The Marmot’s Hole

Welcome: Welcome all of you dropping in from the Claremont Institute.  And a big thanks to Josh Trevino for his very kind words about this blog.

Marmot’s note: This post will continue to be updated below

Original post: Yonhap is reporting that it appears North Korea tested a nuclear device sometime Monday morning, and that the nations concerned have exchanged intelligence.

That’s all the report says. Undoubtedly, there will be more.

UPDATE 1: A little more detailed Yonhap report. A high-ranking South Korean intelligence official told Yonhap that it received intel that North Korea carried out a nuke test this morning, and that Seoul was now examining things.

President Roh has apparently called a snap meeting of security-related ministeries to discuss measures. Attending this meeting was UN General Secretary Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok, Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung and Cheong Wa Dae national security secretary Song Min-soon.

And here I was, thinking a nuke test wasn’t imminent.

BTW, the Grand National Party decided yesterday to call for Roh’s resignation in the event of a North Korean nuke test. Will be interesting to watch if the reports are accurate.

UPDATE 2: OK, I guess it’s official now—the KCNA is reporting a successful underground nuke test. You’ll be happy to know that amidst the chest thumping over this “historic” moment, the KCNA did assure us that no radioactivity leaked from the test site. Oh, and the test was conducted using 100 percent homegrown technology—mansei!

And for a bit more specific info about the earlier intel, it appears a 3.58-scale earthquake was detected around Hwadae, Hamkyongbuk-do at 10:36 a.m. Korea time.

UPDATE 3: Reuters (via Yonhap) is reporting that the USGS hasn’t seen anything in North Korea over the last 48 hours. Hmmm….

Also through Reuters via Yonhap, it appears China got word of the impending test 20 minutes before it was carried out. Beijing then immediately notified Washington, Seoul, Tokyo and presumably Moscow.

UPDATE 4: A senior White House official has confirmed North Korea tested a nuclear device, reports FOX News. He did say, however, the blast was considerably smaller than what Pyongyang was hoping for.

Nice… taunting the North Koreans with size issues.

Anyway, I’d prefer to here something a bit more official at this point.

Oh, and South Korean stocks are apparently taking a beating. I guess this is a good time to buy.

UPDATE 5: OK, now the USGS is saying it detected a quake. A 4.2er, in fact. Close to the surface. I think we can assume it wasn’t Kim Jong-il farting.

UPDATE 6: Cheong Wa Dae is pretty pissed, if this statement is anything to go by (HT to Lost Nomad). Heck, Cheong Wa Dae even threw in the fact that South Korea is aligned with the United States. The Unification Ministry, on the other hand, did delay a shipment of rice, but at the same time issued a statement only a Unification Ministry official could make at a time like this.

Gar at Lost Nomad is also reporting that some South Korean official said the “Sunshine Policy” is dead, but I haven’t found any reports to confirm this and, to be frank, I doubt even a nuke test will lead to fundamental changes in Seoul’s North Korea policies.

UPDATE 7: Why today, you might ask? Well, Korean-language Money Today suggests that because today—Oct. 9—falls between two holidays in Korea: the anniversary of Kim Jong-il assuming the position of Korean Workers Party general secretary ( Oct. 8 ) and the anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers Party ( Oct. 10 ).

UPDATE 8: The South Korean military has upped its alert level. And to give you a better sense of just how nerve-shatteringly tense the situation here is right now, I report that Grand National Party leader Kang Jae-seop has ordered his fellow opposition lawmakers not to play golf or go out carousing. Describing the situation as one of “virtual semi-war,” Kang told GNP lawmakers that for the time being (and despite the fine weather), they should not play golf—even on the weekend!—or enter room salons or similar entertainment establishments. He did, however, make an exception for those lawmakers who had no choice but to shoot a round or two.

UPDATE 9: If you like reading what Timothy Savage had to say about today in OhMyNews International, here it is. Meanwhile, the Oranckay was just happy something finally happened.

UPDATE 10: YTN, quoting AP, points out that some in the United States question whether North Korea’s nuke test was as successful as they claim, and that because of the small size of the explosion, it was hard to draw any hard conclusions about what happened today.

***UPDATE 11: President Roh is now signaling an end to South Korea’s policy of unilaterally engaging Pyongyang.  In a press conference at Cheong Wa Dae, Roh said the North’s nuclear test—or what is believed to have been a nuke test, anyway—was a grave threat to peace in Northeast Asia, and that it would be difficult for Seoul to pursue engagement only with North Korea.  In particular, he said:

We won’t give up on a peaceful solution, a solution through dialogue, but we won’t be able to show patience and yield for everything and accept whatever North Korea does like [we did] in the past… I think Korea’s position to stress ‘continuing with dialogue only’ against the international community’s calls for hardline measures of punishments and pressure has disappeared.”

This is interesting not only because it signals that Seoul might—operative word is might—go along with tougher international measures against North Korea, but also because it’s quite frank about what South Korean policy vis-a-vis the North (i.e., “Bend over and provide the North with the KY Jelly”) has been up till now.

Like I noted before, Seoul is taking this seriously, at least for now.  The Cheong Wa Dae website has an official English translation of the presidential office’s earlier statement; of particular note is this rather blunt rhetoric:

Based on the ROK-U.S. alliance, our Armed Forces are fully prepared and equipped to thwart any provocation from North Korea. We warn the North to have a forthright recognition of this fact and refrain from making a misjudgment under any circumstances.

In the era of “independent defense” (jaju gukbang), it’s not a good sign when Seoul feels compelled to remind Pyongyang—in direct language—that South Korea enjoys a mutual defense pact with the United States while the North does not.

UPDATE 12: South Korean papers are printing long editorials.  No doubt the translators are busy translating as we speak.  If you read Korean, you can take a look at what the usual suspects (the Chosun Ilbo, Dong-A Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Kyunghyang Shinmun) have to say.  Otherwise, wait until the translations are posted.  However, don’t expect anything out of the ordinary—the Chosun and Friends spend as much time blasting Roh and his North Korea/United States policies as they do castigating Pyongyang, while the Hankyoreh warns the government against sticking its fork entirely in the intra-Korean relationship.

Interestingly, I didn’t see any of the mainstream media advocating that Seoul respond to the North’s nuclear test by developing its own independent nuclear deterrent.  Which, frankly, is what I would advocate.  Given how much Roh and the Uri Party folk talk about “independent defense,” I’m kind of disappointed nobody stood up today and said today’s test gives Seoul the perfect opportunity to put its money and technology where its “independent defense” rhetoric is.