This preview of a piece in the upcoming issue of Atlantic Montly by Robert Kaplan was just featured on Instapundit, which means that our State-side brothers and sisters will be seeing a lot of it over the next few weeks via links and emails.
I think someone else here has already talked about Kaplan’s piece (Yeah, the Hole’s very own dear leader already posted it in full.). If not, someone will surely talk about it soon.
In any case, the preview deserves a link because it also links to this old post by “Big Nick” Eberstaldt and a paper by Andrei Lankov (pdf file) on the fall of Stalinism in North Korea.
BTW, If Lankov does not get a talking head segment on Nightline the next time Kim Jong-il and the boys act up; there is no justice in the world.
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In fact, just recently a guy who calls himself “Marmot” wrote about this:
http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/.....collapses/
Robert Kaplan wrote a simplistic view of NK. KJI is doing it all by himself? I don’t think so! Is he disobeying chinese leaders? I don’t think so.
If he shot missiles in direct opposition to the Chinese, he must be really mad! He is not mad. He is just a dog. A loyal dog to the Chinese.
He talked and got permission right before shooting those missiles. He is just following Hu’s orders verbatim. NK regime is stronger than ever, as China secretly supplies money and oil.
It is rather SK which will implode soon, as the US Forces rapidly pull out of Korea.
Doh!
I knew I read it somewhere before. At this point, all these NK pieces tend to run together in my brain.
Well, actually, this is a post about the article getting play on a big American blog and those other links. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Works for me
Anyway, Baduk’s right about the money and oil, only it’s not a big secret, only the extent of it, which is probably far greater than what outsiders estimate.
As I read the Lankov paper, and the good Dr. is far more knowledgeable on NK than Kaplan, the Stalinist model for North Korea is dead, AND there is an increased possibility that the regime (sorry, dynasty) will collapse. But, again my take, collapse in neither inevitable, nor necessarily around the corner. Or, in other words, the Fat Boy could be enjoying his extra-premium cognac up in his villa ten years from now, enjoying the security afforded by his single party state and loyal armed forces, counting the money his latest ventures have earned him. Korean Stalinism is dead, but the NorK state is not dead yet. Perhaps I’m just a pessimist and it affects my reading.
kaplan is a simplistic dink. WTF is the “green zone?” too much time on the bases and not enough with korean policymakers.
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[...] With “The Natural Death of North Korean Stalinism,” Andrei Lankov, possibly the Western world’s single authentic North Korea expert, has just provided us with an impressive collection of empirical evidence to support his argument that the North Korean regime’s control apparatus is losing its grip (a big hat tip to Andy Jackson). Those whose interest in North Korea is inversely proportional to the availability of information about it will pore through this article, fascinated at the amount and quality of information. The picture he paints is of systemic decay, of a gargantuan apparatus of control so saturated with “subversive” information that it simply lacks the time and prison space to suppress all of it. With the exception of one small quibble I’ll get to later — the word “Natural” — Lankov’s conclusions are well supported by these facts. I read Bradley Martin’s book the way most men claim to read Playboy — for the interviews — but Lankov grasps the bigger picture. [...]