What punitive measures will Seoul take in accordance with UNSC sanctions on North Korea?
None!
The [South Korean] officials claimed that Seoul did not add anything new to the list because the country has already been fully cooperating with international society in preventing the Stalinist state from trading in weapons-related items.”Some will say the government has not changed its North Korea policy at all even though the North conducted a nuclear test,” an official said, asking not to be named. “But Seoul is already second to none in supervising exports and imports to North Korea.”
Oh, and if you were hoping that South Korea would become a full participant in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), I’m sorry to disappoint you:
South Korea has decided against full participation in the U.S.-led program to stop and search suspicious North Korean vessels in order to avoid the possibility of naval clashes, the governing Uri Party said yesterday.
National Assembly’s committee on unification, foreign affairs and trade chairman Kim Won-wung of the Uri Party said, “We have reached a conclusion that we support the spirit of PSI, but we should confine ourselves to our current observer role in the drills,” and that now that Pyongyang has decided to return to the Six-Party talks, there’s no need to do anything that would ruin the mood.
BTW, let me just say that I find it highly disturbing, to say the least, that Kim Won-wung is chairman of the National Assembly foreign policy committee, which he has been apparently since June. When Joshua described him as a “man off his meds against medical advice,” he wasn’t that far off. This guy hates everyone—when he isn’t threatening the U.S. ambassador, blaming the United States for North Korea’s famine (see previous link), criticizing the USFK commander for “making a fuss” about North Korean missile tests or calling for Japan to be kicked out of the six-party talks (same link), he’s submitting parliamentary resolutions making territorial claims on Manchuria.
39 Comments
Good thing that S. Korea’s supply of methamphetamine is secure.
Regarding Kim Won-wung — let the dog bark. It’s almost soup time . . .
Did the guy’s head explode when he said SK was 2nd to none in verification?
If I were God, I would have included that in the human DNA. It would have made human history much better.
The key word is “supervising”. They know just as good as anyone what’s going in and out of N. Korea as well as what’s going on in N. Korea. I mean, they fund it after all. They just don’t do anything about it.
I’m still waiting for Kim Jung-IL heart attack. Looks like Castro’s bit the dust.
Bears win! Bears win!
See what elections do? The ROK can read polls and with Bush an official lame duck, they can piss on him without fear of a sh**t storm in reply. Had the GOP won the election last week, the ROK would likely have done some serious booty kissing and given Bush want he wanted.
Aidan Foster Carter pointed out that ROK stopped delivering food and cement after the missile exercizes. I always wondered why Roh Moo Hyun would do that. I guess I am stupid, because the answer is so simple. DPRK didn’t need food and cement at that time. I remember hearing that the harvest during the fall of 2005 was a “good” harvest. KJI still needed hard cash from Gaesong and Geumgang however—and considering that was the only “positive” aspect of sunshine policy, they can’t let their special project sink.
So. Why stop sending food? Because that’s the easiest program to start again when the reports start trickiling that DPRK people ARE starving to death. So when North Korean people start to drop like flies, Roh Moo Hyun will probably start to send food again—and of course, food isn’t part of the sanction program. Even if it was, United States and Japan are not going to demand cessation of food delivery into North Korea. Hell, at that point whitehouse might even send a small token amount of food to DPRK just to prove that it isn’t using food as a weapon.
So. This is probably the perfect way Roh Moo Hyun could keep giving food AND cash to DPRK in the long run. But he probably got cheesed when DRPK set off the bomb, and probably considered some real “stick” measure. It seems pretty clear that Roh Moo Hyun NEVER entertained the very POSSIBILITY of DPRK testing the nuke, because his response has been completely disorganized. He says one thing, acts another, then his ministers start to leave him, and he plays musical chairs with his remaining cronies. The bottom line is that Roh have no idea what he is doing. He wants to keep his head down and hope that 40 million dollars a year to DPRK might be enough to stop a war. Which won’t.
But seriously. I doubt even Hannara would have gone for the PSI. Roh Moo Hyun should have killed the Guemgang project to mollify Washington. Which he couldn’t, I guess, for the same reason Bush jr. pushed through with the tax cuts going into war with Iraq—that was his political baby and too much political capital was already spent on something ridiculously stupid to admit to the public.
The way I see it, KJI needs cash to bribe off the DRPK generals. But he needs the rice to keep the lower people from revolting. I guess he isn’t worried about people without guns revolting, since he isn’t demanding food deliveries. Either way he is between a rock and a hard place. Everybody says that revolt has to come from the top, but the rate things are going, it might come from the people without guns.
I don’t think it matters at this point what South Korea does about sanctions. I just spent all weekend listening to freenk radio. The shortwave broadcast from the defector’s group is extremely powerful. These guys don’t bullsh1t. Out of VOA, RFA, KBS World, and Freenk, definitely freenk sends the most powerful message, followed by KBS World, RFA, and the VOA. I must say that VOA has improved since I last heard from them several years ago. In anycase, a quick google action shows that cheap VHS can be had for under $30 bucks. Shortwave radios are more expensive, but you figure in China you can get one for the same amount of money or so. Every single defector keeps in touch with their family in North Korea by cellphone. It’s just a matter of time from now on.
Don’t stay in Korea when noone can know where the tipping point lies. When it happens it probably will happen too quickly to dodge the artillery shells. When the US spy satellites start to see DPRK militarymovements, it’s all over. game over man, game over.
North Korean “entertainment” hasn’t changed in the decades, even with South Korean entertainment supplanting it. It’s admirable that Kim Dae Jung tried to foster reforms in DPRK. I think it was a worthwhile venture. But he needs to admit to the public that it was a total failure. South Korea needs a president who knows what to do when DPRK takes military provocations. South Korea needs a war time leader. What South Korea needs is a Kim Jae Gyu at NIS.
Virtual, I take it you are out of artillery range?
It’s no surprise that Roh is doing nothing, that’s what he’s best at.
It’s time for the US to leave SK.
South Korea being second to none in “supervising exports and imports to North Korea” is obviously a result of their magnificent and unparalleled use of chopsticks.
It’s a fact.
Asking the current Korean government for any illegal activity of N Korea would be like asking a thief to look after your shop.
If the fact that our forces did not protect any vital American interest were not enough, this gives Americans another reason to rethink their $3 billion per annum commitment to the world’s 11th largest economy.
Yonhap had some guy from the Unifiction Ministry claiming that S.K. already had stronger measures against the norks than any other country, and what did he base this on? The gov’t has suspended “80 percent” of the inter-Korean economic cooperation since the missile launches in July, whatever that means.
So they’re counting the (belated, dubious) cutback in funding that helped the norks develop a nuke in the first place as a “sanction.” How fucking lame is that?
Werstern Confucian, US$3 billion is a vastly understated figure — it’s more like US$30 billion. If the Korean defense commitment ties up 1/10 of America’s combat power, and our defense budget is north of US$400 billion, are we really to believe that less than 1% of the budget is spent on the “alliance”? Come on now.
What amazes me is the timing of the announcement. Before the elections, the SK government’s position was ” We are seriously looking into it”
Now with the Democrats more or less in control of Congress, Rumsfield resigning, and Bolton on the way out, SK government and Uri have nothing to fear and have obviously taken the opportunity to show their true colors.
Have to give the SK government and Uri credit for this great strategic footdragging plus their ability to accurately read the political winds of Washington.
Now if they would just put it in positive use then eveyone would be happy.
I think that Guy Sorman is absolutely correct in his assessment that China is mostly to blame for the current state of affairs, regarding North Korea. This has been implicit all along and probably will have to be addressed by America, since the current South Korean Government is unable to affect any meaningful policy over anything and most likely has little leverage with China.
This still does not excuse what passes for policy from the South Korean Government, much of which has been appeasement and a waste of national resources, which could have been used to improve the lot of South Korea instead. Also, considering the additional estimated 400,000 Won per year that the average Korean will pay to make up for the U.S. reducing its defensive role in South Korea, PLUS the housing price bubble (yes, there really *is* a bubble) and a weak economy, just what effect will this Uridang legacy be upon the society?
Readers will find this story invigorating:
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti.....71436.html
And condom sales are up again!
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“Mr. Sorman, a journalist, economist, philosopher and author, was in Korea last week to give a lecture commemorating the achievements of Jean Monnet, considered the architect of European integration.”
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I love these stupid Frenchmen who still think they’re the center of the universe. Didn’t America has something to do with that by stopping the stupid Europeans from fighting each other?
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Speaking to the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper’s Kim Young-hie, Mr. Sorman provided a point of view he called “a bit different” about the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
The North Korean regime is completely dependent on China, Mr. Sorman said, calling Pyongyang “a puppet of the Beijing regime.” Citing his past experience with North Korean officials and trips to the reclusive communist country, Mr. Sorman said Pyongyang could have not started the nuclear gamble without China’s approval.
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Didn’t a five year old came up with this analysis ten years ago?
Art Bell believes if everyone in the world concentrate hard enough you can affect a change in the universal koan.
OK everyone, lets all concentrate and give our dear leader a heart attack, shall we?
We can do it! We can do it!
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So, when’s the changeover to the new Assembly over there?
Roh still have a year left? At least Good ‘old George will be able to out last him.
‘30 billion….’
wow, little korea can get big daddy to cough up 30 billion a year? 30 billion? who’s the fool?
Michael, not only am I out of artillery range, I am also out of Taepodong range.
I really thought even Roh HAD to act after nuke test. I mean, it’s flippin’ thermo nuclear detonation. It’s not just that he is anti-american, he is completely incompetent. Every year, when i thought that he has shown the lowest of lows, he manages to suprise me and show me new lows. It has gotten to a point where I fantasize of having W Bush clone sitting in the Blue House. At least HE has the sense to sack Rumsfeld. took him long enough, but better than never. With Roh, it’s just never. His lineup of cronies don’t ever disappear, they just change seats.
Being Korean American and having family living there (by family, i mean nuclear family members, no pun intended), I completely understand why South Korean people would take an appeasement approach. Roh keeps on saying, “Something that must not have happned happend” (referring to nuke test) and he says “It must not happen” (referring to war). Problem is that because “it must not happen”, he seems to make the contigency plans because well, “it can’t happen.” It’s going to happen whether Roh likes it or not, because he has zero control over this. He should at least know what he is going to do when big crap like this happens–i.e. DPRK tests nuclear bomb. It really makes you think that since Roh acts like he was completely caught with his pants down, what would Roh do if DPRK start to do something more provocative? Say, a lone Rodong missile flying towards Seoul? Answer-> He wouldn’t do nothing. He would wait KJI to say, “woops didn’t mean to fire that one off. Col. Chung is a bit antsy, shaky trigger fingers.” Let’s say US spy satellites see large movements of T-62 tanks. What would Roh do? Roh would do this–>”Jeez, you know, I am not the commander of the allied forces, so when Uncle Sam strikes back and it turned out that DPRK was just doing drills, oh well. Let’s burn some American flags.” Roh wouldn’t do anything. You can’t trust this guy to make the hard decisions. What would he do? He might say, “Oh no DPRK is taking provocative actions. It is now time to concentrate on domestic South Korean issues–let’s reopen the debate on moving the capital.”
He can’t do the very simple thing of stopping Geumgang project. Now you really have to ask yourself. Do you really want to stay in South Korea in the next two years when food aid has largely stopped, DPRK has nukes, and the South Korean leader is a complete imbecile? Ask yourself that question.
i meant to say that Roh makes no contingency plans at all, because he assumes there will be no war. In case anyone actually read my “reepul” and cares.
“…I really thought even Roh HAD to act after nuke test. I mean, it’s flippin’ thermo nuclear detonation….”
Yes but it was an ambiguous “low-order” subterranean one — no video footage to galvanize the masses both North and South. We didn’t get to see a mushroom cloud rising to the sky, with the Dear Leader and retinue clapping their hands in quiet triumph as they watched from a “Dr. No” type control room.
As a matter for objective artistic-like admiration, I regret being unable to behold such a tableux. The world would be agog! (and — what more could they do about it anyway?)
Why, I even have a sneaking suspicion that DPRK atomic mushroom clouds would be unique in the world, in that as they rose to the sky they would spontaneously assume the exact posture of the mausoleum statue of the Great Leader — to include his outstretched hand, “beckoning” (like Captain Ahab) both Koreas towards a bright atomic future.
(posted safely from a spot that is also out of “youdonemewrong” missile range)
Virtual, Roh does have an annoying habit of saying “it must not happen” as a ton of bricks falls on his head. And he obviously had no contingency for the nuke test that everyone was warning about for months.
One of the really tragic things is that they let KJI cut off the family reunions without any real protest–not even the obvious response that NK is using the reunions as a political bargaining chip. Roh should be ashamed of himself. At least as you said stop the totally worthless Geumgang money giveaway.
Why stay here? Good question. I guess it comes down to having friends and in-laws here and having a vague optimism that we can ride out the idiotic Roh gov’t without getting Seoul blown up, just because USFK is still here and watching Pyongyang closely. Later, I dunno.
Obviously, the United States of America is, for allowing emotionalism to cloud a cold-eyed evaluation of the “alliance” and its value.
I’d like to think there’d be a military takeover in SK before things get much stranger. Roh’s cognitive dissonance allowing the republic’s security posture to deteriorate to the point that it has already must have Park Chung Hi rolling in his grave.
Roh and the rest of the Uri party will probably never stop bouncing after the get tossed on election day. The insanity will end soon….ish
As much as I may be tempted to slam the ROK’s feckless foreign policy once more, I can empathize with them on the practical considerations, if not the stated rationale.
In the case of the latter, I really think the ROK’s so-called economic leverage is greatly exaggerated by the South Koreans, so in that sense there is little danger of losing anything other than mindless alms giving in the spirit of romantic nationalism.
S Koreans boarding N Korean ships, however, presents a real world concern — highly likely to lead to serious bloodshed, since one can easily imagine a visceral reaction by the North Koreans should they ever be inspected by their dear southern brothers.
And that leads us back to those amphetamines being routinely smuggled in that Chinese ship that calls into Busan port from North Korea — without hindrance from the politically correct Blue House. It’s examples such as this that makes S Korean foreign policy suspect — even when they may have a valid point to step away from their allies.
In the end, there is really no good answer in solving the N. Korean problem. I think both South Korea and Japan has to go nuclear to
try to put pressure on China. In the end, it’s China that can holds all the cards.
Only way this impasse is going end is when China changes. Berlin Wall only came down when USSR realized their days were numbered. Persistant pressure has to be put on China, whether that’s another Cold War or what not, but our relationship with China is a lot more complicated than what went on during the Cold War.
“S Koreans boarding N Korean ships, however, presents a real world concern” Why would they have to when they have the U.S. Navy waiting nearby to call on? Oh wait, it’s because Korea is “independent” now and can pursue its usual policy of letting NK walk all over it.
Look at Asia now–even Vietnam is starting to warm to the idea of a US military presence in the region to offset China, the self-appointed leader of Asia. Only the dumbasses in the Blue House are pushing away the US.
American and it’s Allies needs to invest in other Asian countries to offset China. Bush administrations has done so many things wrong.
http://rapidrecon.threatswatch.....n-ship-de/
“US$3 billion is a vastly understated figure — it’s more like US$30 billion.”
I think it’s more likely to be $3billion. My understading is that there are around 30,000 American troops statlioned in Korea. If the average salary is $50,000, then total salary bill would be around $1.5billion. And there would be other expenses, but the main one is probably wear and tear of weapons, which is unlikely to be in multiple billion dollars.
An interesting comparison, I suppose it depends on what accounting methods you decide to use to “carry” these costs. If these exact same troops would be doing their same jobs somewhere else (ie back in CONUS), the US taxpayer would still remain on the hook for their salaries, also for the operational cost of their food, clothing, and especially their “big bucks” equipment (jet aircraft, transport planes, tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, Apache helicopters, MLRS, etc etc).
OTOH, if the US Dept of Defense effort on behalf of the land and air defense of the terriitory of the Republic of Korea was a purely “commercial operation” (ie a mercenary effort) — the enormous development and acquisition cost for that portion of expensive US weapons systems present in the ROK would have to be “amortized”, to at least “break even” (we’ll disregard any notion of a “profit”, as American voters don’t put their sons in uniform to be mercenaries). It’s not wholly unprecedented to see it this way — do any of you know that this is approximately the way that the cost of the US military advisory effort in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is computed? (I said “advisory”, not the presence of US combat forces, which btw have now all been withdrawn from KSA).
From the day a US advisor arrives until the day he leaves, the US treasury is reimbursed by the Saudi Ministry of Finance dollar for dollar for his salary. Cost of housing, equipment, a dedicated SUV for both private and “field” usage — all of it comes out of the KSA budget. If this precedent was followed for all US force in the ROK, the cost burden upon the taxpayers of the ROK would seem to me to be potentially enormous, though I’m not a smart enough economist/accountant to do a notional computation.
Of course, this assumes the taxpayers of the ROK would chose to pay such a price, a proposition which seems unlikely. More likely, absent any long-term US military presence (for example, the Chinese “volunteers” left the DPRK in 1958, what if the US forces had all left the ROK a year or two after that) — the current ROK defense posture vs a vs the North would likely be a “low cost” force, more a “mirror image” of what the North currently fields. Ie a lot more manpower (and a much more substantial conscription effort, both in numbers and in length of service). Of course in this case the ROK taxpayers wouldn’t have to pay for lot of sophisticated weapons systems — ones which (it seems to me) they are currently “getting the benefit of” basically for free.
So it really comes down to what “non-economic” view you choose to take of the matter, from where ever you sit on this planet. Just how much is it worth to ROK voters to save the time (of their sons on active service), the worry, and the strain, in order to have these US weapons systems and troops on duty 24/7, year after year, to guard them against what can now be credibly regarded as an internal dispute of the Korean people?
Not to mention the US forces elsewhere in the Pacific and back in CONUS, ready “on call” to reinforce Korean defense — in a day, a week, a month, or even after a year or more of fighting (that is, if you think the US voter/taxpayer would tolerate another lengthy reprise of a “non-nuclear” Korean war. I don’t think that’s going to happen; still it’s not unprecedented, and therefore not impossible, wouldn’t you say?)
The venerable Selig Harrison:
“In addition to the direct costs of its forces in Korea, averaging $2 billion per year, the United States spends more than $40 billion annually to maintain the overall U.S. defense posture in East Asia and the western Pacific on which its capability to intervene in Korea depends.”
http://www.nautilus.org/fora/s.....rison.html
So the U.S. on the aggregate spends far more than $30 billion a year on S.K. if you factor in the neccessary support structure that’s not all on the peninsula.
Harrison’s essay is interesting to read, even if it has some implausible conclusions.
It doesn’t seem convincing to me that the direct costs of American forces stationed in Korea are $2 billion a year, and indirect costs are $28 billion a year.
I also think that, by having American troops in Korea, American government is providing jobs to many Americans who are otherwise unemployable back home in America because of their limited skills in other areas, as John Kerry pointed out recently.
Not only that, if American troops are not in Korea, Korea would be forced to rely on nuclear weapons for its defence. Would that be in America’s interest?
I was led to believe that was what the Korean hagwon industry was for.
I don’t see why not.
“…I also think that, by having American troops in Korea, American government is providing jobs to many Americans who are otherwise unemployable back home in America because of their limited skills in other areas, as John Kerry pointed out recently…”
He later said that was a “botched joke”. Do you believe everything Senator Kerry says, or do you just choose to pretend to believe those of his utterances that you find politically convenient?
Check out the picture at this link
http://www.freerepublic.com/fo.....1163/posts.
Maybe we can get some of the “otherwise unemployable” American troops in the ROK to “do up” a similar sign for Senator Kerry, and get their picture posted on the internet.
And then he’ll take up the cause of American troop withdrawal from ROK with equal alacrity. Every little bit helps.
2) “….Not only that, if American troops are not in Korea, Korea would be forced to rely on nuclear weapons for its defence. Would that be in America’s interest?”
I thought that nowadays “Korea is one”. Which means that “Korea” already has nuclear weapons, no?
I agree it’s not currently in America’s interest for Korea to have them, but my solution for this is to remove America’s ground forces from the southern portion of “one Korea” as soon as possible. This should significantly reduce the likelihood that “Korean” nuclear weapons will ever need to be used; once the “unemployable Americans” are gone from the peninsula, Koreans presumably won’t need their nukes anymore and can set the world an example by dismantling them.
Gaemee, I don’t think you read Harrison’s essay, or you misunderstand. Whether you think it’s convincing or not, the U.S. is in fact spending 10s of billions of dollars in the region and in S.K., directly and indirectly aiding S.K.’s defense, and further as he notes, “the U.S. alliance creates a climate of stability favorable for foreign trade and investment. But no one mentioned what I consider the real, unspoken, underlying reason why the prospect of an end to the U.S. alliance is unsettling to South Korea: the U.S. military presence and the alliance commitment provide the massive economic subsidy to the South mentioned earlier.” This includes the creation of a domestic arms industry in S.K. (often using tech developed in the U.S.) and the revenue it generates.
S.K. is actually getting far more than the direct military spending you belittle, and has been for years: “The subsidy provided by the U.S. presence enables South Koreans to postpone hard choices concerning how fast, and how far, to move toward reunification, and thus it postpones hard choices between civilian and military budgetary priorities.”
You can deny this all you want, but it’s true.
Robert: you’re talking about two different groups of people. One is a group of degree holders, the other is a group of mostly non-degree holders. I do not think the former is in Korea because they’re unemployable at home.
Paul: I don’t actually like John Kerry very much, but I think many people would agree with what he said about the soldiers, although it was politically unwise for him to have said so.
Michael: I haven’t read his essay, but I get the impression that you’re believing in imaginary numbers that don’t make sense.
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[...] See also The Marmot, who points out that certifiable nutcase Kim Won-Ung has been leading the Korean equivalent of the House International Relations Committee since June. Sheesh. [...]