Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is watching the area around Punggye-ri, Kilju-gun, Hamgyongbuk-do for a possible second North Korean nuclear test, reports Yonhap.
NIS believes this morning’s supposed nuke test took place in Kimchaek-si.
NIS chief Kim Seung-kyu told lawmakers on the National Assembly intelligence committee that his boys were closely watching the Punggye-ri area, where intelligence officials initially believed a test would take place.
One lawmaker said Kim warned that there was sufficient possibility the North would conduct additional tests.
Korea’s chief spook explained that the morning test took place not in Hwadae-gun, as initially reported, but near Sangpyeong-ni, a town some 15 km away from Kimchaek-si. Sangpyeong-ni is 51 km south of Punggye-ri and 48 km west of the North Korean missile base in Hwadae-gun. Or so an Uri Party lawmaker on the intelligence committee said Kim said.
Interestingly, Kim is reported to have said that this morning’s test area was under surveillance up till Sep. 7, but when no unusual signs were detected, NIS decided to concentrate on the Punggye-ri site. Also interesting is that he said the United States still believes this morning’s test took place at Punggye-ri, indicating that Korean and American intelligence officials differ in their analysis. Kim said more minute intelligence analysis was needed.
The NIS chief also noted that with the tremors posting a mere 3.58, the warhead tested this morning was presumed to be under 1 kt (a 1 kt device would cause tremors of over 4.0). He also said it would take 3-5 days to confirm the presence of radiation and, likewise, confirm whether the North actually did what they said they did, namely, successfully test a nuclear device.
For more news about the North Korean nuke test, see this continuously updated post.
22 Comments
So they bought at least two of them?
Everyone talks about this seismic activity, but wasn’t the hole for the bomb testing much deeper than that which is standardly used. Couldn’t the additional depth have contributed to a weaker seismic reading? I’m not expert, but it seems plausible.
Shouldn’t… The Richter scale is supposed to measure how much energy was released by the seismic event, not necessarily how much the ground shakes in any one location.
I doubt it. North Korea wouldn’t use all its plutonium in one test, would it? It will blow up a couple of smaller batches to make it seem like they have more than they really do.
Besides, I’m still not fully convinced that the whole thing isn’t as fake as a North Korean satellite in space. Nuclear tests can be simulated, after all.
http://www.llnl.gov/str/Carrigan.html
They crossed the Rubicon. Whether the first test was a “fake” is irrelevent. “Fake” implies that they failed to produce weapons grade fissile materials or they have failed to create a working bomb design. I doubt they would stop over the latter, and I would think that they wouldn’t really know what is weapon grade unless they kept experimenting like this. So. As someone else was quoted in the NYT, even a “fizzle” means that the NK scientists are one step closer to a full blown working fission bomb. That is, one step closer to a fusion bomb and one step closer to making it smaller. They are willing to piss off everyone, they sure are not going to stop any “real” nuclear research they are doing. Once they succeed, they can probably get refined materials easier–without worrying about american cruise missiles. Then they can start pumping them out like sausages.
I really really really doubt that Roh Moo Hyun will yawn at this as some people imply. This act means that he has some serious soul searching to do about whether South Korea must reach parity with DPRK. He was quoted as saying that Korea would be willing to support UN Chapter 7 actions. You can tell by the tone of his voice that he was pretty pissed.
I can imagine a crazy world where US doesn’t want an opposition leader in the Blue House. China better come with a quick way to convince South Korea & Japan that they don’t need to go nuclear. South Korea may put a stop to Geumgang or whatnot, but the pressure to nuclearize will be strong. Japan will probably follow suit if SK does do it.
Ban Ki-Moon in UN is probably a good thing right now.
That is, of course, if you think Ban Ki-Moon is still going to be “leading” the UN after this. Together with alienating the closest thing to a friend the Korean race has ever had in 5000 years of history, failing to stop the North Korean Bomb (hell, funding its development) is one of his signal diplomatic achievements. Good work, Ban! Must be keeping his claimed reserve of “hidden strength” for some future shocker, like the arrival of space aliens.
Well, there doesn’t seem to be a veto coming yet from Bolton. Having a SK as head of UN at around the time when chapter 7 resolutions gets passed is probably one of those really “strong” messages to send to DPRK, especially since they were on the receiving end of the chapter 7 in 1950. Also, he has the support of Russia and China. I haven’t seen 5 of the 6 party nations united like this in a loooong time. Even Roh is talking tough. If SK or China doesn’t go for sanctions, it ain’t happening, so why not let him be in charge of it? Politically it will be next to impossible for Roh to continue with Geumgang anyway. DPRK seems to have made their own noose, and is forcing SK to tie it around her neck, kicking and screaming.
Good news seems to be that the NK bomb isn’t in working order yet. If ICBM development can severe Korean-US alliance, nuclear developement can re-establish it. NK doesn’t seem to realize that SK people don’t give a rat’s ass about the abstract ICBM who can’t hurt them, but nukes are a different story.
‘BAN DECLARED NEXT SECRETARY GENERAL OF UN!’ world headlines.
Still wondering if Ban will be leading the UN, lawyer?
Some observations:
1. This is Bush’s fault. For more than six years, all the twit has done is threaten NK with ‘all options are on the table’. Did he ever once sit down and speak directly with the North Koreans? Nope. That would have been appeasement, wouldn’t it, yahoo expat? Better to look tough rather than achieve what you say you want to achieve, ie no nukes in the north. The blame clearly lies with Bush.
2. All the yahoo expats now talking tough as they pack their dresses and head for the airport. But let’s get real here; the US can’t do much of anything. A blockade? Not without SK’s approval and we know that won’t be forthcoming. The fact is that Bush can’t do squat. But many of you should continue to engage in self delusion and pretend you’re going to huff and puff and blow North Korea down.
3. This idea that China can do whatever it wants with North Korea doesn’t seem to be true since it didn’t have any power to stop the North. This idea of China dominating Koreans is pure ejaculative fantasy on the part of the Texas expat.
4. Koreans should not panic, things will back to normal in a couple of days.
5. North Korea has now played its last card. Nothing more to threaten the world with. Now, now, expat, calm down, don’t get your pocket pen holder all bent out of shape. North Korea using its bomb would be the end of NK and the North Koreans know it.
‘ah, the expat, hails from the sewer and doesn’t even know it.’ pawi, the sage
Pawi, all the “expatriate yahoos” is the reason why I stopped posting on this site. BUT. Korea will not be the same. We are talking flippin’ nukes. North Korea IS going nuclear. It is only a matter of when they will have the big bomb. I know, I know. We’ve all been saying this. But I mean they WILL have a working nuke by say, the end of the year. You think South Korean government will remain the same way? This sort of thing can crash the Roh government. So far all the old people went along with the Korean red hippies, because they just wanted to avoid a war. Roh Moo Hyun himself stated that he can’t go on the way he has when he has been essentially betrayed. Korean people don’t care about crappy NK missiles who can’t really harm anyone–they were paper tigers and only Japan and US would flip out about them. But nukes are different. Sure, people will still go on doing business the way they have and watch the same variety shows and dramas and what not. But foreign policy has changed fundamentally. Look, Koizumi was a regular guy who went to Yasukuni couple times to win some votes and SK basically turned her back on him. Now Abe, is a serious Hinomaru waving, samurai sword weirding, right winger who really really really believes in honoring Tojo at Yasukuni on a moral basis. BUT. He just got an open arm reception from Roh. No one gives two hundred wons about Dokdo or textbooks when there is a nuke on the horizons.
Oh and two more things.
China can turn off the food and oil nozzle. On a moral basis, I am always against stopping food delivery. But oil is different. China can turn that off. China MIGHT really do it this time. China wants DPRK to exist, but not at the expense of having a nuclear DPRK. (which might mean nuclear SK or Japan or, better yet, Taiwan)
Secondly, DPRK has not played her final card. We all know what that final card is. The card that can’t win, but can make sure no one wins either. I’ll let you contemplate what that final card might be.
The data implies the test was hardly a success.
I am not highly doubtful if NK has the amount of fuel to conduct a second test, or enough knowledge to do so (had the reason for failure was not a result of fuel quality/quantity)
See technical data and analysis here:
http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/20.....ccess.html
I am of the opinion that SK NIS screwed up again this time.
It is extremely unlikely that the USGS location is wrong, if you look at its track record in locating quake epicenters. The USGS coordinate indicated it is the punggye-ri site.
One way to see this is as another bluff from North Korea. South Korea had a nuclear program in the 1970s, which it has supposedly stopped, yet the South Korean government has claimed to have purified some plutonium on at least one occasion in recent years for ‘research purposes’. By doing the test, North Korea is hoping to challenge the South to conduct its own test, thus raising questions about whether South Korea ever ceased its nuclear program or not. This would put Ban Ki Moon and the UN security council between a rock and a hard place.
어리석은 pawi, 一名 nuljimaripkan 曰
Tough talk from a New Yorker [out of range of the missiles] who doesn’t know didly squat about Korea…
> BUT. Korea will not be the same. We are talking flippin’ nukes.
Eh. How much did nukes change Pakistan and India? Sure, circumstances are different, but clearly people can adjust, even to nukes.
I could see Bush’s fault in refusing to talk to North Korea, but it was Bill Cliton and Kim Dae Jung who groomed North Korea to expect aid in exchange of turning the nuclear program to peaceful uses.
Kim Jong Il probably wants enormous aid and a US guaranttee that there will be no invasions to North Korea, ever, under any circumstance. And, he wants a nuke to back up such a deal in paper.
So the ever fearful and anxiety ridden OCD Kim Jong Il is at fault. He wants it both ways. He wants a nuke. He wants a written deal. And he wants aid.
In this process of protecting mainly “himself” and serving the immediate interest of “himself” and some other loyal subjects, he destroyed a generation of North Koreans’s lives.
Bush is not the evil one. America had no incentive to keep pumping aid. That would be like hauling aid to Iran right now to make them stop their crap, but they would be building up WHILE receiving aid.
Fuck Kim Jong Il for actually testing a nuke. I hope he suffers in his later years.
Clinton
LOL DDA–I saw the news last night at Narita airport while we were waiting for our flight back to Seoul, so I guess I’m a tough guy for flying into the eye of the storm.
Sunbin’s probably right, the norks shot their wad with this one (time to bust out some counterfeit Viagra). Like their “intercontinental” missile that couldn’t leave the Sea of Petty Name Dispute. It reeks of desperation.
Time to crank up the sanctions, the only foreign policy that Bush is doing right.
“4. Koreans should not panic, things will back to normal in a couple of days.” Korea is never “normal,” but since you don’t live here how would you know?
Not sure if this is just rhetoric and gamesmanship coming from the West, but increasingly it is looking like the NK’s nuke was no great success. Small, maybe quite faulty. I’m beginning to think the North Koreans build nukes the way South Koreans build cars — first rate for exports, but underpowered pieces of crap at home.
“Eh. How much did nukes change Pakistan and India? Sure, circumstances are different, but clearly people can adjust, even to nukes.”
That’s exactly what North Korea wants to happen in the long run…well, until it starts exporting nukes and producing missiles that can reach the US.
Is it just me or is little Kim getting a bit desperate? It seems like the end is getting very near for our dear dictator. It wouldn’t surprise me if the generals decides to take him behind the woodshed and do him in.
Origami, I seriously doubt it. A lot of the top generals are his half-brothers (Kim Il Sung got around) and cousin (his uncles got around).
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