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	<title>Comments on: Korean military already &#8216;hopeful&#8217; following Rummy&#8217;s departure</title>
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	<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/</link>
	<description>Korea... in Blog Format</description>
	<pubDate>Tue,  2 Dec 2008 00:51:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: The Marmot&#8217;s Hole &#187; Pentagon bends over, agrees to 2012 command transfer date</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-72176</link>
		<dc:creator>The Marmot&#8217;s Hole &#187; Pentagon bends over, agrees to 2012 command transfer date</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Feb 2007 14:56:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-72176</guid>
		<description>[...] South Korean side has been downright giddy since Rumsfeld&#8217;s departure, and for good reason. As I said when he left, whatever Rummy&#8217;s other failings, at least he [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] South Korean side has been downright giddy since Rumsfeld&#8217;s departure, and for good reason. As I said when he left, whatever Rummy&#8217;s other failings, at least he [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55083</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 18:03:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55083</guid>
		<description>Some perspective on Rumsfeld's departure from lower level leaders of US troops in Iraq.  

As reported by Times of London, hardly a media outlet that could be characterized as an "apologist" for the US administraton: 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2446536,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&#38;attr=World</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some perspective on Rumsfeld&#8217;s departure from lower level leaders of US troops in Iraq.  </p>
<p>As reported by Times of London, hardly a media outlet that could be characterized as an &#8220;apologist&#8221; for the US administraton: </p>
<p><a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2446536,00.html#cid=OTC-RSS&amp;attr=World" rel="nofollow">http://www.timesonline.co.uk/a.....attr=World</a></p>
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		<title>By: Sperwer</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55036</link>
		<dc:creator>Sperwer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 03:54:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55036</guid>
		<description>My prediction:  Rummy's demise will have absolutely no impact on a steadily accelerating US withdrawal of all ground forces from Korea and the repositioning of any other assets nominally tasked with cooperation with the ROKA in defense of Korea offshore as well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My prediction:  Rummy&#8217;s demise will have absolutely no impact on a steadily accelerating US withdrawal of all ground forces from Korea and the repositioning of any other assets nominally tasked with cooperation with the ROKA in defense of Korea offshore as well.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55028</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 02:19:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55028</guid>
		<description>As to USFK ground forces, battalions and brigades, globalsecurity.org is probably the best unofficial source.  I haven't rechecked it in a long time, just went there to look again, here are the links: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/8army.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/2id.htm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As to USFK ground forces, battalions and brigades, globalsecurity.org is probably the best unofficial source.  I haven&#8217;t rechecked it in a long time, just went there to look again, here are the links: </p>
<p><a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/8army.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalsecurity.org/...../8army.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/2id.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalsecurity.org/.....my/2id.htm</a></p>
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		<title>By: michael</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55019</link>
		<dc:creator>michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 00:34:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55019</guid>
		<description>Well, S.K. is ordering up some AWACS and about 20 F-15s or a similar jet, so they don't seem to be assuming that they can rely on U.S. air support forever. 

Seems also like someone up above said, a "new approach" in Iraq could mean needing a lot more troops before a drawdown, so I think USFK will probably continue to shrink.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, S.K. is ordering up some AWACS and about 20 F-15s or a similar jet, so they don&#8217;t seem to be assuming that they can rely on U.S. air support forever. </p>
<p>Seems also like someone up above said, a &#8220;new approach&#8221; in Iraq could mean needing a lot more troops before a drawdown, so I think USFK will probably continue to shrink.</p>
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		<title>By: MrChips</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55018</link>
		<dc:creator>MrChips</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2006 00:21:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55018</guid>
		<description>"I can only hope this “importance” doesn’t lead to the Yongsan deal getting scrapped."

What Yongsan deal is that?  The one that says the HQ will be moved to Pyongtaek by the end of 2008 but still doesn't have a dime to the budget, let alone any infrastructure under construction in order to facilitate the move?  Won't happen, never had any chance of happening.  ROKs won't foot the bill even though they're the ones pushing the issue.  Notice the 2nd ID move is happening, pushed by the US and paid for by the US...

I don't think Rumsfeld ever felt that 2009 was either any appropriate time for an exchange of wartime control nor a feasible timeframe for transfer.  However, he knew that in order to force the yahoos at MND to ever be prepared for operational command authority he had to give them a tough deadline.  Otherwise ,they would be content to continue their reliance on US help as in the last 50 years.  Too bad Rumsfeld's strategic astuteness and prowess of political manipulation was outweighed in the end by his tactical tomfoolery in Iraq.  Ultimately, he needed to go.  Who's this Gates dude?  just another bureaucrat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I can only hope this “importance” doesn’t lead to the Yongsan deal getting scrapped.&#8221;</p>
<p>What Yongsan deal is that?  The one that says the HQ will be moved to Pyongtaek by the end of 2008 but still doesn&#8217;t have a dime to the budget, let alone any infrastructure under construction in order to facilitate the move?  Won&#8217;t happen, never had any chance of happening.  ROKs won&#8217;t foot the bill even though they&#8217;re the ones pushing the issue.  Notice the 2nd ID move is happening, pushed by the US and paid for by the US&#8230;</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think Rumsfeld ever felt that 2009 was either any appropriate time for an exchange of wartime control nor a feasible timeframe for transfer.  However, he knew that in order to force the yahoos at MND to ever be prepared for operational command authority he had to give them a tough deadline.  Otherwise ,they would be content to continue their reliance on US help as in the last 50 years.  Too bad Rumsfeld&#8217;s strategic astuteness and prowess of political manipulation was outweighed in the end by his tactical tomfoolery in Iraq.  Ultimately, he needed to go.  Who&#8217;s this Gates dude?  just another bureaucrat.</p>
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		<title>By: Maekchu</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55002</link>
		<dc:creator>Maekchu</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 20:23:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55002</guid>
		<description>Kimchipig is right.  The US focus on withdrawing troops followed on the heels of the Koreans nationalistic and anti-American protests over the 2 girls accidentally killed back in 2002.  The Koreans proceeded to burn American flags, protest outside the military gates and have massive candlelight vigils to 'remember" the 2 girls.  All this despite official US apologies from President Bush and massive monetary compesation to the girl's families.  Nothing was ever said about the 100 Koreans who are killed in traffic accidents on a daily basis in Korea (including children) by Korean drivers.  The anti-US forces had their ammo and they made good use of it.  When Rummy, General Campbell and friends took offense and began to discuss pulling out US troops, suddenly the vigils and flag burnings stopped and the Korean govt became indignat over the early troop withdrawl.  

Be careful for what you wish for, you just might get it.  Looks like that 2 years of military obligation for all Korean males might get bumped up to 4 years. Oh, and Korean taxes may have to be raised to replace all that American hardware. Let's see you burn some American flags now bucketheads.  한국사람은 상식이 있지 않는다.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kimchipig is right.  The US focus on withdrawing troops followed on the heels of the Koreans nationalistic and anti-American protests over the 2 girls accidentally killed back in 2002.  The Koreans proceeded to burn American flags, protest outside the military gates and have massive candlelight vigils to &#8216;remember&#8221; the 2 girls.  All this despite official US apologies from President Bush and massive monetary compesation to the girl&#8217;s families.  Nothing was ever said about the 100 Koreans who are killed in traffic accidents on a daily basis in Korea (including children) by Korean drivers.  The anti-US forces had their ammo and they made good use of it.  When Rummy, General Campbell and friends took offense and began to discuss pulling out US troops, suddenly the vigils and flag burnings stopped and the Korean govt became indignat over the early troop withdrawl.  </p>
<p>Be careful for what you wish for, you just might get it.  Looks like that 2 years of military obligation for all Korean males might get bumped up to 4 years. Oh, and Korean taxes may have to be raised to replace all that American hardware. Let&#8217;s see you burn some American flags now bucketheads.  한국사람은 상식이 있지 않는다.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Sheehan</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55001</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Sheehan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 19:09:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-55001</guid>
		<description>There seems to be some confusion between a 'battalion' and a 'brigade'.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There seems to be some confusion between a &#8216;battalion&#8217; and a &#8216;brigade&#8217;.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-54996</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 17:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-54996</guid>
		<description>A further comment: trying to leave aside my own personal opinions in order to speak objectively, what happens with the "transfer" will probably depend upon what pre-conceived views of the Korean situation Gates brings to his new job.  Presumably --whatever they may be -- they will be the ones he developed during his CIA days and his prior service in cold-war era Republican administrations.  

Also dependent upon what his USFK and Pacific Command 4 stars advise him privately about their views of the Korean situation.  As a pure guess, I would say they'll probably reflect the view of their Korean military counterparts, who in turn are presumably realistic about their situation in that they won't  want to take on additional military burdens that they sense their current political leadership isn't willing to fund (regardless of public rhetoric).  

So -- probably -- good old Uncle Sam will end up kicking the can down the road a few more years; relieved, ROK politicians will then be emboldened to go back to US-bashing whenever they feel it's convenient to do so (meaning most of the time).  

Same thing will continue presumably under a potential Dem administration starting in 08, as Dems will be IMO likely to continue with the "safe" commitment to Korea, as an easy way to demonstrate they can be "tough" on defense.  

Now a potential McCain administration starting in 08!  That would be different, as McCain is smart enough to spot (as Rumfeld was and did) the "triangulation" attempts of ROK pols --and tough enough (as Rumsfeld was) to hold their feet to the fire.  It's enough to make one feel a sense of joyous anticipation.  

The only hope for the US-ROK alliance in a McCain administration?  Baduk for President of ROK!  How about it Baduk?  

You'd have to agree to give up your strident rhetoric (also presumably your US citizenship) and show more sympathy and understanding for your domestic ROK political opponents (ie, no more threatening to kill them by bashing their heads in with nightsticks).  Remember, it's US-style politics we want ROK to strive for (ie, where losing an election doesn't mean losing your life, liberty, property -- or some combination thereof).

Ok, on reflection I reckon that last phrase has infuriated some readers ("..we want ROK to have US-style politics").  I'll modify it here and now to "UK-style", or "Canada-style".  Or even "New Zealand-style" (as in "stand down all 'offensive' units of Royal NZ Air force, now that there is no longer any threat").  Works for me!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A further comment: trying to leave aside my own personal opinions in order to speak objectively, what happens with the &#8220;transfer&#8221; will probably depend upon what pre-conceived views of the Korean situation Gates brings to his new job.  Presumably &#8211;whatever they may be &#8212; they will be the ones he developed during his CIA days and his prior service in cold-war era Republican administrations.  </p>
<p>Also dependent upon what his USFK and Pacific Command 4 stars advise him privately about their views of the Korean situation.  As a pure guess, I would say they&#8217;ll probably reflect the view of their Korean military counterparts, who in turn are presumably realistic about their situation in that they won&#8217;t  want to take on additional military burdens that they sense their current political leadership isn&#8217;t willing to fund (regardless of public rhetoric).  </p>
<p>So &#8212; probably &#8212; good old Uncle Sam will end up kicking the can down the road a few more years; relieved, ROK politicians will then be emboldened to go back to US-bashing whenever they feel it&#8217;s convenient to do so (meaning most of the time).  </p>
<p>Same thing will continue presumably under a potential Dem administration starting in 08, as Dems will be IMO likely to continue with the &#8220;safe&#8221; commitment to Korea, as an easy way to demonstrate they can be &#8220;tough&#8221; on defense.  </p>
<p>Now a potential McCain administration starting in 08!  That would be different, as McCain is smart enough to spot (as Rumfeld was and did) the &#8220;triangulation&#8221; attempts of ROK pols &#8211;and tough enough (as Rumsfeld was) to hold their feet to the fire.  It&#8217;s enough to make one feel a sense of joyous anticipation.  </p>
<p>The only hope for the US-ROK alliance in a McCain administration?  Baduk for President of ROK!  How about it Baduk?  </p>
<p>You&#8217;d have to agree to give up your strident rhetoric (also presumably your US citizenship) and show more sympathy and understanding for your domestic ROK political opponents (ie, no more threatening to kill them by bashing their heads in with nightsticks).  Remember, it&#8217;s US-style politics we want ROK to strive for (ie, where losing an election doesn&#8217;t mean losing your life, liberty, property &#8212; or some combination thereof).</p>
<p>Ok, on reflection I reckon that last phrase has infuriated some readers (&#8221;..we want ROK to have US-style politics&#8221;).  I&#8217;ll modify it here and now to &#8220;UK-style&#8221;, or &#8220;Canada-style&#8221;.  Or even &#8220;New Zealand-style&#8221; (as in &#8220;stand down all &#8216;offensive&#8217; units of Royal NZ Air force, now that there is no longer any threat&#8221;).  Works for me!</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H.</title>
		<link>http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-54992</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Nov 2006 16:09:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/11/09/korean-military-already-hopeful-following-rummys-departure/#comment-54992</guid>
		<description>Ref: "groundpounders" on the Korean peninsula: 

If my understanding is correct, there's very little resident-in ROK US infantry left in 2nd "Infantry" Division (only 1 battalion of mechanized (Bradley fighting vehicle)?  I admit I've lost the big picture of what's going on with the other 2nd ID infantry battalions (2?) that rotated into Iraq a while back).  

The heavy US "punch" consists basically of the 2 (?) remaining battalions of M1 tanks, the battalions (2?) of MLRS (multiple rocket launchers with ATACMS (single large rocket) for "counterbattery", the standard 155 mm conventional gun tube artillery battalions, the attack helicopter (Apache) battalions, and the Patiot anti-aircraft/anti-missile air defense battalions.  

And the command structure to integrate them and the ROK forces into the magical, mythical "hundreds of thousands" of other US troops that are supposed to arrive in the totally unthinkable event of another 1950 style invasion; presumably they'd arrive on spaceships from Mars.  

Sarcasm aside, the current US ground force is suitable mainly for the "mobile" role of repelling a 1950-style invasion by the North (but not for "invading the North, or "occupying" the North after an internal North political collapse).  

And -- I gather from reading this blog that the consensus of the people and government of the ROk is that the very thought of a 1950-style invasion is politically completely out of the question.  Leaving aside their sentimental longing for reunification, I agree -- China and Russia won't assist the North (as they did in the bad old days) with the massive logistics needed for such an invasion.

So what are we still doing there?  Who are we to tell the Koreans that we know better?  Turn it over and bring the ground forces home.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ref: &#8220;groundpounders&#8221; on the Korean peninsula: </p>
<p>If my understanding is correct, there&#8217;s very little resident-in ROK US infantry left in 2nd &#8220;Infantry&#8221; Division (only 1 battalion of mechanized (Bradley fighting vehicle)?  I admit I&#8217;ve lost the big picture of what&#8217;s going on with the other 2nd ID infantry battalions (2?) that rotated into Iraq a while back).  </p>
<p>The heavy US &#8220;punch&#8221; consists basically of the 2 (?) remaining battalions of M1 tanks, the battalions (2?) of MLRS (multiple rocket launchers with ATACMS (single large rocket) for &#8220;counterbattery&#8221;, the standard 155 mm conventional gun tube artillery battalions, the attack helicopter (Apache) battalions, and the Patiot anti-aircraft/anti-missile air defense battalions.  </p>
<p>And the command structure to integrate them and the ROK forces into the magical, mythical &#8220;hundreds of thousands&#8221; of other US troops that are supposed to arrive in the totally unthinkable event of another 1950 style invasion; presumably they&#8217;d arrive on spaceships from Mars.  </p>
<p>Sarcasm aside, the current US ground force is suitable mainly for the &#8220;mobile&#8221; role of repelling a 1950-style invasion by the North (but not for &#8220;invading the North, or &#8220;occupying&#8221; the North after an internal North political collapse).  </p>
<p>And &#8212; I gather from reading this blog that the consensus of the people and government of the ROk is that the very thought of a 1950-style invasion is politically completely out of the question.  Leaving aside their sentimental longing for reunification, I agree &#8212; China and Russia won&#8217;t assist the North (as they did in the bad old days) with the massive logistics needed for such an invasion.</p>
<p>So what are we still doing there?  Who are we to tell the Koreans that we know better?  Turn it over and bring the ground forces home.</p>
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