The Marmot’s Hole

Some time in late 2004 or early 2005, I started predicting that the Uri party would break up* by the end of 2006 as different factions positioned themselves ahead of the 2007 presidential election.

Frankly, it looks like I will have to eat some humble pie since Uri seems to be hanging together for the moment.

But this gives me cause for hope(Korea Herald):

High-profile politicians in and outside the ruling Uri Party yesterday floated the idea of creating a new party with middle-of-the-road reformist forces, including popular presidential hopeful Goh Kun.

Chyung Dai-chul, a senior adviser of the Uri Party, proposed forming a new party excluding President Roh Moo-hyun. He was chief campaigner for Roh in the 2002 presidential election.

“Roh does not have to bolt from his party if we were to create a new party. We have to let him stay in his party and do his job,” Chyung told a radio show.

That last bit must be a kick in the balls for the true believers in the party. I remember when Uri used to be billed as a break from the old politics of the past. Part of that old politics was competition between parties centered around a single strong leader or group of oligarchs. Now it seems that Uri may not survive long past Roh Moo-hyun’s presidency.

*To qualify as a real break-up in my mind, Uri would have to lose enough seats in the National Assembly to lose their plurality (16 at the moment).