The Marmot’s Hole

Skeptics justifiably doubt the prospects for success of the recent nuclear deal hatched in Beijing. Others are more sanguine. Our Marmot just doesn’t care.

Any assessment of negotiations with the Norks must pit lessons of the past (”They’ll renege in T-10, 9, 8,…”) against hopes for the future (”Maybe this time…”). What gets lost in the shuffle is an understanding of psychology. Money quote from a recent piece on hawkishness in Foreign Policy:

Modern psychology suggests that policymakers come to the debate predisposed to believe their hawkish advisors more than the doves. There are numerous reasons for the burden of persuasion that doves carry, and some of them have nothing to do with politics or strategy. In fact, a bias in favor of hawkish beliefs and preferences is built into the fabric of the human mind.

How does this play out at the negotiating table?

A policymaker or diplomat involved in a tense exchange with a foreign government is likely to observe a great deal of hostile behavior by that country’s representatives. Some of that behavior may indeed be the result of deep hostility. But some of it is simply a response to the current situation as it is perceived by the other side. What is ironic is that individuals who attribute others’ behavior to deep hostility are quite likely to explain away their own behavior as a result of being “pushed into a corner” by an adversary. The tendency of both sides of a dispute to view themselves as reacting to the other’s provocative behavior is a familiar feature of marital quarrels, and it is found as well in international conflicts.

There is certainly a time and place for hawkishness. But it bears noting the psychological roots and biases of such a position even when grappling with an interlocutor as unreliable as Kim Jong Il.

In orchestrating this most recent deal, by the way, it looks as though Condi and Co. decided to skirt the usual hurdles at Cheney’s policy shop, which explains why we’ve seen so much indignation among NSC folks and hard-liners like Josh Bolton.

[A post-post introduction: Robert has graciously opened the Marmot's Hole to me, for which I humbly thank him. He's also asked that I provide some biographical background, so here you have it. I am Michael Richardson (unrelated to the Richardson of DPRK Studies fame), a 3.5-year resident of Korea (1 in Gwangju, 2.5 in Seoul), future IR grad student (applications pending in the U.S.), and devotee of good 추어탕. I hereby submit my musings to you, the denizens of this here Hole.]