In Foreign Policy, Andrei Lankov provides the United States with some advice as to how to bring about the demise of Kim Jong-il in North Korea. If you subscribe to Foreign Policy, here is the link to the original story. If not, this blog has a pretty good summary of Lankov’s piece. Here’s a taster:
Realize a Quiet Revolution Is Already Under Way: With the state-run economy in shambles, the government no longer has the resources to reward “correct” behavior or pay the hordes of lackeys who enforce the will of the Stalinist regime. Corruption runs rampant, and officials are always on the lookout for bribe. Old regulations still remain on the books, but they are seldom enforced. North Koreans nowadays can travel outside their county of residence without getting permission from the authorities. Private markets, once prohibited, are flourishing. People can easily skip an indoctrination session or two, and minor ideological deviations often go unpunished. It’s a far cry from a free society, but these changes do constitute considerable relaxation from the old days.
Read the rest on your own.
22 Comments
Also the article is available on Academic Search Premier if people are interested and have access to it.
I have always liked Mr. Lankov. He makes total sense to me. Now, the question is: Will anyone listen to him? That seems to be the major fly in the ointment…..
Here’s the link (.pdf) that works for me. I’d host the file myself but I do not want to run into the copyright police.
Another must-read piece by Lankov and well placed. (Molodyets!). It is certainly getting harder for the DPRK to keep their alternate universe hermetically sealed and stopping the disturbing evidence that a better world exists outside. But “toppling” is easier said than done, especially with China working against every sane move in that direction. While he doesn’t say so directly, one has to fear that the defector community does not have enough intellegentsia in their ranks (and Hwang is getting old) to provide leadership and push for change (I am assuming more dissident effort is needed in most scenarios). More effort is clearly called for not just by the US and scholarships all around with stepped up broadcast can’t hurt. But my hunch is that any new radio towers would be better off built in Japan, rather than the South.
I agree with a lot of what Lankov says, but I disagree that the NK regime is anywhere near collapse. There’s a number of reasons I don’t think there will be any change in NK any time soon.
1. No-one in the region wants regime change. Certainly not China, Russia or S.K. Even Japan is probably quite happy with the current regime. A united (and unstable) Corea could pose significant future security problems, partiularly if it allies itself with China. Even the U.S might not be that interested in the wall coming down - realpolitik dictates security first, suffering of foreign citizens a distant second.
2. Confucianism and the korean tendency to obey their superiors no matter what plays a significant part in the continued stability of the NK system. One of the reasons you can’t compare it to germany or the former soviet block. You only have to look at recent reports coming out of the country to understand that the personality cult is alive and well. Few will dare to rock the boat, either now or anytime soon. If you look back in history, Korea suffered far more under the Yangban than North Koreans do now, but it took a foreign power to exact change by force (admittedly with some inside aid).
3. We’ve heard this prediction before. The famine in the 90s was a huge blow. Lots of commentators said the North Korean regime wouldn’t survive it. History shows that it made little difference. Perhaps there is more outside info geting in now, but Cuba had outside info getting in for decades and didn’t change.
Sorry, I don’t buy it. Kim Jung Il is here to stay IMHO. (although I applaud all the ideas Lankov has to at leats try. I’d alos add to that a massive and sustained leaflet and food item drop.
hoju_saram got it perfect. His reason 2&3 are right on the mark.
When I read Lankov’s article the same points came to my mind as well. Koreans are different from Russians and even from the Chinese.
Koreans are still stuck in 18th century where “nation” comes before any ideology or even food. In the last decade, Koreans are literally starving to death. Yet, many believed in Communist society, the Worker’s paradise, so much so that they praised Kim Jongil while dying of hunger. Very similar to some Germans under Nazism.
These people have very strong belief in the society they are in. In the movie, JSA, the NK officer literally spat out the Choco Pie when SK soldiers made fun of Kim Jongil. Many NK citizens are fervent believers of Communism and Kim Jongil. They were the underclass(ssangnom) before Communism took over and they welcome Communist form of government. The true believers!
Kim Jongil will start a war when his regime is threatened by outside forces. This is why it is best for SK or even the US not to engage. Just let them be. When SKs travel to the North and start dialog with regular NKs(this is strictly forbidden even now and will be so next ten years), KJI will feel threat. His regime may be challenged. That is when he will start the Korean War II.
He will win.
The halls of punditry and academia are littered with the corpses of those claiming North Korea is on the verge of collapse. You may as well be claiming that the Iraqi insurgents are dead-enders in their last throes on the verge of defeat.
My support too for hoju_saram’s dismissal of Lankov’s optimism in his rather trivial suggestions.
Especially misguided is Lankov’s idea that subsidizing the education of thousands of North Koreans here in the South would somehow hurt KJI. People with economic potential naturally migrate to better economic conditions. China’s peasants move to Shanghai, anyone in Saskatchewan or Newfoundland with skills and education has moved to Ontario or Alberta, any similarly talented East German moved West, etc. It’s just bizarre to think that Norks now living in the South are somehow waiting for regime change to go back to the north.
I can’t say that a measly million spent on supporting some subversive radio stations would be a bad investment, though.
For the record: I do not expect NK to collapse in near future, as long as KJI is alive and is capable of exercising daily control over the state management. It is possible, but not very likely. But it is within our power to increase the probability of collapse and/or dramatic change, especially after KJI’s death. While I agree with Linkd that my suggestions are “trivial,” the problem is that almost nothing is done to pursue even such simple and seemingly obvious measures. The defectors groups do not have funds, defectors do not get education sufficient to enter the influential circles in SK, and radio stations are on air only for a short time.
Wow! Lankov’s a real person! Who knew? Sorry if I sounded too aggressive.
Since we have you here, though, what do you think of the possibility that some of the symptoms you suggest as destabilizing are actually stabilizing? That is, KJI can’t provide for his people, so they are providing for themselves though cross-border illicit trade with China? Border guards and bureacrats can’t make a living off the state, so they make a living off extortion? KJI lets this continue, and more importantly, hundreds of thousands of his local ‘officials’ let it continue, since it keeps the country marginally afloat, and poses no real threat to the regime?
I have to agree, it would certainly be good to do the small things we can do now, at reasonable financial and political costs, until the opportunity to do something bigger and more effective comes along. Engagement can help, although of course it should be targeted towards benefiting the common people as far as possible.
hoju_saram’s #5 is good clear thinking, but i will make these disagreements with or observations on his three points of why he doesn’t think there will be any change in NK any time soon:
1. No-one in the European region wanted or was actively working for regime-change in Europe in 1988; the USA’s efforts were almost entirely rhetorical. That didn’t stop or even delay the fall of the Berlin Wall once the East German citizens decided they didn’t want to or have to put up with communism any longer. When enough North Koreans have made that decision, regional opinion won’t matter much.
2. Germany and Russia both certainly did have long traditions of authoritarianism and obedience. Remember that the right of revolution against unjust government is a fundamental in Confucianism, no matter how strongly aristocratic elites try to ignore that and emphasize “loyalty”. Korean tradition includes a strong element of rebellion once the situation has become “intolerable”, easy to see in South Korea today. The North Koreans obviously have an extremely long fuse before their explosive breaking-point — it has been world-record-setting-long, to our amazement — but we should never assume that there is no breaking-point. There WILL come a time when they just can’t take it anymore… Getting more information in there could help to speed it along.
3. This is true, i myself was “predicting” the imminent collapse of the régime back in 1986
But just because the prediction hasn’t come true yet, despite the great famine, doesn’t mean it won’t come true. Just because the big earthquake destroying California’s West Coast hasn’t come along yet doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to buy real estate there without lots of insurance…
Quote Wow! Lankov’s a real person! Who knew? Sorry if I sounded too aggressive. End of Quote
Why should you sound “nice”? You said what you think, you were not rude, and I basically know you were right.
Quote Since we have you here, though, what do you think of the possibility that some of the symptoms you suggest as destabilizing are actually stabilizing? That is, KJI can’t provide for his people, so they are providing for themselves though cross-border illicit trade with China? End of Quote
I think that this is de-stabilizing in a long run. They are learning that North is lagging behind everybody, and that South Korea is a land of milk and honey. They are unlikely to start anything, but with this knowledge everything will start falling apart very fast once the people feel some cracks in the authority. Judging by the recent news, KJI sees this penetration as a threat. This is the reason why they use the aid they are getting now to re-start the PDS and make sure that everybody goes to his/ her official job, and also try to scale down the private markets. Thus they make sure that people would not wander round, learning improper things and exchanging stories. It remains to be seen whether these efforts will succeed (my guess: probably not).
Quote Border guards and bureacrats can’t make a living off the state, so they make a living off extortion? KJI lets this continue, and more importantly, hundreds of thousands of his local ‘officials’ let it continue, since it keeps the country marginally afloat, and poses no real threat to the regime? End of Quote
Yes, it is OK, but again, officials take bribes for looking other way even when it comes to rather serious matters. In past, when you were caught with a free tuning radio set (a prohibited item), while listening to a foreign broadcast, you should be ready for 10-15 years in prison camps. Now, a relatively small payment in cash (50 or 100 USD perhaps) will not just get you out of trouble, but will get you your short-wave radio back! Similarly, officials take bribes for checking attendance at the indoctrination sessions or work attendance while people are traveling around, doing small business and learning things they should not know. Late Kim Il Sung learned from his great teacher, Comrade Stalin: control is everything, without control things will start falling apart, especially in such a corrosive environment – a destitute country in a booming region, with dirty rich “another half”.
QUIOTE No-one in the European region wanted or was actively working for regime-change in Europe in 1988; the USA’s efforts were almost entirely rhetorical. END OF QUOTE
Dear Sanshinseon, I would slightly disagree, since I was on the other side of the iron curtain. Yes, nobody expected that the Soviet bloc would collapse in such a near future. And nobody acted on such assumption. However, the US and other Western countries did fund large broadcast program which was very efficient. Everybody around me was listening to this broadcast, with the neutral and objectivist BBC being most popular among my friends and family members. FYI I came from a working class background, from the environment where people were generally positive towards the system. But they listened nonetheless, and by the mid-1980s it was an open secret that the economy was performing badly, compared to the West, and that our freedoms were non-existent. How did we learn it? Through radio, but also through stories of people who had been “there”, and through the officially approved cultural exchanges (Western movies etc.). Also, the West supported an exile community which included some people of great authority, and these people could write and publish some critical stuff about the system. Through manifold channels it reached us, was illegally copied and widely read. Once again, I am not talking about some dissenting groups, I am talking about teenagers with interest in the politics, but generally quite pro-government. So, when Gorbachev began reforms, everybody welcomed it. Even pro-communist people (and there was a lot of them) knew that something seriously bad had happened with the system.
Ah, we are in agreement, dear Lankov. When i wrote “the USA’s efforts were almost entirely rhetorical” i don’t think i was using the correct final word there; what i meant was that the West’s support for change mostly consisted of words, not physical actions such as shipping guns or even Xerox machines to the Eastern dissidents, as is done in many Third World conflicts. I am supporting your contention that increased broadcasts into North Korea and other increasing of information-flow would be helpful in this situation, towards the kind of change that we would all like to see happen up there.
OK, so how about we give these guys their funds - and rifles; have the CIA train them, and send them in slipped in by boat over the bay of…
What? What did I day?
QUOTE OK, so how about we give these guys their funds - and rifles; have the CIA train them, and send them in slipped in by boat over the bay of… END OF QUOTE
Hmmm… Is not Iraq one war too many?
What? What did I say?
Lankov,
NK is not like Russia or China.
It is more like Cuba or Iran. NKs believe in their system, so much so that they are willing to die of starvation.
Their loyal attitude toward Kim Jongil is without question. It has been fifty years of heavy indoctrination without no contact with outside world. And, their worship of KJI is in religious ferver.
When KJI dies, his son will take over and continue. However, I have strong suspicion that KJI will start a war in his lifetime. As the US forces withdraw, he will have his chance.
Pouring money and resources will only fill KJI’s pocket and help him to strengthen his grip on the population. PyengYang and some border regions are Disneyland designed to fool the outsiders. Nothing changed in the country side; they are all waiting for the red balloon to go up.
@Lankov,
I think Captain BBQ was being facetious. The “bay of…” reference at the end of his post is an oblique reference to 1961 Bay of Pigs fiasco.
actually, not too long ago, South Korean media reported that North Korea announed themselves that the next dude in charge will not necessarily be one that bears the Kim blood line.
I speculate this is what China told them to do. No princes becoming kings after the current Kim croaks.
The reasoning was that even the elite will be compelled to rebel if another Kim takes office, and especially if that Kim also fails to alleviate hunger and meeting basic human needs.
So, I agree with Lankov. It will be Kim’s elite Pyong Yang citizens who will eventually show dissent and rebel.
China knows this, too.
That’s why China pressured North Korea to make such an annoucnement as “no 3rd generation Kim as next ruler of North Korea.”
Dr. Lankov is absolutely right on this.
It was ytn, chosun, or ap.
Lankov, what do you make of the rumors that Kim Jong-woon, Kim Jong-il’s officially recognized third son, was picked as the next North Korean leader?
QUOTE Lankov, what do you make of the rumors that Kim Jong-woon, Kim Jong-il’s officially recognized third son, was picked as the next North Korean leader? END OF QUOTE
Nothing. We hear a new set of rumours about succession twice a year, for nearly a decade (more frequently in recent years). So, unless we have clear confirmations - that is, increasingly visible signs of a Kim The Third’s personality cult - I would be inclined to ignore all such talks. Only wehn/if few people cofirm that somebody’s pictures are displayed, and references to some “young general, star of Pyongyang” will start popping up in the North Korean press (and not one reference, but few!) I would start taking these statements seriously.
wjk,
China has been saying similar thing all throughout Kim IlSung’s life time. And, it disapproved Kim’s giving the throne to his son.
But, do you know what? This is all talk.
Russia and China love the NK as is. Kims, the father and the son, has served these bosses like an Uncle Tom. Like a house nigger. Perfect servants, they are.
I sincerely believe NK nuke and missles are developed according to China’s ambitious plan of threatening SK and Japan into submission. NK is just a thug carrying out the boss’s wish.
China loves to play a two-faced mob boss.
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