Last week* I said that I thought there would be two results of Goh Kun’s dropping out of the presidential race. First, Lee Myung-bak would get a bump. Second, that whatever new party emerges on the left will be more likely to nominate a progressive.
Since then a couple of polls have come out with slightly contradictory findings. This one says that Lee did indeed get a bump (Korea Times):
Latest surveys showed former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak is the one who has benefitted most from former Prime Minister Goh Kun’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential race…
..In a survey of 500 people by the Munhwa Ilbo, a Korean-language daily, the former Seoul mayor kept his dominant position with 58.8 percent, up from 44.9 percent in the daily’s poll on Dec. 27
However, the same K Times pieces also mentions a poll from Realmeter which has Lee’s numbers standing still. It has both GNP moderate Sohn Hak-kyu and Uri progressive Chung Dong-young gaining (although both are still in the single digits).
Which poll is more correct? Like with many such variations, I think that spliting the difference would be the best course. It makes sense that Goh fans would not want to all jump to Lee since he is a GNPer. Everyone has been saying that Goh’s biggest base of support was in Jeolla. I believe that is true (although I have no proof), so it would be logical for Lee’s gain to be limited since the folks down there will not be voting for anyone from the GNP anytime soon. I personally think Chung’s bump is temporary. He is a well-known figure and I believe his rise is mainly a reflection of high name ID. I think that another progressive figure will rise past him over the next few months.
Of course, that does not explain the apparent rise of Sohn’s numbers, although the fact that some in the Uri party are wooing him may indicate that he is considered to be a different bread of GNPer.
BTW, another interesting developement noted in the Realmeter piece is that the Democratic Party’s numbers have tanked since Goh’s withdrawal. That may weaken their position in upcoming maneuvers to create a new progressive party ahead of this year’s presidential election.
BTW, Realmeter has regular tracking polls on the presidential race and party rankings.
*(I know that there is a least one reader who hates to see me digging up my old posts but, as a budding pundit, I like to know how I do in the prediction game since making correct predictions is one of the signs of good punditry.)
9 Comments
Thanks for the update Mr. Jackson.
The increase in Sohn’s numbers is interesting but neither here nor there vis-a-vis the fortunes of Uri-dang and the left. My sense - based on conversations with some progressive conservative GNP members of the national assembly - is that Sohn is highly regarded by such progressive Conservative elements of the GNP (as distinct from the hard right and the careerist opportunists), but is also regarded as someone who’s time has not yet come. Moreover, they seem to think that Sohn is quite sincere about his stated unwillingness to bolt the party (which they regard as a worthy (and unusual) principled position) given his conservative credentials and beliefs. Whether because of his beliefs or his appreciation of the unlikelihood of his being able to accomplish much of anything that he values (other than possible self-aggrandizement)if he were to try to put together a political bricolage based on appealing to conservative (or partially disillusioned?) progressive(i.e., leftist) elements spun off of the Uri centrifuge, I don’t see Sohn is being much of a factor in the upcoming election, except to whatever extent he can influence internal GNP policy.
I think it’s only natural that Sohn benefits from Goh’s dropping out, since Goh and Sohn are both center-right. But in this year’s election there is absolutely no chance for Sohn to win the GNP primary over Park or Lee, so this temporary benefit probably does not mean much.
He is not too old and will stand a good chance in the next election if he remains patient and prudent. If, on the other hand, blinded by short-term benefits, Sohn decides to befriend center-left politicians and quit the GNP, then he will be labeled a traitor and suffer the damage for a long time.
the latest dirt on Lee Myung Bak, coming from Lt. Okamoto’s daughter (Park Chung Hee’s daughter, Ms. Park Geun Hye), is that
Lee Myung Bak did not serve his 3 years in the ROK army.
Yes, the Dae Gu lady is playing dirty.
Then again, you might be interested in knowing that…
Kim Yong Sam and Kim Dae Jung never served a day in the ROK army, either.
I’m pretty sure of the above fact, because I heard if from a former ROK army Vietnam War veteran.
Lt. Okamoto’s daughter should stop slinging dirt and pulling out the goon dae card. It’s the same card that got Noh Moo Hyun in the blue house.
Let’s not rely on that card again.
Lee Myung Bak all the way into the Blue House.
But Koreans who are especially sensitive about their hard years in the goon dae might not find it easy to forget.
The other dirt on Lee is that Lee was born in Japan. So what? Dirty rotten Lt. Okamoto’s ghosts.
or was it Lt. Takaki?
the point i was trying to make last time, andy, about dragging up your old posts is this: let us be the judge of your punditry. don’t hit us over the head with your own perceived brilliance. you’ll build up a loyal following much more readily. in any event, as i said last time around, thanks for the detail.
As I could see the fight between Lee and Park getting worsen for the GNP’s presidential nomination. I assume Roh is very much delighted and actually he might be the real winner of Goh Kun’s dropping out. And seems like Korean politicians messing around on the playground where Roh wants to practice his tactic “Shake and Screw the foundation then move in”
Sohn is not aggressive enough to be risk taker to take bait from Uri.
Of course, the Democratic Labor Party is more than happy to take all Chul Sae politicians too increase their pie.
@wjk: Dakaki Masao, I believe…
Btw, Park never explicitly stated that Lee’s history of not serving the army should deter him from becoming a president. She was merely pointing out the obvious flaw in Lee’s argument that only those who have first-hand experience in raising kids can come up with a good education policy, a logic that Park obviously does not agree with.
As far as I know, Park never used any personal attacks against Lee, who, on the other hand, makes me hate him every time he opens his mouth.
thanks, ZZOOzzoo. After further research, I realized that kimsoft was right.
Park Chung Hee went from Park Chung Hee to Takaki Masao to … Okamoto. Why? Takaki Masao wasn’t Japanese enough, and kind of sounded like a Korean name.
So, I’ll call him Lieutenant Okamoto.
I think personally that the only way HanNara will lose in the Presidential election is if Park Geun Hye becomes their candidate.
Read this
Japanese like to say that Korea settled matters with Japan thru Park in the 60’s. There was more than considerable evidence that this was not the will of the South Korean people. Lee Myung Bak will tell you that himself. He was pretty much jailed for protesting it.
Lt. Okamoto is credited for the economic miracle, but the only other example of economic growth under a pure dictatorship is the
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC of China. That deserves a thought, when people say economic growth would have happenned without Lt. Okamoto.