As all of you readers in Korea are fast asleep with hopefully happy dreams—some of you recovering from the shock of air raid drills which the Old Hands (TM) among us are serenely complacent about—here are some overnight developments to get you up to speed:
- The US is confirming that radiation indicates that it was, in fact, a nuke that was tested on October 9th. The yield is estimated to have been less than 1 kiloton.
- China is inspecting trucks crossing the border from Dandong to Sinŭiju. Inspectors are looking inside trucks, but apparently not actually opening boxes. The country intends to carry out land-based border inspections, but not boardings at sea.
- As the Flying Yangban mentioned previously on this blog, China is also busy erecting a fence along its border with NK and stopping cash remittances to NK (at least in Dandong). There are more details in this Associated Press (AP) article. This fence may do more harm than good, if it keeps refugees out of China and stems the flow of outside-world information into NK.
- Australia will ban NK ships from entering Australian ports, “except in dire emergencies.” (Yes, it’s the same link as the previous AP article…scroll down near the bottom.)
- South Korea’s $279 million (US) Arirang-2 satellite—launched for defense purposes—did not take any photos of NK between October 3rd and 9th; i.e., during the entire lead-up to the test. The Korean Aerospace Research Institute says they were not asked to turn the cameras on the North. For the record, the whistleblower on this was an Uri Party lawmaker.
- Burt Herman, the AP bureau chief in Seoul, wonders if KJI has played his last card, and has been upping the ante—without going too far—in a ploy to get more concessions from the rest of the world (well, of course) and stave off discontent at home (ah, that’s interesting).
Enjoy!
32 Comments
South Korea’s $279 billion (US) Arirang-2 satellite…
What happen? The price of satellites sky-rocketed (no pun intended) these days?
Shit, with that money the US could start another war half the size of the one in Iraq.
My mistake. I was off by a factor of a thousand. It was approximately $279 million US. (266.3 billion Won / 955W per $1 US, using the exchange rate given in the Chosun article.) Error fixed.
There’s a nice opinion piece by Ross Terrill in The Australian:
http://tinyurl.com/tfzq8
I’m not sure if anyone else has suggested this approach; it seems like creative thinking.
South Korea’s $279 million (US) Arirang-2 satellite—launched for defense purposes—did not take any photos of NK between October 3rd and 9th; i.e., during the entire lead-up to the test. The Korean Aerospace Research Institute says they were not asked to turn the cameras on the North. For the record, the whistleblower on this was an Uri Party lawmaker.
The fact that the ROK now possesses the ARIRANG-2 satellite is to tell the North that the ROK has the capability to keep the North honest. The fact that the ROKGOV deliberately chose not to switch it on their Northern compatriots is a reminder signal to Pyongyang that the South is fundamentally not hostile towards the North.
I believe we are witnessing what could turn out to be the beginning stages of a major shift in the geopolitical fault lines of NE Asia. In the past, this corner of the world was divided along the lines of the old Cold War dichotomy: SK, Japan, Taiwan orbiting around the US in one camp and NK, China, USSR in the other. Yet the world is a very different place than it was 20 years ago. The former superpower USSR has disintegrated, China has risen tremendously to an economic force bound to evolve into the next superpower, and the moral high ground of American foreign policy is in doubt. Yet the hard political boundaries of the old Cold War persists to this day, despite the drastically new environment, and that discrepancy alone is a major source of tension and instability.
SK has two choices:
A. she can either hold her ground and continue extending the olive branch of reconciliation to NK
or
B. she can return to her old role as America’s proxy-bitch and enact a Japanese-style firewalling of NK.
China has two choices:
A. she can continue propping up NK as per status quo
or
B. commense taking genuine harsh measures against NK
Japan and America’s position and course of action are pretty much determined and obvious so I wont discuss them here.
I think China is likely to go route A rather than B. NK’s unpredecented nuke test is pretty damn compelling. Given China’s overall world power ambitions, its new found status as a highly influential regional power, and her seat in the UN Security Council, the PRC knows that it’ll have to start visibly arm-twisting NK in order to maintain respectibility and avoid criticism in the world stage. However, total sanction of NK runs counter to China’s fears of NK collapse, outbreak of refugees, and the potential loss of a friendly buffer state.
That’s where SK comes in. In accordance with the inherent logic of the current situation, SK must continue to keep the US at arm’s length. Plans for the eventual take-over of wartime military command by the ROK and the gradual, phase-out of USFK in the peninsula must continue. SK must stop straddling the fence on reunification and start taking the issue a lot more seriously. SK must persuade NK that the hand-writing is on the wall, the world is losing their patience and becoming genuinely afraid, that China is changing, has ulterior designs in the Yalu region as evidenced by the Koguryo reinterpretation initiative, that Japan is re-militarizing and re-emerging under the new leadership of Shinzo Abe, that a regional contest between an emerging China and a re-emerging Japan backed by America is inevitable, and that the only way for NK/SK to avoid being trampled on by bigger dogs and effectively confront a hostile, new world order is for both Koreas to stop being a divided house, combine their complementary strengths (NK’s military strength with SK’s economic and industrial prowess) and emerge as a Korean confederation destined to become a true unified Korea. NK aligning herself to SK’s corner would help damp China’s fears of NK collapse. But in order to allay China’s concern about losing a buffer state, SK must continue to do its part in distancing herself from the US, cut loose the USFK while simultaneously cultivating increased friendly relations with the PRC and continued growth in trade with the PRC.
erratum:
I think China is likely to go route A rather than B.
should be: I think China is likely to go route B rather than A.
Finally, maybe a dialogue will start. Maybe even the true picture of North Korea will start to come out, and the perverted image of North Korea created by the bush controlled press will be dashed. While working on my PHD at Baylor, I visited North Korea and met Kim Jong Il. He truly cares for everyone of his people and is a true great leader. In time, the world will come to see he is a leader on the level of a mohammed or jesus. It took nukes, but now maybe the world will see.
Nancy Hutto
Top 5 Producer - Kelly Realtors
nhutto@kellyrealtors.com
bluejives, there’s one slight problem with your theory that blows everything out of the water. And it’s this
“SK must persuade NK”
umm.. you really think God himself can ‘persuade’ Kim Jong Il from being a bad man?
Right.
Nancy Hutto,
While I agree with your sentiment about the Republican/Conservative media mind-control this statement:
While working on my PHD at Baylor, I visited North Korea and met Kim Jong Il. He truly cares for everyone of his people and is a true great leader. In time, the world will come to see he is a leader on the level of a mohammed or jesus. It took nukes, but now maybe the world will see.
does tend to make you seem like a Madeline Albright, who is considered a pariah of sorts on this blog. You may find yourself an object of much scorn by the regulars of this blog (been there myself plenty of times but I have a thick skin). Just a friendly warning.
^ response to CM
Well, I should have also mentioned (but neglected to do so) in my mini-analysis that NK has and will continue to be a wildcard variable. But the governing dynamics logic of the overall situation is pretty clear and if NK proves itself to be a rational player (of course, the usual suspects will predictably scoff at my use of the word ‘rational’ and ‘NK’ in the same breath but my definition of ‘rational’ happens to be: behaving in accordance to self-evident rules that will maximize self-interest/preservation and NOT: necessarily giving two shits about “good versus evil” and contrived, irrelevant “moral high ground” justification/rationalization spinning media devices that the Neocons conflate with much of America’s disastrous foreign policy experiments today), then the decision matrix is universally clear to all sides and if all sides behave “rationally” and in concert with one another, I fail to see how my analysis wouldnt at least hold an ounce or three of water.
Kim Jong Il on the same level as Jesus. That’s funny.
Remember, after the bit with the loaves and the fishes, Jesus then proceeded to set off a nuclear weapon, had generations of families put into prison camps, and had the disciples engage in infanticde of mixed-race babies? Me neither.
Nancy, I don’t really know how to respond to your comment. You went to Baylor…that’s a Southern Baptist university, isn’t it? Let me put my response in Christian terms.
Christianity has long been a suppressed religion in North Korea. Since Kim Il-sung and now his son are portrayed as gods in North Korean propaganda, a religion that worships God is unacceptable. Although there are a handful of offically sanctioned churches in North Korea now, these are at odds with a growing underground Christian movement. North Koreans who return (or are forcibly returned) to their country from China are persecuted if they came in contact with Christians in China. Additionally, South Korean Christians are at the forefront of efforts to aid North Korean refugees. Although in the past, some South Korean Christian organizations may have been put to political use by South Korea, the same cannot be said today, when the South Korean government bends over backwards to accomodate the North.
Before the Communists took over, P’yŏngyang was known as the “Jerusalem of the East” because of its large Protestant Christian movement. After decades of suppression and persecution, today, the Word of God is one of the few effective ways of reaching and holding out hope for suffering North Koreans.
You may wish to read these articles. (I especially recommend the first one. Andrei Lankov is an impartial scholar, grew up in the Soviet Union, and is one of the world’s foremost authorities on North Korea):
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GC16Dg03.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asi.....744847.stm
http://www.religioustolerance.org/rt_nkor.htm
For a firsthand account of a North Korean Christian’s experiences, please see these two articles:
http://www.backtopyongyang.org.....th_me.html
http://www.backtopyongyang.org....._rule.html
OK, as much as we like to rag on Madeline Albright around here, let us not confuse a proponent of a a bad policy with someone (am I right to suspect identity “theft” here?) who just compared Kim Jong-il to Jesus.
That’s because the satelite was urgently needed to monitor Japanese naval activity near Dokdo!
On DPKK propaganda;
http://www.dprkstudies.org/documents/dprk003.html
Gray Hat,
You mean something like this?
Helping China Decide to Kill the Kim Regime
I do have to disagree with Ross Terrill that NK wants to take over SK - I don’t think they actually want to anymore, b/c if they did (assuming they could), the KPA and many other North Koreans would discover the truth about their ‘workers paradise.’ That would be another route to the end of the Kim regime.
Uh, Nancy, I thought that it was Ph.D. Good luck in the real estate market. Your success is obviously costing you a lot of long hours. You might try Cambodia for your next vacation. They have great food and temples, and once had a really cool guy there named Pol Pot. Reagan and the western controlled press told really brutal lies about him, but a few prescient travellers were able to get in and witness for themselves the good he was doing for humanity.
Timeless classic, one of my all time favourites that describes Kim Jong Il’s regime.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMLXA8nvlMQ
I believe Bluejives is very optimistic when he speaks of a unified Korea that benefits from complementary strengths. I think it far more likely that the great and fundamental weaknesses a suddenly open North Korea will bring to a confederation or unified state will overwhelm any such imagined strengths. It is quite difficult to imagine a unified Korea that will, at least in the short term, not be weaker than today’s South Korea.
I think that for this reason, the U.S. should do its best to promote Korean re-unification, as the financial and social costs to both Koreas of dealing with the reality of such a union will keep Koreans occupied for quite some time, and thus less prone to causing problems for the rest of the world.
Suggesting why the Korean Aerospace Research Institute did not have its Arirang 2 satellite cameras turned on North Korea during the period leading up to the nuclear explosion, Robert Koehler wrote:
As silly as that sounds, I would not be at all surprised.
Based on the following cartoon, Koreans seem to know what is going on.
In between Bush and the Japanese prime minister, who are holding a barbell that says “Economic Sanctions” on one end and “Maritime Inspections” on the other, Roh is saying, “Come on, boys, all together now.”
Link to the cartoon
By the way, it looks as if North Korea is preparing for a second nuclear test.
I think it should be noted that in theory, Lil Kim could have faked the radioactive trace as well — by contaminating the area with minor traces of nuclear waste from the power plant/lab — if the blast was faked by a chemical bomb. Therefore, unless the US data shows certain distinctive spectrum of different radioactive elements (to distinguish it from fuel rod natural decay and that of controlled fission — which is hard to do). This is still inconclusive.
However, personally I believe a fake blast is quite unlikely. Mainly because to blow up 500 tons of chemicals at the same split second requires very sophisticated engineering capability as well.
btw, armscontrolwonk said that they are seen (by satellite) playing volleyball at the site.
sunbin, faking a nuclear test is not impossible. It’s essentially what they do when they calibrate the devices used to detect them.
Sunbin,
Are the benefits of faking a nuclear test really worth it? I think it would be much more likely that North Korea was proving to a potential buyer that their bombs really work.
Or is it: KAERI were asked not to turn the cameras on the North. ?!?
Richardson:
I had read your “Helping China decide . . .” piece earlier. Terrill’s suggestion seems different to me. The essence of your plan you summed up as
“to convince China to use the leverage is has – oil, energy, etc. – to either a) force North Korea back to the Six-Party Talks and to the completion of a genuine agreement, or b) to isolate North Korea into collapse should Pyongyang not capitulate.”
Terrill also notes that Chinese action is indispensable, but I think he wants to see that leverage used for a different end: to force KJI to accept a creatively ambiguous “Federation” which he might hope to dominate, but which would evolve — swiftly or slowly — toward his eclipse.
I think Dogbertt is right to emphasize the radical differences between the two Koreas as an impediment (if anything, he understates his case). And your belief that KJI needs and clings to isolation also militates against Terrill’s plan. But I suggest (without irony) that Terrill deserves credit for ingenuity.
Kim Jong-il has already “rationally” decided that isolation from what he would consider corrupting influences, especially those of culturally similar South Korea, is the only way he can stay safely in power. Bluejives’ vision sounds a lot like Roh Moo-hyun’s balancer role notion — nice in theory, but not workable with a “negotiating partner” who chose the starvation of 2 million people over a modest opening of his country and economy. That move was “rational” for Kim, and evil.
Modern North Korean history, has taught to North Koreans, is a fabrication. Think of it as the allegory of the cave. In the North Korean version, the freed slave returns to the cave and lies to the prisoners about the outside world. The con man tells them stories of beasts awaiting outside the cave, ready to attack at any times. Since he won’t break their chains, the prisoners make him their leader because he’s the only one capable of protecting them from the imaginary beasts.
Sewing -
Did you mean:
“The Korean Aerospace Research Institute says they were not asked to turn the cameras on the North. For the record, the whistleblower on this was an Uri Party lawmaker” as you wrote it, or:
“The Korean Aerospace Research Institute says they were ASKED TO NOT turn the cameras on the North. For the record, the whistleblower on this was an Uri Party lawmaker” as I read it in context?
dda, kuraeji:
It’s amazing the details one can miss! On closer rereading, I see now that the KARI official contacted for the story actually used a double negative, to explain that they were not explicitly asked to not watch the North.
(Or rather, whatever he said was translated into English as a double negative.)
Here’s the same quote as above, from the original Korean-language story:
So in more literal translation:
“just” is probably a fairer translation of -ㄹ 뿐 than “merely” for this article….
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