It makes perfect sense for KJI to carpet bomb Seoul to show that he is the “liberator” of Korean people. (Koreans are still in 20th century and this now debunked ideology make good sense to stupid Koreans including Uri pigs)

Yep, he will start the war by carpet shelling Seoul with his long-range artillery positioned near DMZ.

I think the People’s Army is the type of genocidal a%%h01es who would come down to South Korea and “forage” goods, fuel and “live off the land.” If anything, there is probably more food sittin in South Korean super markets and warehouses then in DPRK underground bunkers. This off course means the civillians will face starvation.

I don’t think DPRK would concentrate it’s initial volleys at Seoul, because for every shell they are aiming at an apartment complex in Seoul, means one less military target they are hitting. (a trully crappy news if you happen to be a trully brave and dedicated servicemen) The whole purpose of a surprise attack is to catch the other guy with the pants down, and this probably isn’t the best way to do this. Especially considering allied forces will quickly figure out where they are firing from and take them out in a counter barrage. BUT. You figure that a war will cause mass panic, and panicking citizens will be driving away from Seoul causing gridlocks everywhere making war a logistical nightmare for allied forces. Now I’m sure that allied commanders have been preparing just for this for the past 50 years, but you figure DPRK is still going to want to create this kind of chaos. So you figure they would aim couple at Seoul just to panick people. So… Anybody could die from this unlucky strike. especially if it’s carrying biological/chemical weapons. And you know they are the kind of crazy f&8kjockeys to actually do it. They are already international pariahs, so it’s not like they are losing PR war over it. Nor does KJI really care if his people die in a nuclear inferno. We on the otherhand, if we drop a tactical nuke on PyongYang, even if it’s perfectly justified–we’ll start getting hate mails from amnesty international. Even a country like Japan, which is strongly right leaning nowadays will go into seizures if they see mushroom clouds. And we are NOT going to use biological weapons on them. So would we really respond by chemical weapons? I just can’t see US responding by using WMD, and you figure that’s what KJI figures. So they attack us with Sarin and Anthrax, and we retaliate with MOABs. Until we start to invade into DPRK, at which point, he’ll probably start detonating his “small” yield nukes at our servicemen. Then we unleash armageddon and become international pariahs.

Anyway, KJI has played his cards really well. He is succeeding in a “divide and conquer” strategy. Roh has been an absolute retard, and the only reason why US is probably still in Korea is to prevent DPRK from thinking it’s “winning” by cleaving the US-ROK alliance.

My point is, even if their initial strike isn’t to obliterate Seoul, which it won’t be– enough crazy sh17 will inevitably fall upon you. All that nuclear fallout has to land somewhere… But even if you survive anthrax spores and live high enough on the apartment to be away from settling nerve gas fog over the parking lots, you will still have to eat and drink water. Think Hurricane Katrina, except like 10 times worse, because there is no huge stadium complex to shelter you.

It might not seem to make sense that KJI would actually bring on the apocalypse which will guarantee his death, but from his seat, it looks like he will inevitably go the way of Ceusceu. And you know he is the kind of annoying pr1ck who would turn the RISK board over when he is losing. We’ve already seen that they do things a little different then we in the normal world do, and that’s honest to god, not a simple caricature of what it’s like over there.

But a friend who’s knowledgable in military matters pointed out to me that there would really be no reason to attack Seoul as it would gain the Norks absolutely nothing and would guarantee their demise. About the only reason for doing it would be as a last ditch desperation ploy once they knew that they were already doomed. Though he may be right, I still feel nervous.

You are wrong. The key isn’t the sanctions. That might “tip” over KJI. But the real tidal wave is the destruction of NK information blockade. This is unstoppable, and it’s already broken.

How much do you think the United States can give to DPRK to keep KJI around? Even at the current rate of gift giving by China and ROK, DPRK is pretty screwed. Even if US gives them a billion dollars a year, it’s too late to save KJI. What would KJI do with a billion? It won’t be for economic reforms. But I really doubt US taxpayers will agree to sending them a billion bucks.

If they have electricity, the NK people will watch South Korean tv dramas. If the NK people have some savings, then they will get “uppity” and demand more. KJI is fighting a battle he cannot win. The only concession of “real” value to KJI isn’t oil or electricity. KJI states he wants US to change it’s “attitude” towards DPRK. If we were to parse that statement, it probably means KJI wants us to shut down VOA, RFA, and help stop the flow of refugees. It ultimately means they demand that we become complicit in their human rights abuses.

Most of DPRK isn’t PyongYang loyalists. They are pretty much peasant farmers/factory workers/miners in the rural areas who have learned the price of trusing in the public distribution system. Only problem is that they don’t have guns and means to organize. But sooner or later… Even in SK Kwangju massacre, the local police force unleashed it’s armory to Kwangju citizens to fight against the military junta. It might seem like wishful thinking, but it could happen in the North.

Already we hear about protests and public dissent. We know food is still scarce, disease rampant, NK central power is clearly losing control over local officials.

This news about “save facing” I must agree with it. First, dismantling counterfeiting operation is probably a lot easier to verify. It’s also nice knowing that they are not pumping out greenbacks.

Anyway. My crystal ball says that this spring will be hard. Not just because of food (which some people claim are not in jeopardy) but also due to heating fuel. Now if that leads to uncontrollable protests, and NK decides to attack, then their only really logical time frame for attack is in Korea’s monsoon season when superior allied airforce won’t be as threatening. They’ll probably throw everything at you including chemical weapons and hope that US won’t use nukes for political reasons.

I don’t know. I’m making that stuff up, since I don’t know anything about military matters. I hope none of that happens. But I think it makes sense.

Bottom line, if you are teaching english say an hour or two south of Seoul, you are probably OK. If not, you are playing dice.

comment #5 - “I hope Christopher Hill is not that stupid to go for this.”

uuhhh huh. It looks like it is Christopher Hill making the offer, actually.

The presses are unique , so having them or their pieces handed over would be meaningful. As further guarantee, the US should demand NK stop purchasing the shade of ink just beside the shade the US buys. Explanation: The US buys it’s currency ink exclusively from a Swiss firm, and has a monopoly on that shade. However, North Korea every year makes large purchases the shade beside the US’s shade (virtually identical) from the same Swiss firm, obviously for it’s counterfeiting operation. Why America has never a)demanded the Swiss firm sell to them all adjacent shades close enough to make greenback counterfeits, or b) told the greedy and untrustworthy Swiss company to stop selling any close shades to North Korea, or c) airstrike all those bastard Swiss sitting on their piles of Aushwitz tooth bullion (Ok maybe I have a problem with the Swiss…it’s all that fucking yodeling, maybe. I swear, after the nuclear holocaust there will be cockroaches eating our remains and the Swiss digging through the ruins of Fort Knox.)