As one might expect from a ‘citizen journalism’ site, OhmyNews can be pretty uneven in what it serves up.
But this is one of the better pieces I have seen on the current mess that North Korea finds itself in.
After spending most of the piece talking about who is to blame for the current situation (short answer: everyone, but especially the North Koreans), it gives some sage advice on what to do from here:
Now that North Korea is a nuclear power (albeit a technologically crude one) what can it do? Pyongyang is running out of cards. It knows if it tries to export nuclear technology or material, or use nuclear weapons against anyone, it will seal its own end. It can try to blackmail the world, but the international community should not allow this. The United Nations Security Council should impose strict sanctions against North Korea, short of causing rapid regime collapse. North Korea needs to be gradually squeezed until a creative package is possible which allows Pyongyang to surrender with some sense of honor. This probably will not happen until there are new faces in all our capitals. Until then, North Korea can be deterred, and while increasing pressure on the regime, the international community can drop hints of security reassurances and economic opportunities.
The North Korean regime has already lost, but the situation is still dangerous. Now is not the time to point fingers or practice pessimism. What is necessary is that the UN Security Council provide a clear mandate for greater pressure on North Korea, and that the five parties - South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the United States - get onto the same page and stay there. This is possible if Beijing proves responsible, Seoul committed, and the U.S. and Japan relatively restrained.
As the North Korean regime faces a world united against it, Pyongyang will find ways to change. After making it clear to North Korea that it can no longer divide and exploit its neighbors, the five parties can reintroduce incentives “commitment for commitment, action for action.” This phased re-engagement will be essential because regardless of shares of blame, or differences in national interests and strategy, no one wants to pay for a loose nukes failed state.
To this I would add the ‘Three Island’ policy:
- If North Korea attacks the US, including US ships; South Korea becomes an island.*
- If North Korea attacks any of America’s allies; South Korea becomes an island.
- If North Korea tries to export nuclear material or technology, South Korea becomes an island.
The minimum that the UNSC must due to prove that it is relevant on North Korea is approve sanctions and cargo inspections.
In other news, Canada wants someone to listen to their opinion about North Korea’s nukes.
*I stole the ‘South Korea becomes an island’ phrase from the Marmot, who may or may not have stolen it from someone else.
9 Comments
Canada has a foreign policy weekly? I didn’t even know they had a foreign policy
On a more serious note, let me second Andy and say Leif-Eric Easley’s piece in OhMyNews is excellent.
Awww…c’mon be fair. Canada has not had a foreign policy for about 13 years (Nov. 4th 1993). It has only recently surfaced again (Feb. 6th, 2006). By foreign I mean any policy not centered on Ontario and/or Quebec…but that is another story!
By the way, thanks for that link. I did not know that existed either.
Hard as it may be to believe, Canadian documentarians and pundits still look back fondly to the 1950s, when future Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson helped to mediate the Suez Crisis. That event—half a century ago now—is still today hearkened back to as the high point in Canadian diplomacy, and still seems to be considered by many with fondness as the time when we heard a voice in the world. That in Canada hasn’t managed to play a significant role in any other high-profile international event in the past fifty years—and moreso, that the intelligentsia here feels that it’s incumbent on us to play such a role (that the world somehow expects it from us)—is pretty pathetic (speaking as a Canadian)….
“That in Canada hasn’t managed to play a significant role in any other high-profile international event in the past fifty years—and moreso, that the intelligentsia here feels that it’s incumbent on us to play such a role (that the world somehow expects it from us)—is pretty pathetic (speaking as a Canadian)….”
Oh, be fair. You purposely forget to mention the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, Somalia, Rwanda, and the Yugoslav War, among other high-profile events.
Okay, I should have qualified…I meant a diplomatic role such as it played during the Suez Crisis. You’re quite right. I’d just woken up and hadn’t had my coffee yet.
SK winning the Cold War isn’t making me feel better. Depending China’s reaction by the end of this week, we will really see if DPRK really used it’s “last card.” Because right now, the news is that the Chinese are trying to neuter Chapter 7 as much as she can. They are even saying that we shouldn’t “punish” rather try to assuage them to come to the table. If South Korea joins PSI, it’s probably limited only to mid-eastern terrorist issues–which is to say, SK is not joining the PSI. I just cannot see ROK navy boarding DPRK ships. I think China & SK still hold the delusion that Bush will go bilateral, which is as unlikely as DPRK going 6-party. I foresee 5 parties coming together to slap DPRK’s wrist. US & Japan will still tighten what they can, and we might see that 2nd test in the near future. I wonder if anything will change then. The big question is, will Uri let go of their pet projects? Will China reduce oil delivery? I have lost all hope in Chapter 7. It just feels like they are just waiting for the news that the explosion was a fake, so it’s easier to keep the status quo.
I also have a feeling that we won’t stop DPRK from selling nuke/missiles abroad. How are we going to stop them from selling research papers? What proof will we ever have? The chances of going into an Iraqesque country with “proof” of WMD right now is really really bad.
What worries me the most:
1: DPRK really doing “It.”
2: Coming death of US-ROK alliance.
3: Trade war with China.
4: nuclearization of the far east.
At first, I was hopeful because of Roh’s strong words. But I forget… He is still Roh. And China’s still China, Bush is still Bush, and Kim Jong Il is still Kim Jong Il.
in addendum, Dr. Lankov wrote another piece for the WSJ, available on nkzone.
sewing, you’d still be wrong. For example, many people believe that Loyd Axworthy should have been the one to receive the Nobel Peace Prize for demining. A Canadian was also behind one of the many ceasefires that were negotiated between Israel and Palestine while Arrafat was still alive (then again, that one doesn’t count. We supplied plane, arms and capital to Israel during the 1948 war).
Okay, okay.
And many of our soldiers did die for the UN forces in the Korean War, so I will concede that Canada does arguably have some historical justification for claiming a stake in this matter.