The Marmot’s Hole

The Chosun has a brief piece on what it calls election superstitions.

Being an American political hack, I will just compare those superstitions with some American counterparts.

You can win only when you win North Chungcheong Province - I have heard this before and belief in it would certainly explain some of the pandering we see to Chungcheong from time to time (such as the capital move proposal before the 2002 election).  I personally think that Seoul/Gyeonggi will be more important in 2007 because so many people are pissed about the current administation’s anti-development policies for the region (we will see in 12 months). 

In the States, we have Ohio.  As this piece points out, Ohio has gone with the winner in all but two elections since 1900.  It is the swingingest of swing states.

You can’t win when you come top in opinion polls - Let that be a warning to the GNP (although I think they have already gotten the message from the stuff I have read).

The rule of thumb in the States is that, if someone is ahead in the polls and the money race on January first, he will be his party’s nominee.  It has to be both.  If memory serves, both John Conally and Phil Gramm had the most money in the 1980 and 1996 elections but eventually lost in the Republican nomination to the poll leaders (Ronald Reagan and Bob Dole).

You win when you join hands with your rivals - Goh Kun is trying this one with his attempt to get progressives on board his self-proclaimed center-right campaign.

Fence mending is needed from time to time after intra-party fights, but reaching out to those on the other side is often the kiss of death with your base.  I do not expect anything like the Kim Dae-jung / Kim Jong-pil deal this time around.  On the other hand, considering how many bruised egos we will see in the ongoing Uri and upcoming GNP fights, it can’t be completely ruled out.

In the States, parties always make a big deal of leaders from the other side who defect to theirs but they rarely have much impact.

You can win only when you win over the 40-somethings - That is a logical divide between younger and older voters.

In the States, we always talk about some new swing group (soccer moms, NASCAR dads, angry white men, security moms, etc), but the 800 pound gorrilla of American politics is the marriage gap.  Simply put, singles tend to vote Democratic while married folks tend to vote Republican.  Who ever can best use that gap to his or advantage will win every time.

BTW, I have decided to include a little picture of Park Geun-hye in every political post.  That way anyone who is bored to tears by such things will know what the piece is about and be able to move on without wasting too much of his time.