Comments on: Hold onto your hats for this one… http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/ Korea... in Blog Format Sat, 11 Oct 2008 00:22:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: usinkorea http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52840 usinkorea Fri, 20 Oct 2006 04:05:42 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52840 My read on the nuke test and how it came about has been that the regime is panicing over something - and it would seem to me the only thing that would make them panic like this is if the regime saw the possibility of some forms of rebellion in the near future and they wanted to warn eveybody off - warn the US to stay out and not take advantage of the situation, warn China of the same and to warn China it had better making up in material aid what Pyongyang is losing due to the recent US moves on its illegal cash flows and warning the people inside NK the regime has ultimate power still. I really don't think NK will live to see 2009 - and I've never agreed with collapse talk in the past. My read on the nuke test and how it came about has been that the regime is panicing over something - and it would seem to me the only thing that would make them panic like this is if the regime saw the possibility of some forms of rebellion in the near future and they wanted to warn eveybody off - warn the US to stay out and not take advantage of the situation, warn China of the same and to warn China it had better making up in material aid what Pyongyang is losing due to the recent US moves on its illegal cash flows and warning the people inside NK the regime has ultimate power still.

I really don’t think NK will live to see 2009 - and I’ve never agreed with collapse talk in the past.

]]> By: sumo294 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52771 sumo294 Thu, 19 Oct 2006 13:40:36 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52771 I don't think China is eager to engage North Korea despite what many netizens believe. For one thing, resolving the Nork issue will definitely put the Taiwan issue on the backburner and a mishandling of the Norks will end their Taiwan dream forever . . . (Bear with me)one of the more interesting conversations in history was between Deng and the Iron Lady. Back in the day, Deng remarked that he could march into HK today if he wanted and no one could do a thing about it. "Yes" said Thatcher, "but the world would see you do it." Both persons fully understood that China's could not smoothly attain HK without UK's help and chaos would have scared the elites in Taiwan from ever advocating a pro-Mainland model of one China. What does hegemony in Norkland mean? Will it enhance China's enconomy? Absolutely not, the last thing China needs is a new labor pool of uneducated, non-Sino speaking and non-English speaking people (hence the fence). I think Jodi is being optimistic about even China level reforms for the Norks, my guess is that the productivity levels of the Norks will be on par with Sudan for many years. Will the Norks be grateful. No way and no how. The US treated the South way better than China will ever treat the Norks. Look how grateful the South is now. Plus you will have South Korean agents plus others everywhere in the North. Labor agents, the Korea Teacher's union, radical groups, Protestant missionaries, land speculators, nationalists, the KCIA, the CIA, industrialists, chaebols, whoremongers, CNN, and human slavers will be vying for a peice of that black hole of misery. No, I think China's interest is security. The Norks have a one million strong army and you have to deal with that. You have to seize control of the nuclear facilities and in the long run keep the Korean penn. neutral to your diplomatic interests. What an absolute headache. No one is looking forward to this mess will be my guess. I don’t think China is eager to engage North Korea despite what many netizens believe. For one thing, resolving the Nork issue will definitely put the Taiwan issue on the backburner and a mishandling of the Norks will end their Taiwan dream forever . . . (Bear with me)one of the more interesting conversations in history was between Deng and the Iron Lady. Back in the day, Deng remarked that he could march into HK today if he wanted and no one could do a thing about it. “Yes” said Thatcher, “but the world would see you do it.” Both persons fully understood that China’s could not smoothly attain HK without UK’s help and chaos would have scared the elites in Taiwan from ever advocating a pro-Mainland model of one China.
What does hegemony in Norkland mean? Will it enhance China’s enconomy? Absolutely not, the last thing China needs is a new labor pool of uneducated, non-Sino speaking and non-English speaking people (hence the fence). I think Jodi is being optimistic about even China level reforms for the Norks, my guess is that the productivity levels of the Norks will be on par with Sudan for many years.
Will the Norks be grateful. No way and no how. The US treated the South way better than China will ever treat the Norks. Look how grateful the South is now. Plus you will have South Korean agents plus others everywhere in the North. Labor agents, the Korea Teacher’s union, radical groups, Protestant missionaries, land speculators, nationalists, the KCIA, the CIA, industrialists, chaebols, whoremongers, CNN, and human slavers will be vying for a peice of that black hole of misery.
No, I think China’s interest is security. The Norks have a one million strong army and you have to deal with that. You have to seize control of the nuclear facilities and in the long run keep the Korean penn. neutral to your diplomatic interests. What an absolute headache. No one is looking forward to this mess will be my guess.

]]> By: mins0306 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52726 mins0306 Thu, 19 Oct 2006 04:07:21 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52726 Of course China wants to overthrow KJI. That way they can install a puppet government, lay claim to half of North Korea, and not worry about Japan using NK to make its own nukes. Of course China wants to overthrow KJI. That way they can install a puppet government, lay claim to half of North Korea, and not worry about Japan using NK to make its own nukes.

]]> By: SeoulLife.net » Blog Archive » High coup? http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52712 SeoulLife.net » Blog Archive » High coup? Thu, 19 Oct 2006 01:58:34 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52712 [...] Indications that Kim Jong Il’s reign is not the stranglehold it’s thought to be. [...] [...] Indications that Kim Jong Il’s reign is not the stranglehold it’s thought to be. [...]

]]> By: sewing http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52697 sewing Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:23:21 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52697 ...The close connections being the same reason we <i>didn't</i> hear about any of this until now.... …The close connections being the same reason we didn’t hear about any of this until now….

]]> By: sewing http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52696 sewing Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:22:18 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52696 Then again, if there are people in NK who want to get rid of Kim, China would be their most logical ally (for better or worse), since there are open communication channels between the two countries, and they have (I assume) mutual diplomatic presence in each others' capitals. Regarding the coup attempts, I would assume that we're hearing about this from China because the Chinese government would have been among the first to know of any disturbances in NK because of their close connections. Then again, if there are people in NK who want to get rid of Kim, China would be their most logical ally (for better or worse), since there are open communication channels between the two countries, and they have (I assume) mutual diplomatic presence in each others’ capitals. Regarding the coup attempts, I would assume that we’re hearing about this from China because the Chinese government would have been among the first to know of any disturbances in NK because of their close connections.

]]> By: sewing http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52695 sewing Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:18:48 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52695 Also, mention of a "sinophile" faction was used as an argument against tough sanctions, apparently. So I don't know how much credence to give to that part of it, either. Also, mention of a “sinophile” faction was used as an argument against tough sanctions, apparently. So I don’t know how much credence to give to that part of it, either.

]]> By: sewing http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52693 sewing Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:16:41 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52693 For me, the historical content in the article (in particular, the three coup attempts in 1990s) is just as interesting any speculation on what may or may not happen in the future... I also wonder...the article seems to imply that all these revelations have come out very recently; i.e., since the test, perhaps. Is this China's way of dropping hints or airing dirty laundry, by allowing/initiating an online discussion of this stuff? I don't recall ever reading of specific, concrete mention of coup attempts in the past (rather than speculation), nor do I recall seeing news before of this kind of stuff about the Norks coming out in the Chinese blogosphere. For me, the historical content in the article (in particular, the three coup attempts in 1990s) is just as interesting any speculation on what may or may not happen in the future…

I also wonder…the article seems to imply that all these revelations have come out very recently; i.e., since the test, perhaps. Is this China’s way of dropping hints or airing dirty laundry, by allowing/initiating an online discussion of this stuff? I don’t recall ever reading of specific, concrete mention of coup attempts in the past (rather than speculation), nor do I recall seeing news before of this kind of stuff about the Norks coming out in the Chinese blogosphere.

]]> By: SomeguyinKorea http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52694 SomeguyinKorea Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:16:41 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52694 I'm skeptical of the Chinese claims that there is a clear-cut 'sinophile' faction in North Korea. Kim Jong Il has made a reputation for himself for cleansing the North Korean government of any dissenting influence. It's likely that some North Korean government members may hold some favorable sentiments towards China, some may even be on the Chinese payroll. But, for now, I'm willing to bet that this is just another angle that China is trying to set up to legitimize its eventual annexion of North Korea. I’m skeptical of the Chinese claims that there is a clear-cut ’sinophile’ faction in North Korea. Kim Jong Il has made a reputation for himself for cleansing the North Korean government of any dissenting influence. It’s likely that some North Korean government members may hold some favorable sentiments towards China, some may even be on the Chinese payroll. But, for now, I’m willing to bet that this is just another angle that China is trying to set up to legitimize its eventual annexion of North Korea.

]]> By: jodi http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52691 jodi Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:12:18 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/10/19/hold-onto-your-hats-for-this-one/#comment-52691 proved=demonstrated (i think that's better). sorry... proved=demonstrated (i think that’s better). sorry…

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