The Marmot’s Hole

In a statement issued through the North Korean media, the North Korean Foreign Ministry wished us all a happy Chuseok by announcing Pyongyang would conduct a nuclear test (Korean version here).

At the same time, the ministry said it would never use nuclear weapons first and it would not permit the transfer of nuclear weapons.

Interestingly enough, it also pledged to make every effort to realize the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and accomplish nuclear disarmament at the global level.

North Korea explained it was taking new measures to strengthen its defensive war deterrent because of U.S. moves to isolate and pressure Pyongyang.

But fear not, because the ministry said that as a responsible nuclear power, North Korea would faithfully carry out its anti-proliferation duties in the international community.

North Korea’s final goal, it said, was not a denuclearization that would unilaterally disarm the North, but an end to the hostility between North Korea and the United States and a fundamental elimination of the nuclear threat on and around the Korean Peninsula.

The Japanese have already made it clear they’re pissed, with Foreign Minister Taro Aso saying a nuke test would be “totally unforgivable.” South Korea has yet to issue a statement, although I’d imagine the Foreign Ministry will soon make a statement condemning the North Korean announcement (to be followed soon after by a Cheong Wa Dae statement slamming Japanese rightists for overreacting). Ordinarily, I’d say Seoul would be pissed that Pyongyang issued its statement right after the conclusion of snap intra-Korean military talks. But this is Roh’s South Korea, which means anything short of a nuclear airburst over Cheong Wa Dae is unlikely to make Seoul take a tough line with Pyongyang. Of course, I could be wrong, and I hope I am.

Marmot’s Note: If I had to guess, I’d say the likelihood of a North Korean nuclear test is high, but like all things North Korean, you never know what they’ll do until they actually do it. Personally, as long as they don’t test it in my neighborhood, I couldn’t give a rat’s ass whether the North Koreans test a nuke or not. Frankly, I’m more concerned whether I’ll be able to get standing-room tickets on the KTX on Thursday.

UPDATE: A Cheong Wa Dae spokesman has issued an underwhelming statement explaining that a ministerial meeting led by President Roh’s national security secretary Song Min-soon had decided to strengthen Korea’s early-warning monitoring of North Korea (”Gee, they seem to be preparing a nuke test.  How peculiar!”) and react according to existing contingency plans for a North Korean nuke test.  The spokesman noted that President Roh has said numerous times that North Korea would not be permitted to have nuclear weapons, and that Roh said during the recent Korea-U.S. summit that a North Korean nuke test would lead to a “completely different situation.”

A key Cheong Wa Dae official told Yonhap News that the government was sticking with its principle of not permitting North Korea to possess nukes and that it is responding in accordance with its policy of expressing serious regret about Pyongyang’s nuke test plans.