Update: Joshua already posted on this on the 17th at One Free Korea. He takes a healthy attitude of skepticism regarding whether any of this news has any meaningful relevance to future developments. I’ve also minorly tweaked some sentences below.
In recent years, declassified Soviet and Eastern Bloc archives have greatly increased our knowledge of North Korea’s early history. Now, we may be beginning to learn more about the North’s more recent history, because it seems that China is talking.
Recent speculation that Kim Jŏng-il’s test may have been part of a strategy to quell dissent at home just might be right on the money. There are alleged to have been no fewer than three attempted coups d’état in North Korea in the 1990s, though there is apparently no report of such developments in this decade. Quoth the Sunday Times (via The Australian; hat tip to Michael):
Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il’s personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army’s political commissars.
On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law “exercise” in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.
In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation’s prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.
Not only that, but it seems that China may be as keen to see things change as anyone:
More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.
And the reason they can entertain such thoughts? Well, it seems that the idea that China may have an eye on shaping a post-Kim North Korea has some grounding in present circumstances:
Ahead of yesterday’s Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese “reformist” faction inside the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“In today’s DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist,” one Chinese analyst wrote online. “The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il’s royal family. That’s why Kim is against reform. He’s not stupid.”
The article is dated October 16th. Granted, this is just one article by one journalist, but at the very least, it would suggest that there is (as anyone would suspect) a lot more going on inside North Korea than we on the outside could ever hope to know….
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China likes to say “Let he who tied the knot, untie it.” Accordingly it would be great if the country most responsible for the continued existence of the DPRK be the one who finally gets rid of it.
sorry, “beCOMES be the one who finally gets rid of it”
What a wretched situation for people to the north, where the best they can hope for is Chinese-style (and China-oriented) reforms …
Interesting articles. Nice to know you’re working hard to dig these up.
Seems like the end is near for our “dear leader”. I knew those worthless Chicoms were up to no good. Still trying to hold onto the North for dear life. Pathetic.
I don’t know why these worthless Chinese don’t worry about starving children in their own Country, still trying desperately to propup a worthless regime. And for what?? So they can still feel like a worthless little dictator.
Better to rule in hell than serve in heaven, I guess. Pathetic…
Work schmork. Thanks, but I can’t really take any credit for it. Michael mentioned the article on another thread, and I just followed the link.
Seems like our dear leader is planning more tests up there:
http://today.reuters.com/news/.....-topNews-3
No doubt that the end is very near for KJI Kingdom.
Anti-KJI Elites in North also knows “Where there’s a will, there’s a way” and they are strongly backed by Chinese reformists. They may already have a plan to pull KJI out from his palace. The finalized D-Day, H-Hour might just post ponded due to Nuke.
Sewing, thanks for the HT but for full disclosure, I saw the link on Metafilter: http://www.metafilter.com/mefi/55604
There’s been a lot of talk of coups but this Australian article had the most details I’ve seen yet, for what that’s worth.
Despite the current horrendous gap between rich and poor in China, I actually think an economic reform Chinese style might be good for North Korea in the beginning stages at least.
The Chinese have successfully gone from a command to a market economy within a very short period of time and while there are issues such as floating populations, rural poverty, social security and human rights concerns to deal with, economically speaking the country has done what no other nation has been able to do in the time it has done it.
Considering the fact that North Koreans have been living in ultimate isolation for as long as they have, imagine the shock it would experience if it were to go to capitalism US-style (for example) without a gradual transition process. Can the country even manage such a thing on its own? How educated are North Korean political elite/leaders in such matters?
Economic reform Chinese style probably is a very good idea for North Korea post-Kim regime. Whether or not it should become a permanent model is something that can be addressed much later in the future. I think the main concern would be for the country to be able to decentralize itself gradually vs. all at once.
China has proved the success such an approach can result in.
proved=demonstrated (i think that’s better). sorry…
For me, the historical content in the article (in particular, the three coup attempts in 1990s) is just as interesting any speculation on what may or may not happen in the future…
I also wonder…the article seems to imply that all these revelations have come out very recently; i.e., since the test, perhaps. Is this China’s way of dropping hints or airing dirty laundry, by allowing/initiating an online discussion of this stuff? I don’t recall ever reading of specific, concrete mention of coup attempts in the past (rather than speculation), nor do I recall seeing news before of this kind of stuff about the Norks coming out in the Chinese blogosphere.
I’m skeptical of the Chinese claims that there is a clear-cut ’sinophile’ faction in North Korea. Kim Jong Il has made a reputation for himself for cleansing the North Korean government of any dissenting influence. It’s likely that some North Korean government members may hold some favorable sentiments towards China, some may even be on the Chinese payroll. But, for now, I’m willing to bet that this is just another angle that China is trying to set up to legitimize its eventual annexion of North Korea.
Also, mention of a “sinophile” faction was used as an argument against tough sanctions, apparently. So I don’t know how much credence to give to that part of it, either.
Then again, if there are people in NK who want to get rid of Kim, China would be their most logical ally (for better or worse), since there are open communication channels between the two countries, and they have (I assume) mutual diplomatic presence in each others’ capitals. Regarding the coup attempts, I would assume that we’re hearing about this from China because the Chinese government would have been among the first to know of any disturbances in NK because of their close connections.
…The close connections being the same reason we didn’t hear about any of this until now….
Of course China wants to overthrow KJI. That way they can install a puppet government, lay claim to half of North Korea, and not worry about Japan using NK to make its own nukes.
I don’t think China is eager to engage North Korea despite what many netizens believe. For one thing, resolving the Nork issue will definitely put the Taiwan issue on the backburner and a mishandling of the Norks will end their Taiwan dream forever . . . (Bear with me)one of the more interesting conversations in history was between Deng and the Iron Lady. Back in the day, Deng remarked that he could march into HK today if he wanted and no one could do a thing about it. “Yes” said Thatcher, “but the world would see you do it.” Both persons fully understood that China’s could not smoothly attain HK without UK’s help and chaos would have scared the elites in Taiwan from ever advocating a pro-Mainland model of one China.
What does hegemony in Norkland mean? Will it enhance China’s enconomy? Absolutely not, the last thing China needs is a new labor pool of uneducated, non-Sino speaking and non-English speaking people (hence the fence). I think Jodi is being optimistic about even China level reforms for the Norks, my guess is that the productivity levels of the Norks will be on par with Sudan for many years.
Will the Norks be grateful. No way and no how. The US treated the South way better than China will ever treat the Norks. Look how grateful the South is now. Plus you will have South Korean agents plus others everywhere in the North. Labor agents, the Korea Teacher’s union, radical groups, Protestant missionaries, land speculators, nationalists, the KCIA, the CIA, industrialists, chaebols, whoremongers, CNN, and human slavers will be vying for a peice of that black hole of misery.
No, I think China’s interest is security. The Norks have a one million strong army and you have to deal with that. You have to seize control of the nuclear facilities and in the long run keep the Korean penn. neutral to your diplomatic interests. What an absolute headache. No one is looking forward to this mess will be my guess.
My read on the nuke test and how it came about has been that the regime is panicing over something – and it would seem to me the only thing that would make them panic like this is if the regime saw the possibility of some forms of rebellion in the near future and they wanted to warn eveybody off – warn the US to stay out and not take advantage of the situation, warn China of the same and to warn China it had better making up in material aid what Pyongyang is losing due to the recent US moves on its illegal cash flows and warning the people inside NK the regime has ultimate power still.
I really don’t think NK will live to see 2009 – and I’ve never agreed with collapse talk in the past.
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