The number one question right now on the Korea political front is how the North Korean nuclear test will effect President Roh’s ‘Peace and Prosperity’ (AKA: Son of Sunshine) policy of engagement with the Kim Jong-il regime.
Right now, what Roh will do is anybody’s guess. The guy can be mercurial but he has been remarkably consistent (one might say Ahab consistent) about his North Korea policy. If the Norks do something Seoul likes; engage. If the Norks do something provocative; engage. Even last summer’s missile tests brought only a two-week suspension of aid.
But the latest funny business from Pyongyang has even given Roh pause:
“It’s true that with the situation now, a reconsideration of our engagement policy is needed,” a presidential spokesperson quoted Roh as saying.
So what would the Grand National Party do differently? According to Norimitsu Onishi, not much (NYT, subscription)*:
Analysts said that North Korea’s action would weaken Mr. Roh and the governing Uri Party, but that the damage would not decisively help the opposition Grand National Party.
“When you look at the opposition’s policies toward North Korea, you see that they are 95 percent in agreement with the ruling party’s,” said Choi Kang, a security expert at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. “Both emphasize the need to push the North to democratize, to reform internally, by engaging it. What differs is the means. The opposition emphasizes the need for reciprocity — it shouldn’t be unconditional.”
I beg to differ. I see the GNP demand for reciprocity as a huge difference (I have gone a few rounds with Orankay and Kushibo on this very issue but don’t remember which posts.). A policy of reciprocity would mean that the DPRK would likely have to commit to some kind of Helsinki process in or at least give up more in return for economic aid.
If you really think that there is not a significant difference between the Uri and GNP on North Korean policy, check out this from former Gyeonggi-do governor and presidential candidate Sohn Hak-kyu (considered a GNP moderate):
“The government needs to withdraw all forms of economic aid unless Pyongyang renounces its nuclear test and nuclear development. Given the gravity of the national emergency on Korean peninsula, we need to depart from vacillating responses and become more resolute to handle this affliction.”
That is a real difference.
I will be checking the tracking polls over at Realmeter from time to time to see if there are any major changes in party support in the wake of the Nork nuke test.
*Dr Lankov is also quoted in the NYT piece:
Sphere: Related ContentSouth Korea’s priorities remain peace and stability on the peninsula, so few South Koreans favor confronting North Korea and possibly causing a military conflict or its collapse. The United States, in contrast, is concerned about nuclear proliferation.
“Does South Korea share these concerns?” said Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul. “No. If some crazy regime in Central America goes nuclear, or if terrorist groups or rogue states obtain nuclear arms, South Korea will never become a target.
“In the short term, South Korea will have to show solidarity with the international community and freeze exchanges with the North,” he added. “But then they will start looking for a pretext to resume exchanges.”
17 Comments
“I see the GNP demand for reciprocity as a huge difference (I have gone a few rounds with Orankay and Kushibo on this very issue but don’t remember which posts.).”
Hm. I don’t remember which posts either.
I do think the GNP merely talks about reciprocity and wouldn’t get very far with it, and so there’s little difference when all said and done.
The GNP wouldn’t do _as much as Roh_ without reciprocity, but it would still do _a lot_ without reciprocity because politicially it cannot afford to do nothing at all with North Korea. As a party it doesn’t really have a policy on NK. It just says “ditto that” and adds a few footnotes and qualifiers.
Mostly, and especially in the English blogging world, the point is to blame Roh for policies that are for the most part supported (despite what they say from time to time) by most South Koreans and politicians, including those in the GNP.
One thing for certain is that the GNP would be less amateurish about handling NK and when there were disagreements with the U.S. it wouldn’t talk about them out loud. There’s certainly a lot to be said for that.
Well, I doubt anyone in the GNP would say it’s “understandable” for Pyongyang to develop nuclear weapons (as Roh has), so there’s one big difference. There is little any S.K. leader can expect to get out of N.K. anyway except symbolic, piecemeal agreements. The main event is how another S.K. president would have used the U.S. alliance to S.K.’s advantage in gaining some tanglible concessions from N.K.–Roh has bungled that mightily, maybe even purposely, so he certainly is blameworthy for rendering his country nearly impotent in that regard.
hmm…what happened to hamburger reviews?
Interestingly, local and provincial governments in Korea, including especially those currently controlled by the GNP in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Busan, have terminated their own inter-Korean cooperation projects.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/S.....100074.asp.
Of course the amounts involved are a drop in the bucket, but it’s pretty indicative of what to expect from the GNP. A GNP Administration doesn’t have to be aggressively provocative to dramatically change the tenor and impact of inter-Korean politics; given the very significant effect that the withdrawal of ROK aid would have, insisting on reciprocity with the NORKS as a principle of exchange itself thus would be a very big deal.
The rub would come when the NORKS lash out in response to the failure of their attempts at extortion. It’s here that in the end there wouldn’t be much difference whoever is in power (assuming, unlike some of the Roh-Nothings, they are not already on a “flight-deck” os some sort). But the GNP likely would respond more resolutely, and honor the sacrifices made by the ROK military in doing so, but in a measured way, instead of just lathering up their own backside with KY and bending over for the NORKS like the Great Pretender and the other birds of the same feather.
No doubt one repercussion of the nuclear test will be a reduction in anti-foreigner crap on the internet. It’s kind of hard to be upset about a few controversial calls in the World Cup when your Brothers Up North finally have the means to turn downtown Seoul into a Sea of Flames…
Well, they’ve had the means to do that for a long time, and even if what went off was nuclear it doesn’t add a bit to that capacity since they can’t mount it on a delivery system. The real distraction from giving foreigners the Bronx Cheer is that the NORKS latest fart has shaken the sleepers out of their complacency.
Burger’s let us get back to burgers.
OK, let me play devil’s advocate for a minute. I’ll admit that Sunshine Policy, Sunshine Lite, Son of Sunshine, or whatver you want to call it nowadays, did seem mostly like SK playing NK’s bitch.
Let’s say that hypothetically, SK had never conceived of Sunshine anything and had remained, all along, being America’s bitch instead. Let’s say, Roh Moo Hyun and SK got Real Tough with North Korea, Texas-style.
Would North Korea have then said “oh no!”, pee’ed in their pants, and said “OK! OK! we give up” and not proceeded with their nuclear program, missile program, etc? I dont think so.
You see, it really doesnt matter what SK does or does not do. NK does not need nukes to destroy SK. Their conventional weapons are already well capable of doing that many times over WITHOUT the risk of radioactive fallout floating Pyongyang-wise. The Taepodong-2 missile does not have a operational radius of 10000 km because that’s what NK military needs to hit Seoul.
So the entire responsibility for the fact that North Korea is hell bent on converting matter into energy rests on the shoulders of the US and the Bush Team. This know-how will undoubtedly be shared with other disenfranchised and super-angry groups around the world. Contrary to the static, Cold War relic mindset of most expats here, NK’s comrades in the New World Order arent really the Chinese anymore. It’s now Al Qaeda. North Korean missiles aren’t necessary going to be what will be delivering Nork-made nukes to their targets. It will be suicide terrorists. North nukes dont have to have a yield comparable to that of Fat Man or Little Boy. They just have to be able to fit inside a suitcase or a non-descript van.
The North figures that with this preliminary nuke test whatever outcome there would be, they’d be prepared. In the worst case scenario, if the US decides to harden some more, impose more sanctions, etc, KJI figures, well he’ll just keep perfecting his new toys and eventually sell to other guys around the world who happen to share a similar enemy as he does. NK’s got contingency plans up the wazoo, a Plan B to the Plan B plus a Plan C just in case and the world knows that the US would jeopardize the safety of not just SK, NE Asia, but that of the entire world just because Bush cannot afford to lose face to a short, fat guy sporting a funky K-fro.
North Korea has been “hell bent on converting matter into energy” since at least the Eisenhower era and including right after Kim made the tactical decision to sign the 1994 Agreed Framework to buy the program more time and harvest some aid.
The Sunshine Policy, if executed as originally conceived, MIGHT have lead to absorption of the North by stealth. But DJ Kim seemed content to use it for short-term gain, personal and political, and a wary Pyongyang easily coopted it and turned Seoul into an enabler of the Kim Family Regime. With some luck and much vision in Seoul, that chapter is over.
The North Korean “nuclear problem”, “counterfeiting problem”, “kidnapping problem”, “human rights problem” etc etc all flow from the fact that it is North Korea that is the problem. Normalcy is a threat to the Kim dynasty, and there is simply no reason for the DPRK to exist in the 21st century. Kim Jong-il and his diplomats know that and behave accordingly.
In order to truly play the devil’s advocate of “what would have happened without the Shoeshine Policy” you have to go back to 1998 at least. Now from that point on erase the dollars that KJI had at his disposal in order to research and develop his toys, not to mention drink his wine, watch (and direct) his movies, and carouse with women. All of that has been funded through the Shoeshine policy. Further, that fiscal deficiency would have place KJI at a crossroads much earlier bringing the issues of counterfeiting and drug proliferation to a peak earlier as well. All of this could have developed prior to the Bush Administration’s tenure had KDJ not betrayed the North Korean people with his Shoeshine Policy. Instead, he has paid the salaries of their jailers and provided bonuses to KJI to continue the people’s maltreatment. The US policy of not agreeing to Nork blackmail shouldn’t even be an issue here as it has nothing to do with the problem.
Bumbling Toward Disaster, Bush and North Korea
COUNTERPUNCH
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney10102006.html
By MIKE WHITNEY
“We have reaffirmed our commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. The actions taken by North Korea are unacceptable and deserve an immediate response by the UN Security Council.” President George Bush; following the detonation of North Korea’s first nuclear weapon
It took 6 years of relentless threats, sanctions and belligerence, but Bush finally succeeded in pushing Kim Jong-Il to build North Korea’s first nuclear bomb. Now, Kim can just add a few finishing touches to his ballistic-missile delivery system, the Taepo-dong ICBM, and he’ll be able to wipe out the 9 western states with a flip of the switch.
In a matter of hours, the world has become a much more dangerous place, a fact that will have no effect of the blinkered ideologues at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. They’ve probably already moved on to the next phase of their plan to expand the Middle East catastrophe; Armageddon in Iran.
The crisis with North Korea was entirely avoidable for anyone with even minimal diplomatic skills and an elementary understanding of human psychology. Instead, the Bush troupe persisted for 6 years with the same inflexible policy nudging Kim ever-closer to producing his first nuclear weapon.Now, half the population of the United States is in the gun-sights of a madcap tyrant whose basic grasp of reality has always been seriously in doubt.
At the same time, the White House has resumed issuing statements via its sardonic press secretary, Tony Snow, that Bush “is closely monitoring the situation and reaffirms his commitment to defend our allies in the region.”
“Monitoring the situation”? Bush has done everything in his power to facilitate the North Korean despot’s quest for WMD except hand-deliver atom-bombs to the front porch of his imperial palace!
Bush has put everyone in the region at greater risk and, without a doubt, triggered a nuclear-arms race in Japan, China and South Korea. It is the death-knell for non-proliferation and the threadbare NPT.
The Bush administration has known what Kim wants for 6 years and has had ample opportunity to find a peaceful resolution to the standoff. North Korea’s demands go back to the original 1994 “Framework Agreement” in which Bill Clinton promised to provide food, fuel and 2 light-water reactors in exchange for North Korea’s abandoning its nuclear weapons programs. The North agreed to these terms, but the United States has never honored its obligations.
When Bush took office, the agreement was jettisoned altogether and Bush pushed for sanctions. He placed North Korea on the “Axis of Evil” list, threatened regime change, and publicly announced that he “loathed” Kim Jung Il. All of this fueled the confrontation and thrust the wary Kim towards developing a viable nuclear deterrent to US aggression. Kim had no intention of being the next victim of Bush’s preemptive policy.
Bush’s dim-witted bravado and saber-rattling has only made negotiations more difficult and aggravated an already tense situation. Even when it was announced that Kim would be testing a nuclear device sometime during this past weekend, the headstrong Bush still refused to enter “11th hour” negotiations. Instead, his Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill issued yet another ominous-sounding threat that “North Korea can either have a future or they can have those weapons. They can’t have both.”
Kim, of course, brushed off the warning and detonated the bomb
American Intelligence agencies now believe that North Korea has enough fissile material for between 2 to 8 nuclear warheads and they are speeding ahead with the development of the requisite delivery systems.
What will Bush do now?
Will he bomb the North and potentially open another front on the Korean Peninsula for our already over-extended military? Or will he simply continue with the fiery rhetoric and the chest-thumping bluster?
His track-record is far from reassuring.
The Bush team will probably follow their familiar pattern of ignoring the dilemma while creating a public relations smokescreen to conceal their incompetence.
Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice will undoubtedly make their appearances on the morning talk shows claiming that “we are all much safer” under the enlightened leadership of George Bush. Perhaps, they could synchronize their silly assertions to coincide with the explosion of Korea’s next nuclear weapon.
How could Bush let the situation get so out-of-hand? After all, the central tenet of the war on terror is: “We will not let the world’s most dangerous weapons fall into the hands of the world’s worst dictators”? Instead, they have elevated an unstable megalomaniac into a nuclear-armed menace. It could turn out to be the greatest foreign policy meltdown in American history.
Bush needs to forgo the Texas bravado and make substantive changes to the present policy before North Korea becomes the world’s largest WMD-production factory.
First, he should agree to two-party talks with representatives from the North, which is what North Korea has demanded from the very beginning.
Second, he should review all sanctions directed against North Korea and publicly state that he will reassess whether they are truly justified.
Third, (and most important) Bush should offer firm assurances in the form of a treaty that North Korea WILL NOT BE ATTACKED BY THE UNITED STATES IF IT ABANDONS ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS. This has been the North’s primary demand from the very onset of the crisis. (although it has been omitted from newspaper coverage to conceal the fact that the rest of the world is actually terrified of the America’s erratic behavior)
Fourth, the administration should reconsider providing the oil, food, and light-water reactors which were part of the original “Framework Agreement” as long as North Korea agrees to undergo intensive “go anywhere, see anything” inspections conducted by the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.
A larger tragedy can still be averted if cooler heads prevail. The time for bluster is past. The present policy is a dead-loss which has put everyone in greater peril.
The North is currently working out the kinks in its Taepo-dong ICBM. If we are serious that “We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud,” (as Condi Rice opined) the administration must take positive steps to defuse the present crisis; its time to change directions, amend the policy, and negotiate a peaceful settlement. The alternatives are too horrific to consider.
Far left commentaries like these don’t do much to clarify an issue. This ain’t about Bush, who wasn’t born when, after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Kim Il-sung first dreamed of wielding the destuctive power of a nuclear weapon.
bluejives,
Uh, you may not have noticed but the Norks have been working on this for more than six years.
From your posts, the logical and safest thing to do would be go ahead and call in the b-52s from Guam before they actually have a usable weapon.
aww crap, lets just keep giving the toddler his pacifier, stop yelling at him and wait till he grows up and kills us…
But here’s something new- instead of posting the usual xenophobic ramblings he lifts someone else’s argument and slaps it on Marmot’s.
I can’t tell if this is a step forward or back…
Amen.
A chronology on North Korea’s ‘nucular’ history;
http://www.dprkstudies.org/doc.....-apdx1.pdf