing, Bush should go on the offensive, such as with this latest BS about firing lawyers. No more apologies.)
Maybe it’s time to just throw in the towel on this whole charade with the Norks (I’m willing to wait a short while until the latest phony deal falls apart soon enough). Ignore the Norks. Tighten the financial screws, watch for shipments of nukes, fake dollars and drugs and keep squeezing until the pipsqueak squeals for a real deal. Will he ever do so? Who knows, but at least its better than paying him off now and getting nothing of substance out of the deal. Any deal we cut with KJI now will accomplish little more than prolong his regime of scumbags and many more dead North Koreans from starvation, execution, etc.
From your mouth to God’s ear, snow.
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