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	<title>Comments on: No U.S. nukes in South Korea?  So?</title>
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	<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/</link>
	<description>Korea... in Blog Format</description>
	<pubDate>Mon,  7 Jul 2008 00:06:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: virtual wonderer</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58644</link>
		<dc:creator>virtual wonderer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Dec 2006 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58644</guid>
		<description>Seems to be KJI way of saying, "I won't do CVID, because you don't let me look at you with your pants down either."

"...as long as they keep ‘em to themselves."

Well... that is the big problem ain't it?  We went to war with Saddam over the same exact issue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Seems to be KJI way of saying, &#8220;I won&#8217;t do CVID, because you don&#8217;t let me look at you with your pants down either.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230;as long as they keep ‘em to themselves.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well&#8230; that is the big problem ain&#8217;t it?  We went to war with Saddam over the same exact issue.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58455</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Dec 2006 22:43:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58455</guid>
		<description>NCND- "neither confirm nor deny" (ie the presence of US nuclear weapons in a particular ship or particular place).

Had to do a google search, a new acronym to me though of course I remember the policy. 

Here's an interesting historical paper on this subject, updated fairly recently (a "working draft", which I guess explains some blatantly bad typos) by Federation of American Scientists.  

html version: 
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:-0PhXY5QSzUJ:www.nukestrat.com/pubs/NCND.pdf+NCND&#38;hl=en&#38;gl=us&#38;ct=clnk&#38;cd=9&#38;ie=UTF-8

Some interesting historical examples of US allies (including Japan, also Denmark and New Zealand) and the diplomatic exchanges over presence of nuclear weapons/nuclear propulsion on visiting US warships. Some of you may remember the back and forth on this subject with New Zealand during the Reagan administration, unfortunately the paper doesn't seem to have been updated for the last several years, though it has been evidently revised recently (Feb 06).   

But, scroll down to pp 71-74 to see Sep-Oct 1991 US official pronouncements on withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from peacetime deployed US surface warships and attack subs.  A surprise to me, didn't remember that specific announcement.  

The overall tenor of the rest of the paper would seem to indicate currently "no nukes" on Japanese soil, and no nukes on US surface warships/attack subs (non ICBM carrying) in NE Asian waters (to include US carriers?).  

So maybe the only US nukes in the area  (Japan/Korea/surrounding waters) during peacetime are on any deployed strategic subs that happen to be in the area -- &#38; Guam (?!) 

Interesting, if correct.  

One good reason to keep US nukes as far away as possible -- in the event of a sudden nuclear explosion, or accident, on ROK/Japanese soil, or in adjacent waters.  

US needs to be able to assure other concerned governments that it wasn't one of theirs, going off "by accident".  I'm thinking of course of when (oops, I mean "if") the first "smuggled" NorK/Iranian nuke goes off somewhere.  

One scenario involves smart operators setting it off in a harbor, near docked or transiting US warships; given the readiness of much of the world (and domestic US cranks) to believe in world trade center/Pentagon conspiracy theories, it shouldn't be hard to imagine how much more anti-US mileage could be gotten out of an "accidental" nuclear detonation.

Over the next decade, as we see how NorK/Iranian/other nuke programs progress, this might provide a compelling rationale for US to completely abandon NCND. So everybody knows where "ours" are (ie, well away from the forward areas).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NCND- &#8220;neither confirm nor deny&#8221; (ie the presence of US nuclear weapons in a particular ship or particular place).</p>
<p>Had to do a google search, a new acronym to me though of course I remember the policy. </p>
<p>Here&#8217;s an interesting historical paper on this subject, updated fairly recently (a &#8220;working draft&#8221;, which I guess explains some blatantly bad typos) by Federation of American Scientists.  </p>
<p>html version:<br />
<a href="http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:-0PhXY5QSzUJ:www.nukestrat.com/pubs/NCND.pdf+NCND&amp;hl=en&amp;gl=us&amp;ct=clnk&amp;cd=9&amp;ie=UTF-8" rel="nofollow">http://72.14.205.104/search?q=.....p;ie=UTF-8</a></p>
<p>Some interesting historical examples of US allies (including Japan, also Denmark and New Zealand) and the diplomatic exchanges over presence of nuclear weapons/nuclear propulsion on visiting US warships. Some of you may remember the back and forth on this subject with New Zealand during the Reagan administration, unfortunately the paper doesn&#8217;t seem to have been updated for the last several years, though it has been evidently revised recently (Feb 06).   </p>
<p>But, scroll down to pp 71-74 to see Sep-Oct 1991 US official pronouncements on withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from peacetime deployed US surface warships and attack subs.  A surprise to me, didn&#8217;t remember that specific announcement.  </p>
<p>The overall tenor of the rest of the paper would seem to indicate currently &#8220;no nukes&#8221; on Japanese soil, and no nukes on US surface warships/attack subs (non ICBM carrying) in NE Asian waters (to include US carriers?).  </p>
<p>So maybe the only US nukes in the area  (Japan/Korea/surrounding waters) during peacetime are on any deployed strategic subs that happen to be in the area &#8212; &amp; Guam (?!) </p>
<p>Interesting, if correct.  </p>
<p>One good reason to keep US nukes as far away as possible &#8212; in the event of a sudden nuclear explosion, or accident, on ROK/Japanese soil, or in adjacent waters.  </p>
<p>US needs to be able to assure other concerned governments that it wasn&#8217;t one of theirs, going off &#8220;by accident&#8221;.  I&#8217;m thinking of course of when (oops, I mean &#8220;if&#8221;) the first &#8220;smuggled&#8221; NorK/Iranian nuke goes off somewhere.  </p>
<p>One scenario involves smart operators setting it off in a harbor, near docked or transiting US warships; given the readiness of much of the world (and domestic US cranks) to believe in world trade center/Pentagon conspiracy theories, it shouldn&#8217;t be hard to imagine how much more anti-US mileage could be gotten out of an &#8220;accidental&#8221; nuclear detonation.</p>
<p>Over the next decade, as we see how NorK/Iranian/other nuke programs progress, this might provide a compelling rationale for US to completely abandon NCND. So everybody knows where &#8220;ours&#8221; are (ie, well away from the forward areas).</p>
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		<title>By: slim</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58446</link>
		<dc:creator>slim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Dec 2006 17:37:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58446</guid>
		<description>NCND - the "I-promise-I-won't-come-in-your-mouth" policy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NCND - the &#8220;I-promise-I-won&#8217;t-come-in-your-mouth&#8221; policy.</p>
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		<title>By: MrChips</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58433</link>
		<dc:creator>MrChips</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Dec 2006 14:56:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58433</guid>
		<description>The only nukes that will ever be officially recognized are the tridents aboard subs.  Beyond that you'll need to look to US soil to find munitions (AS or SS) that include nukes.  As far as nuke ships, subs regularly pull in to yokosuka for 90 day periods but nothing homeported (or forward deployed).  The strategic aircraft such as 52s, 1s, and 2s won't need pacific-based munitions.  

Now, that doesn't mean nukes aren't stationed abroad it just means the average military/gov't joe (99%) won't have any idea of what's going on and the gov't maintains plausible deniability.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only nukes that will ever be officially recognized are the tridents aboard subs.  Beyond that you&#8217;ll need to look to US soil to find munitions (AS or SS) that include nukes.  As far as nuke ships, subs regularly pull in to yokosuka for 90 day periods but nothing homeported (or forward deployed).  The strategic aircraft such as 52s, 1s, and 2s won&#8217;t need pacific-based munitions.  </p>
<p>Now, that doesn&#8217;t mean nukes aren&#8217;t stationed abroad it just means the average military/gov&#8217;t joe (99%) won&#8217;t have any idea of what&#8217;s going on and the gov&#8217;t maintains plausible deniability.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58431</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Dec 2006 14:37:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/12/08/no-us-nukes-in-south-korea-so/#comment-58431</guid>
		<description>I tried searching globalsecurity.org to see what they said about any US nuclear weapons stored on US bases on Japanese soil.  But it's such a cumbersome site, and my computer is so slow, that I haven't been able to find anything directly addressing the subject.  

Doesn't mean the answer isn't there, of course (maybe I should say "an" answer), globalsecurity seems sometimes to be a few years behind.   

At one time (1970's?) I seem to recall the issue of Japanese home islands port visits (or was it home-basing?) -- by US ships with nuclear weapons aboard -- was a big subject for domestic protests in Japan.  I don't recall seeing anything in the news about this subject for a long time, which is why I think there may be no such weapons stored in Japan currently. 

I don't think there's any ground-based shorter range ballistic, or cruise, missile systems, of any sort, left in US inventory; so anything would have to be either gravity bombs or aircraft launched cruise missiles.  US Army cannon tube nukes are gone from the inventory worldwide also.   

So I speculate that any US nukes kept "permanently" in Northeast Asia would either have to be on US ships afloat, or in Guam. Doubt if there's any on Okinawa currently, but of course who knows. 

If I'm right, the question then becomes under exactly what pre-war conditions would Japan and ROK allow for a short-term redeployment of such warheads onto their soil (ie into US airbases). For short-term storage, until either a war starts, or it is adjudged that the crisis is past and aforesaid nukes can be returned (quietly) to US soil. 

The test-firing of several missile systems into the East Sea/Sea of Japan, and a supposed NorK nuke test, could be the occasion for such redeployment.  OTOH -- the US can load up nukes on long-range bombers (B52/B1/B2) and deliver them to targets worldwide, probably in 12-24 hours.  

So -- maybe any need to have nukes in "pre-war" stockpiles -- on soil of Japan/ROK -- for potential "local" use by USAF tactical aircraft (F15's/ F16's) -- is now seen as obsolete.  

If anybody can find a link that addresses the subject, it would be of interest.  There won't be anything official, of course, I'm thinking of globalsecurity.org, maybe also Federations of American scientists, haven't looked there yet.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I tried searching globalsecurity.org to see what they said about any US nuclear weapons stored on US bases on Japanese soil.  But it&#8217;s such a cumbersome site, and my computer is so slow, that I haven&#8217;t been able to find anything directly addressing the subject.  </p>
<p>Doesn&#8217;t mean the answer isn&#8217;t there, of course (maybe I should say &#8220;an&#8221; answer), globalsecurity seems sometimes to be a few years behind.   </p>
<p>At one time (1970&#8217;s?) I seem to recall the issue of Japanese home islands port visits (or was it home-basing?) &#8212; by US ships with nuclear weapons aboard &#8212; was a big subject for domestic protests in Japan.  I don&#8217;t recall seeing anything in the news about this subject for a long time, which is why I think there may be no such weapons stored in Japan currently. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s any ground-based shorter range ballistic, or cruise, missile systems, of any sort, left in US inventory; so anything would have to be either gravity bombs or aircraft launched cruise missiles.  US Army cannon tube nukes are gone from the inventory worldwide also.   </p>
<p>So I speculate that any US nukes kept &#8220;permanently&#8221; in Northeast Asia would either have to be on US ships afloat, or in Guam. Doubt if there&#8217;s any on Okinawa currently, but of course who knows. </p>
<p>If I&#8217;m right, the question then becomes under exactly what pre-war conditions would Japan and ROK allow for a short-term redeployment of such warheads onto their soil (ie into US airbases). For short-term storage, until either a war starts, or it is adjudged that the crisis is past and aforesaid nukes can be returned (quietly) to US soil. </p>
<p>The test-firing of several missile systems into the East Sea/Sea of Japan, and a supposed NorK nuke test, could be the occasion for such redeployment.  OTOH &#8212; the US can load up nukes on long-range bombers (B52/B1/B2) and deliver them to targets worldwide, probably in 12-24 hours.  </p>
<p>So &#8212; maybe any need to have nukes in &#8220;pre-war&#8221; stockpiles &#8212; on soil of Japan/ROK &#8212; for potential &#8220;local&#8221; use by USAF tactical aircraft (F15&#8217;s/ F16&#8217;s) &#8212; is now seen as obsolete.  </p>
<p>If anybody can find a link that addresses the subject, it would be of interest.  There won&#8217;t be anything official, of course, I&#8217;m thinking of globalsecurity.org, maybe also Federations of American scientists, haven&#8217;t looked there yet.</p>
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