Joshua at The Korea Liberator has posted an interview he conducted with Chuck Downs, one of the foremost U.S. experts on North Korean negotiating strategies. Be sure to read the whole thing in its entirety. Here’s just something to get you started:
It’s clear that the SK government wants to give lip service to the alliance, but its point of view is at odds with the basic rationale for the alliance. You can’t have an alliance when one side tries to portray the other as an oppressive presence. When this develops, as it did in the Philippines, there is no alternative but to accelerate the reduction in the American presence. The government in South Korea is now limiting us in ways that reduce our capabilities and change our obligations in a legal sense. In such situations, the U.S. tends to respond extremely quickly. When the host government isn’t stridently calling for us to stay and address a common threat, it’s hard for us to justify continuing the troop presence. No one ever thought we’d leave the Philippines, either, but our presence is always based on how the host country views our forces. If the host country starts doing things like changing the basic command structure, it’s a fundamental shift in the way the alliance works. You will hear the U.S. side say that it will move quickly to do what the host government wants. You can’t do something good for the host government that the host doesn’t recognize as a good thing. We are not the Soviets and this isn’t the Warsaw Pact. We are not a colonial power. If the host country doesn’t want us there, we won’t stay.
Now, I don’t think this means a pull-out from Korea completely, but if we hear the South Korean government say that we are there to work for our own interests, but not theirs, then we can be out in a number of months.
Read the rest on your own.
16 Comments
Terrific interview. Very informative. Thanks for linking to it.
hahahaha ha
An absolute must-read, no less — thank you very much, Robert! Mr. Downs promised to drop in and respond to questions in the comments thread, so feel free to ask away.
I really enjoyed reading Chuck Downs’ views on the Korean/American situation, he obviously knows what he is talking about and definitely an expert on the matter at hand. Thanks for linking this in Robert.
What I can’t understand is, since the Republicans are controlling all three branches of government, and well, quite frankly that pussy Truman is long dead, why can’t we finish the Korean War in terms favorable to the U.S. and the ROK?? Moreover, it’s just senseless to allow North Korea, and the traitor Roh to continue to position themselves in creating more severe and profound problems for us in the long-run, as happened during the Clinton administration. It’s pretty obvious that North Korea, and their South Korean commie buddy Roh, that they can only hope for indecisiveness to happen in the ROK with the usual student protests against the American presence, while the DPRK continues to strain its relations with China and the US. What can be the real result of this policy in terms of a realistic outcome? Unification?? No way in the hell with this ever happen while there’s two idiots controlling both Koreas with senseless rhetoric preventing any serious efforts or progress being made toward the Sunshine Policy, nor the unification effort. Does the DPRK really think it can absorb the ROK in a peaceful transition? Doesn’t the ROK have way better positioning with American influence and power by remaining at war with the DPRK? Without question, the American presence in large numbers is needed in Asia, and the ROK specifically to maintain the peace with its “big stick.”
It’s clear the China, Russia, and those ever-sneaky French are going to be on the US hitlist, as well as the DPRK, as the real benefactors of the Gulf War in having supplied weaponry and technology to the anti-American forces. Let’s finish the Korean War once and for all right now, and prevent any of this remnant WWII and subsequent Cold War problem with decisive military action. Forget any negotiations.
–Remort
Korean situation is over. The other day the US successful tested MD system on NK missle scenario. NK is no problem for the US with exception of missle and nuke technology transfer but these can be intercepted in high seas.
Besides, these smugglings are actually done by the Chinese and NKs are just a front “foot soldiers”. There is no need to hit pawns when the problem is China. “The fish stinks from the head”.
Let the fools in the region kill off one another. There is no justification for the US to meddle in these regional hegemony fight between China and Japan and fools in the middle, NK and SK.
Time for the US to exit from this theater and concentrate on the efforts in Middle East. The region will take care of itself. China and Japan will keep peace for a while, and they will go after each other.
Only country that the US has to protect is Taiwan. Ever since Nixon’s selling out of Taiwan, the US feels strong obligation to defend the people of the island.
Korea? Koreans chose to strengthen their ties to northern breathren and decide to re-join Great Chinese Empire. It is Koreans’ choice. A ridiculous choice to go work for the Chinese whose monthly income is $100. An eye-opening shock waits for South Koreans. I expect rape and pillage by NK first and then by the Chinese. But, Koreans have the right to choose their own destiny.
I think Rummy is doing the right thing. Shock Koreans into action. Make high demands. Push them to make decision. Then, see what comes out.
Give Koreans the wartime command, disband Combine Forces Command and announce further US troop withdrawal from Korea.
Either Koreans will turn around or they will go on their way. But, the US should shock them so that they have chance to wake up (a military coup). The majority of Koreans are lost. They have no idea about where Korea should go. Simplistic fools.
The US should shock them. Rummy is doing the right thing.
When pushed to the limit, Korea will either
1) turn Commie, join NK and bow to KJI
or
2) rise up, purge Commies, and re-establish strong relationship with the US
Korea has been dreaming about staying neutral from upcoming conflicts, be it US-NK, US-China(over Taiwan) or China-Japan. Koreans have been wrong in their projection that the US will start a war in this region. So, stupid they are.
The US will only shrink its presence in the area and let Japan deal with China. Only conflict that will happen in the area will be between Japan and China. Therefore, for Korea to survive, it has to strenghten ties with the US.
Koreans, simpletons they are, are doing the opposite. Fools die.
O prophet Baduk,
I see now of what you speak.
But, can not the Koreans have their cake and eat it too?
Entice KJI into launching an attack againt our mortal enemy those “evil japs” and then SK, along with U.S roll into N.K under the pretext of liberating those poor N.K citizens of their evil tyrant..? I wish I wish…sigh
ghola,
Where have been, man? The US is pulling out of Korea in a hurry. I told you the US has succeed in the MD test; NK is no problem.
NK can shoot some missles to Japan. And, Japan will bomb NK and even attempt amphibious landing.
The US will be busy attacking Iran.
What happens in Far East is non-issue for the US.
I guess the “dust” has settled enough from the previous worldwide conflicts. Enough countries had enough time to recupe or awake to senses and are now willing to risk “everything”. Middle east has to be played out.. But N.E Asia, I think, can settle their differences, even with KJI in power. There are plenty of greedy men in the region to make it so.
O prophet Baduk says;
What happens in Far East is non-issue for the US.
my question to you sir prophet is: then why is the 7th fleet along with the 8th, ninth and tenth doing docked, parked and cocked, right over there and there ? huh? can you answer that ?
Real good stuff in that interview; thanks Robert & Joshua!
The man has wisdom and perspective:
“After all, we didn’t attack North Korea when South Korean governments wanted a more hostile policy toward North Korea. It’s true that South Korea now tends to stay our hand, but I’m not sure we’d want to pursue hostile action anyway. Iraq also restrains our options, but from doing something we’d prefer not to do anyway.”
Roh’s game plan is to get rid of the US forces in Korea, so that he can “freely” negotiate for peace with North Korea without North Korea accusing South Korea of being a puppet state of America. This is the logic of the delusional left. The game plan has worked brilliantly, the US will be out of Korea by next year. It has only taken several years to dismantle what was built over several decades.
Anti-Roh, anti communist Koreans who see what’s going on now, will have to accept the fact that South Korea will now have to come up with a plan to minimize the economic and military damage that will ensue with the dissappearance of protection of the US military.
I don’t think it will be the end of the world when the US leaves, but the initial damage to the Korean economy and its world reputation will be deep.
Anti-Roh, anti communist Koreans who see what’s going on now, will have to accept the fact that South Korea will now have to pick up the pieces and clean up the mess after the Roh and his pinkish comrades are gone from the office.
cm,
It is the end of world for Koreans. NK will get additional weapons from China and wait for the US-Iran war to start.
Then, NKs will come down, with backing of China. This will happen after Beijing Olympics of 2008. I expect 2009 or 2010.
SK will lose as it did in 1950. There will be no strong will to defend the country. The class struggle between the rich and the poor will implode the country as it happened in VietNam. NKs will do cakewalk into SK.
You know, it’s interesting how the article is the views someone who knows what he’s talking about, and the comments have been spamed by someone who doesnt…
There’s a related article here.
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engne.....624E2.html
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