Wishing all the readers of the Marmot’s Hole a happy Chuseok.
Heck, I’m in such a good mood, I’ll wish even non-readers of this blog a happy and healthy holiday.
I’m currently in Daejeon, i.e., Hanbat, where I visited some very interesting old missionary homes from the 1950s. Will post photos later. Will probably head down to nearby Nonsan today to snoop around the old port of Ganggyeong.
Oh, and for all you out there with office pools going for a North Korean nuke test, here’s a tip for you—I was reading yesterday that activity has been detected at a suspected North Korean test site, and Oct. 10 is the anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s ruling Korean Workers Party.
19 Comments
Happy Chusok nuke? My, cynical today, arent we, Robert? Lol.
Robert, I lived in Nonsan for two years - it’s an aptly-named place
Nonsan’s a bit of a bore, IMO. If you’re in that neck of the woods, and if you’ve not been there before, I really recommend a visit to the museum in Puyo. It’s a lovely place which presents its artifacts well. After that, there are a few nice restaurants by the river, and today’s a lovely day for that.
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Robert Said….
Oh, and for all you out there with office pools going for a North Korean nuke test, here’s a tip for you—I was reading yesterday that activity has been detected at a suspected North Korean test site, and Oct. 10 is the anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s ruling Korean Workers Party.
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Come on now, do you really think he will play both trump cards in the one hand? A beer of your choice on me if he does.
C
So how far does a 10 OCT post-Chuseok flight to the States have to go to be safe from EMP?
Free trips to Dokdo for those who can swim, I suppose.
Oh my God…that picture is even a harvest-festival, autumnal orange. Scary stuff.
“Hanbat”: please tell me no one is actually using that name. I have nothing against native Korean place names—Anjirang, Gimjanggol, Seoul—but I don’t know about nativizing Hanja names….
Not very far… Depends on whether the test is done underground (most likely) or not. But even if it was to be done aboveground, I would think just about anywhere over the horizon would be appraching safety, if not completely safe. For an EMP from the type of low-yield nuclear device the Norks are likely to be testing to reach South Korea, the device would probably more or less have to be detonated above South Korea, in which case there’s a bit more to worry about besides the EMP.
The Japanese government is expecting it could happen as early as Sunday, the anniversary of KJI’s becoming head of the KWP in 1997.
Some music for the possible occasion
So if we’re into a bit of flippant speculation, which will occur first:
A nork nuke explodes somewhere outside of North Korea, or a book appears in the United States with the title “Who Lost South Korea?”.
Seems to me the South has been feeding the crocodile for awhile, hoping it would eat someone else or just go to sleep, when in fact the crocodile is gazing at a fat, tethered goat.
Seems unlikely to me that the United States will fight a nuclear war to save South Korea. So does South Korea’s best hope rest with the (gasp!) hated Japanese?
Happy chuseok indeed…
I really do hope this all works out, but right now I am not sure how that will happen.
Bluejives, you have any more links to North Korean stuff? Although I disagree with the subject matter of the songs, the music is quite amusing/enterntaining and quite honestly well composed.
It’s like my head is telling me this is the devil’s music.
I dunno WJK, it sounds like typically overwrought, bombastic Stalinist-era crap to me.
I’m starting to believe they will do the test. An important factor in influencing their decision to do so would be that China has taken few concrete steps to stop them — it hasn’t cut off its fuel supply nor its food aid to North Korea. Regardless of China’s intentions, it gave the impression that it is willing to tolerate North Korea’s nuclear ambitions as long as the nation keeps in check American policy and relations in the region.
…and the communist regime remains in power.
And a Happy Chuseok, as we apparently now spell it, to you Robert, and to all of your readers. My dear brother back in the Midwest told me about the rising moon, and lo and behold, I ran into it just a few hours later in Sacramento as I rode that 1980 Suzuki GS850G due east.
I hope you all enjoy that sweet Chuseok holiday, milking it for as many days as you can…
Roger and out,
kpmsprtd
WJK, don’t you know that heavy metal is the devil’s music because of its heavy use of tritones (diminished fifths)?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_fourth
As the ICBM test came up, I predicted 1-5 years for a nuke test, then I dropped it to 1-3 after watching the missile test reaction. I now give it 1 to 1 1/2 years. They are moving much faster than I thought, but a nuke test is the next NK-logical step.
The fact it is happening so soon after the ICBM test failure leads me to believe they are really hurting. I think the moves the US has made within the last 12 months must have really hit Pyongyang hard. I don’t think the failure of the missile test alone would prompt a nuke test. This is too big a step to plop out like this - so soon after a failure. I’d expect another ICBM test if they were not hurting.
I still can’t believe they are going to test a nuke this soon either way. I would pick next May if we were running an office pool. If they light one up before the New Year, I think they will be ripe for collapse in 2007 ———– and I am NOT a person who has ever put much stock in the prediction of NK collapsing. I have always said they will fall one day - but whether 50 years from now or 5 months from now was anybody’s guess. —– If they test this nuke this soon, they are getting desperate.
Richardson over at Korea Liberator believes much of the ICBM testing and other things is geared for an internal audience. That could be true too, and again, the fact the nuke test is coming so soon after the ICBM test looks like a sign of desperation.
One thing I don’t think I’ve read anyone say — and I could have missed it because I’ve been too busy to read the news and blogs or schedule a toilet break —- is that this nuke test is also aimed at China:
I am sure Pyongyang is a good bit unhappy with Bejing. There have been a few headline worthy instances over the last year where China has decided to cooperate with the US against NK. Then there are the moves China has made on its own - sending troops to the border and claiming parts of Korean history - that were bound to piss Pyongyang off and make them worry.
And the Kim family regime is not the kind to back down when their “big brother” or “elder” in the “middle kingdom” tells them to be subservient and do what China wants. Even when down and out and against bad odds, NK would rather try to bully China into doing what Pyongyang wants rather than give in - as long as they have options - and they believe testing a nuke is one of those options.
A nuke test can, in NK’s eyes, put “pressure” on a number of players, external and internal.
They will test one before a year and half is up — whether tomorrow, or next May, or later….
Actaully this is what I had to say about that;
Some internal yes, but mostly for isolation.
Looks like he’s gone let off that test bomb.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asi.....032525.stm