Outside intelligence agencies, which have admittedly been incredibly wrong before, have been saying NK had a handful of nukes since the mid-1990s. It was a pretty safe bet they had a few by 2000, and it has been pretty much accepted they have had a few before 2006. It is the same with the ICBM. They proved they had some workable technology back in 1998. This is not a case of them just applying the scientific method. They didn’t just decide to test this stuff after they developed it.

Now that would be a sign of desparation–terrorism. My guess is as good as anyone else’s here, and I don’t see this test as a sign of collapse (although that sure would be nice!).

Make a bomb –> test missile–> test bomb = all a very logical order. Nothing new in this.

…but, we’ve been saying we believed they had 1 or 2 bombs since the early to mid-1990s. They have said they have a bomb since 2002 or so. They have also had enough Russian and former communist block nations scientists on the payroll to have the talent to build a nuke. So test it. They need a test for data. A fake test is like a male faking an orgasam - what’s the point?

Next, I agree with blueballs — in the past, I always gave a big yawn and smirk to those predicting NK would fall.

But, I am willing to join that group now. The moves China has made over the last 12 months, the moves the US has made, and how NK has reacted to this all add up to NK going down for the count. The vultures are circling….

I just wonder if they will go out with a bang?

Next, I do say NK has used up its two biggest geopolitical cards. More ICBM tests and nuke tests will add some pressure, but they are not as good as the first time.

However, I predicted after the ICBM test (or before it) that after the next step (nuke test) - the next phase would be for NK to return to —- blood letting.

I would look for NK to try to make itself the PLO of East Asia.

If I were the Japanese captain of some navy patrol boats or even larger ships, I’d start running a lot of drills, because sometime within the next 12 months, you are going to get shot at by a NK sub or navy vessel or you will have to shoot at one invading Japan’s waters. The same thing goes for South Korea’s navy and people at the DMZ.

I think a Peublo US navy type stunt could happen. I think anything is on the table. NK has blown up passenger planes before. It has sent commando teams to the Blue House to kill SK’s president. It has blown up the South Korean government visiting a third nation. —— I look for that to return in 2007 or 2008 —- as well as look for NK to collapse (or be taken out) before the end of 2008.

The only thing that will change my mind is a major move by China to prop NK up - which would be a big reversal of the latest moves we’ve seen China make over the last 12 months.

I don’t see that happening…..

http://www.thebulletin.org/art.....n=jf05kang

It is easier to write a letter once having obtained an envelope in which to send it.

Well, now that our nuclear neighbor to the North has rattled his tiny glowing sabre once again, I feel obliged to offer my layman opinions online for all the masses to see what little i know about the world political……

Right, Sunch’ŏn is just north-east of p’yŏngsŏng-shi 平城市, itself just north of the capital.

I guess the location will come known for sure in a while.

It seems Chiktong is a different location, as Sunchon city is just north of Pyongyang.
P’unggye-yŏk or pyungye-ri seems to be the one.

The new location (15km from kimchaek city) quoted by SK intelligence in Marmot’s new post (titled “2nd test planned?”) continues to contradict seismic information, it is amazing how bad these people are. They didn’t even bothered to check the coordinates of USGS (or with their own geologists).
They made many embarrassing mistake on the taepodong test already.