ABC, quoting unnamed officials, is reporting that North Korea may be preparing to test a nuclear device.
Yawn.
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ABC, quoting unnamed officials, is reporting that North Korea may be preparing to test a nuclear device.
Yawn.
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11 Comments
Hope the wind isn’t blowing south when they light up that puppy.
“So long and thanks for all the rice.”
OK, that was funny.
I remember reading that N. Korea could set off nukes at it’s south eastern most point and have the wind carry large amounts of radiation to Tokyo. They could essentially bomb Japan or S. Korea without ever dropping a bomb on their soil. Wouldn’t that be a mess to try and say they can’t do, since they seem to think they have the inherit right to counterfeit money, why can’t they strategically test bombs on their own soil in a way that doesn’t hurt their own citizens but does others.
Considering that one NGO group in South Korea now says that 54,700 people died in recent flooding in North Korea and 2.5 million people lost their homes, I would hope *no one* sends them rice or aid. These people had the nerve to talk to South Korea like a threatening pimp, claiming that their songun policy was good for the neighborhood so now they should use their mystical juche power ™ and take care of their people first instead of thinking of bombs.
If North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, the time to strike Pyongyang to decapitate the DPRK is immediately after the test. While they may have the ability to truck a single nuclear warhead underground, set it up with the help of dozens of scientists and test it, North Korea does not yet have the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon to the battlefield. Yet that’s definitely next. Why should we have to wait for them to perfect that technology? A nuke test will either be the end of the North Korean regime, or the end of the ROK-US “alliance” and American protection of South Korea. (With the current crew of nitwits in power here I rather suspect the latter.) An alternative would be a coup d’etat in South Korea by national-security elements. Either way, a nuke test underground in North Korea will be terrible for my business.
Let’s seek a win-win situation: Simultaneously, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon on Tehran and Iran tests one on Pyongyang.
Reports of “suspicious vehicle movement” together with “the view of the intelligence community that a test is a real possibility” fail to fill me with fear.
Well, the good news is this time the test’s execution will not be an embarrassment if it last less than a minute… Regardless, the operative word is “may.” The harsh reality is even if the North goes ahead with even a successful test, there is not much the rest of the world will be able or willing to do as a response. I think Kim Jong-Il learned that lesson well from July’s missile launches.
Even sanctions are overturned — quite rightly — due to humanitarian concerns. Thanks to the North’s Kim Extended Family, one can count on the country routinely coming across as a humanitarian basket case. Parenthetically, when I was up at Panmunjeom last week, I was struck by how extraordinarily skinny were the N Korean soldiers — I can only wonder how the rest may look, assuming the DPRK puts its most robust personnel in the Joint Security Area.
Given all factors, Kim Jong-Il probably feels he has more to gain than to lose by going ahead with a nuclear test. And, of course, there will be a good number of starry-eyed loonies south of the DMZ puffing out their chests with pride. Uri manjok ggiri mansei!)
let me predict the south korean response.
1) Deny and say US is overreacting.
SK cannot confirm that North Korea is planning on a nuclear test. The US war hawks are trying to push NK into a corner. (of course we have no means of confirming such a thing since we rely on the US for such surveilance but we don’t have to tell anybody that.)
once the bomb does go off
2) Deny yet again.
a large “possible” explosion of unknown origin has been reported in North Korea but we can’t confirm it is a nuclear explosion and it would be foolish to think so. ( our brothers would never do such a thing but if they did we would get the bomb when we reunify- yahoo)
3-4 days after indisputable proof a nuclear device was set off and the rest of the world community has already condemned the action.
3) grudginly condemn action. (well we kinda have to softly condemn it and cut off aid for now- wink wink.)
1-2 months after the nuclear test
4) aid to NK is flowing once again.
when this all plays out i’m sure many of you will be utterly amazed by my powers of prediction.
War to take the North out is a real possibility if the North tests a nuke, but I think it will not happen.
The US facing enough pressure to see it give in and cut any kind of deal to quiet things down is also a real possibility, but I think it will not happen.
3 months after a nuke test will look much like 3 months before it. There will be some differences, but the key points will remain the same.
But — we should all fear a nuke test, because what comes after that is worse (in a way).
If the North fails to push the United States into cutting any deal possible with it after a nuke test - the next level will be blood letting. They will turn to killing people as the means of provocation. The fact the nuke test might come so soon after the ICBM test leads me to believe the North is hurting enough to use killing on a fairly frequent basis. The next step could be trying to creat an East Asian Palestine. The North has used blood letting in the past when it was a much stronger nation, and such attacks were spaced out over considerable time. It could be very different if a nuke test fails to get the North what it wants.