North Korea’s launch of a Taepodong 2 ICBM and up to five SRBM (a Yonhap report says ten total missiles) is meant to cause the U.S. and Japan, and possibly others, to impose sanctions and take other negative diplomatic actions, which North Korea will use as a justification for continuing to avoid Six-Party Talks. This is a tactical move in its ongoing ‘strategic disengagement,’ which North Korea has been using since its uranium enrichment program was uncovered in October 2002.

Some internal yes, but mostly for isolation.

The fact it is happening so soon after the ICBM test failure leads me to believe they are really hurting. I think the moves the US has made within the last 12 months must have really hit Pyongyang hard. I don’t think the failure of the missile test alone would prompt a nuke test. This is too big a step to plop out like this - so soon after a failure. I’d expect another ICBM test if they were not hurting.

I still can’t believe they are going to test a nuke this soon either way. I would pick next May if we were running an office pool. If they light one up before the New Year, I think they will be ripe for collapse in 2007 ———– and I am NOT a person who has ever put much stock in the prediction of NK collapsing. I have always said they will fall one day - but whether 50 years from now or 5 months from now was anybody’s guess. —– If they test this nuke this soon, they are getting desperate.

Richardson over at Korea Liberator believes much of the ICBM testing and other things is geared for an internal audience. That could be true too, and again, the fact the nuke test is coming so soon after the ICBM test looks like a sign of desperation.

One thing I don’t think I’ve read anyone say — and I could have missed it because I’ve been too busy to read the news and blogs or schedule a toilet break —- is that this nuke test is also aimed at China:

I am sure Pyongyang is a good bit unhappy with Bejing. There have been a few headline worthy instances over the last year where China has decided to cooperate with the US against NK. Then there are the moves China has made on its own - sending troops to the border and claiming parts of Korean history - that were bound to piss Pyongyang off and make them worry.

And the Kim family regime is not the kind to back down when their “big brother” or “elder” in the “middle kingdom” tells them to be subservient and do what China wants. Even when down and out and against bad odds, NK would rather try to bully China into doing what Pyongyang wants rather than give in - as long as they have options - and they believe testing a nuke is one of those options.

A nuke test can, in NK’s eyes, put “pressure” on a number of players, external and internal.

They will test one before a year and half is up — whether tomorrow, or next May, or later….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_fourth

I hope you all enjoy that sweet Chuseok holiday, milking it for as many days as you can…

Roger and out,
kpmsprtd