Bruce Klingner can always be counted on for some interesting pieces and he doesn’t disappoint in his latest over at AsiaTimes. His main points (sent via email):
-Chinese and Russian acquiescence to stronger language in UN Resolution 1695 left Seoul nearly as isolated as Pyongyang.
-Washington and Tokyo have regained the initiative and will be able to push a harder line against North Korea while Seoul’s engagement policy faces dwindling domestic support.
-The revelation that the Bank of China froze North Korean assets in 2005 shows Beijing will be more willing to constrain North Korean proliferation or illicit activities, but will limit its involvement to targeted action against specific entities in response to direct US requests.
-Growing strains in Seoul’s relationship with Washington could lead the Bush administration to announce further reductions in US ground troops in Korea
Be sure to read the whole thing before coming back….
I am not sure if I would characterize Roh as being any more isolated on his NK policies than before the missile launches. The US has not trusted Roh for a long time, which is why we hear stories like this from time to time. Also, as Klingner points out, China will only go so far in punishing their little buffer-state buddies in Pyongyang. They are working at least as hard as Roh to keep the Kim Jong-il regime afloat.
So isolated is not a word I would use for Roh’s NK policies. I would use another one:
Failure.
After five years of the Sunshine policy and almost four of Son of Sunshine, Seoul has precious little to show for its efforts aside from the Geumgangsan and Gaeseong boondoggles, which mainly serve as conduits of hard currency from Seoul to Kim Jeong-ils boys in Pyongyang. Oh, they also produced family reunions that Pyongyang can hold hostage at will.
That is why I thought it was interesting to hear anti-Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok said that the US failed the most when the Norks had their little fireworks display (a statement that Roh backed).
Really?
It is well known that Washington is working towards isolating Pyongyang while Seoul is just as active in engaging them. Neither policy has much chance of succeeding as long as the other is being persued. So, in the wake of the missile launches, which policy took two steps back? Let’s see the evidence:
- Russia and China joined the US and Japan in backing UN Resolution 1695, which condemned the missile launches and called for a boycott of missiles technology deals with Pyeongyang.
- China has frozen some North Korean assets. Granted, it was not directly related to the missile tests, but the timing is certainly fortuitous for the US.
- Even Roh felt compelled to temporarily suspend rice shipments to Pyongyang (That link is interesting if for no other reason than you get to see me mildly disagree with both Oranckay and Kushibo.).
I will let you draw you own conclusions.
80 Comments
Great post Andy, thanks — excellent summary of where we are.
But why do we have to choose?
his policy is both isolated AND a failure…
But in endlessly pointing out this about Roh’s NK policy, nobody seems to have gotten very far with developing and proposing the better and coherent alternative for 2007 and beyond, or have they?
South Korea did go through more than 40 years of being fanatically anti-Pyeongyang and anti-Communist, and that was a grand failure too — nothing got better up North, there was no real moves toward the ultimate goal of reunification. The public is simply exhausted with that stance, and isn’t going to go back to it. That’s why we’ve had eight years of “Sunshine” and nearly endless public tolerance for it despite the lack of evident progress beyond a few symbolic acts of reconciliation — they’ve been willing to give appeasement a good long solid try because unwilling to go back to the hard-line position. And despite appeasement’s evident failure, they’re still unwilling to go back.
So the challenge remains, what’s the workable alternative? What’s the policy in the middle between appeasement/friendliness and fanatical opposition/competition, that will bring Washington, Tokyo and Beijing together with Seoul on the same page? I don’t seem to have heard any practical details of it from the GNP…
Has anybody worked up a coherent alternative yet?
Any solution that does come will probably be swift, unforseen and violent. It is merely the waiting that is frustrating, especially the waiting for the current administration in Seoul to end.
Meanwhile I note that the Chinese have plans to build a new 200,000 person capacity bomb shelter for Shanghai — all for their “peaceful rise”.
I would not read too much in the recent “change of attitude” of China towards North Korea. The collapse of the regime is not in the Chinese interests. It has nothing to do with China being “good” or “bad”. It has everything to do with interests. They do not want a chaos near their borders, they do not want one of the few supposedly Communist countries to go belly up, and above all they want a buffer zone near their borders. Ditto Russia, although Russian stakes are far, far smaller. So, Beijing makes gestures, but nothing of substance would happen (unless there is some internal unrest in NK). There is absolutely no reason for China to start pushing North.
Slightly aside, a Russian scholar-official (actually, a mouth pice of Foreign Ministry) recently explained in an intrveiw to a major Russian newspaper that North Korean geography is so unfortunate, so the poor country is bound to have natural disasters every few years. Well, this is what they used to say about Vietnam, now the world’s thrid largest producer of rice…
See the commercial on this page..
http://www.chosun.com/economy/.....6.html#bbs
Koreans are pretty asexual in their thinking.
You have to refresh the page maybe several times for the right commercial to show on the top right side of the page.
“삼성생명이 드리는..”has to show.
Aghh, Asia Times….’Talk about collection of left wing fools.
Lankov:
I would not read too much in the recent “change of attitude” of China towards North Korea. The collapse of the regime is not in the Chinese interests. It has nothing to do with China being “good” or “bad”. It has everything to do with interests. They do not want a chaos near their borders, they do not want one of the few supposedly Communist countries to go belly up, and above all they want a buffer zone near their borders.
——————————————————————
I didn’t know you were a mindreader? That’s why Chinese took over Tibet??
I would imagine freedom would be something that would be abhorent to a corrupt Communist regime like China. God forbid ideas like that would ever spread to a Communist Country. Imagine the thought!
China has frozen some North Korean assets. Granted, it was not directly related to the missile tests, but the timing is certainly fortuitous for the US.
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It’s really funny when China is doing more that Roh’s administration.
I also heard they arrested one of Kim Jung-Il’s flunkies in China when he tried to free some of those assets over there.
I don’t think the Chineses are too happy with the “mentally challenged one”. It’s giving the Japanese right-wingers more of a reason to build up their arms and dream of past glories.
Sanshinseon:
South Korea did go through more than 40 years of being fanatically anti-Pyeongyang and anti-Communist, and that was a grand failure too — nothing got better up North, there was no real moves toward the ultimate goal of reunification. The public is simply exhausted with that stance, and isn’t going to go back to it.
——————————————————————–
Heck, 40 years is nothing compared to Cold War. I believe it took more than 50 years before the Berlin Walls came tumbling down. People today don’t seem to have much patience. If something doesn’t get done in five seconds, let’s try something new. You’re not going to get much done with a policy that simular to a chicken with his head cut of going this way and that.
Vigilance and consistant foreign policy has it’s own reward least you encourage the likes of Kim Jung-Il.
R. Elgin:
Meanwhile I note that the Chinese have plans to build a new 200,000 person capacity bomb shelter for Shanghai — all for their “peaceful rise”.
—————————————————————–
Wwwhhhahhhattt???
Dame Chinese are sneakier than the Japs! I knew they’re up to no good!
Now, just what could they be up to??? First, they build up their Navy and now the shelter? Could it have something to do with Taiwan? Nahhhhhh… I refuse to believe something that obvious.
Lankov,
I would go a step further. China is behind it all - NK nuke and NK missiles. China wants NK to misbehave to the max and be a “prick” to the US, so that China can trade NK problems with Taiwan.
Yes, I think Hu is telling KJI to do these trouble-making. Meanwhile, Hu is negotiating with the US about letting Taiwan go; “If you do not interfere with our invasion of Taiwan, then we will quiet down NK”.
International politics is give-and-take. This is played behind the scenes and only hit the newspaper headline 20 years later. I am pretty sure that China is behind it all and KJI is just a puppet.
baduk, i would have to disagree with you.
how are you going to control someone by giving him a loaded gun and its pointed at your head ? i doubt it very much..
the u.s has to swallow its pride and normalize relations with n.k. otherwise…. no, let’s not go there…
Origami,
I would not exactly call Asia Times’ contributors a “collection of left wing fools.”
In particular, the paper’s primary contributors on its Korea section–Donald Kirk, Dr. Lankov, and Mr. Klingner–are hardly “left wing,” much less “fools.” The same goes for one of its earlier “house” Korea commentator David Scofield, whose writing was consistently excellent and who is much missed these days (where is he now?).
I suppose you could say that Asia Times’ non-Korea contributors have often taken “left wing” and anti-American stances, but I hardly see how that is relevant to Mr. Klingner’s piece.
Sanshinseon:
But why do we have to choose?
his policy is both isolated AND a failure…
—————————————————–
Pretty telling, no? Gave himself away there. Pretty much told me where he was coming from,
Ghola,
What do you mean by “normalizing relations with NK”? If the US kowtow to KJI, then he will stop making nukes and shooting missiles?
Fat chance. SK has been there and done that. No frigging change. None.
KJI is a small puppet. Hu can crush him tomorrow if he wants to. Hu doesn’t do that. Why not? Because KJI licks his ass and does exactly what Hu tells him to do. A very, very obedient dog.
the u.s has to swallow its pride and normalize relations with n.k.
Exactly. One could conceivably argue that Sunshine Policy could have shown fruit if the United States had decided to support the SK reconciliation program and adopted an open-door policy with NK.
Isolating NK isnt going to work without full Chinese cooperation and alignment, which we know isnt going to happen. Besides, actions like that makes NK even more determined to create nukes and long-range missiles. Furthermore, assuming for a moment that China plays along, and that it was possible to fully isolate and sanction NK, all that’s doing is starving the common people and cornering the controlling elite into a position where they have nothing to lose. A Kim Jong Il, in control of a powerful military, who feels like he’s got nothing to lose, is simply not what we want.
Ultimately, NK’s behavior is considerably determined by the United States and not SK.
It’s time to let bygones be bygones, declare peace with NK, and conduct trade. We’ve tried WAR, we’ve exhausted STALEMATE to death, its time for CLOSURE.
Not surprising, this was never posted anywhere:
Updated July.31,2006 21:07 KST
Bush Election ‘Stopped Kim Jong-il Visiting Seoul’
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il told China’s then president Jiang Zemin in September 2001 he hesitated to return a historic visit from South Korean president Kim Dae-jung because he expected little gain from such a trip after George W. Bush became U.S president.
Jiang quotes the remarks in a quasi-autobiography titled “For a Better World: Jiang Zemin’s Overseas Visits.” “I’m weighing whether to make a return visit to South Korea. My visit to the South would show the world that Koreans can settle issues related to the Korean Peninsula by themselves,” it quotes Kim as telling Jiang during a Pyongyang visit. “But the international political atmosphere has changed after the U.S presidential election. It’s difficult to forecast what results my return visit would bring.” The purported remarks came 15 months after Kim Dae-jung visited the Stalinist country.
The book covering Jiang’s trips from 1990-2002 was written by former Chinese diplomats at the direction of the ex-president.
“We’ve tried WAR, we’ve exhausted STALEMATE to death, its time for CLOSURE. ”
- No, we haven’t. We tried talk. Frigging six member, blow-up mouthfest. And, it did not work.
It is time for action. Bunker busters and JDAMs. Tomahawks and tactical nuke bombs(just sanctioned by the Congress).
Some pundits said that Iraq was tough and the war would drag on five to ten years. Frigging lightweights. NKs would run as soon as the first American bomb drops. The US marines would capture KJI from his frigging underground hole and bring him to justice. NKs and SKs who lost their relatives to this Kim dynasty will tear off his flesh with bear hands while chanting “Great Leader, the Evil Dog, must die!”
Well, if nothing else, this guy doesnt have to worry about losing his unusual side gig anytime soon.
Total-apologist-bullsh*t. Kim Jong-il is responsible for Kim Jong-il’s behavior.
I think bluehives is right. The isolationist treatment has not worked with Cuba and it certainly is not working with North Korea. A non-confrontational U.S. stance might just force Koreas north and south alike to alter their hypocritical and juvenile behavior.
Mr. Jackson, I wouldn’t say the U.S. is trying to isolate N.K. exactly–the norks already do that very well on their own. The U.S. sanctions are obviously working, judging by the squealing from Pyongyang, and more of the same would drive N.K. back to the six-way negotiations.
There’s no point in the U.S. trying to “normalize” relations with a regime that’s not normal. Offer amnesty to the leadership and hope for a controlled collapse of the regime as Mr. Lankov has suggested:
http://www.iht.com/articles/20.....v_ed3_.php
Dogbertt,
Thanks for mining that op-ed; I remember reading it when it came out and downloaded it, but it was lost when my hard drive vaporized.
Dr. Lankov’s stuff is consistently good; he’s one of the few foreign pundits writing about Korea whom I read with care.
bluejives (#17)
That is one of the weaker excuses I have seen in a while. That or Kim actually believes his own propaganda that the whole Seoul government (including Roh) is a flunky of the US.
Actually, I think I can see a point of compromise between Bluejives and Lankov (link in comment #22).
We should normalize relations with Kim Jeong-il and his boys when they have accepted exile. It will be a normal relationship with a former dictator and his cronies.
The only question is, where should KJI and the boys go?
I think that question deserves its own post.
Andy,
Isn’t Beijing or somewhere in China pretty much the only conceivable destination?
Come on. There’s only one foreign country that anti-American Koreans will consider settling in, and that’s the USA. Just ask Im Su-Gyeong.
Oh boy oh boy oh boy. I cant wait until Korea is unfied, 75 million crybabies with a victim mentality.
What we are seeing now from the two hermit kingdoms will pale in comparison.
Montclaire,
I listen to Korean radio a lot in New York, and you would be surprised at the number of Korean-Americans who are originally from North Korea, have suffered immeasurably at the hands of the Kim “boo-ja,” and still harbor murderous hatred toward KJI and his poppy. I wouldn’t think KJI would feel safe in their midst.
In fact, a local Korean radio program had Kim Myung-chul (sp.?)–the Japan-based KJI apologist and supposedly his unofficial spokesmen outside NK–as a guest on a panel about the NK missile launches. The moderator could barely get the show moving because of the angry calls he received questioning his motive and integrity in having Kim as a guest.
> Origami from United States
> Heck, 40 years is nothing compared to Cold War. I believe
> it took more than 50 years before the Berlin Walls came
> tumbling down.
Not quite sure where you’re pulling your information and
opinions out of, but as far as i know most people believe
there was only one Berlin Wall, built in August 1961 and
dismantled in November 1989. That’s 28.25 years by my count.
> People today don’t seem to have much patience. If something
> doesn’t get done in five seconds, let’s try something new.
I would say that there is a bit of difference between 40 years
and five seconds… But anyway, you are apparently attempting to make a point that many observers have made regarding hard-line anti-Communism, Seoul’s Sunshine Policy, the Great Society welfare policies for poor American blacks and Dick Cheney’s mad imperial adventure in Iraq — that the public should have more patience with these policies that are evident failures, just give it more time with full support and it eventually will work.
Sometimes this seems more true, and sometimes less, but it’s always unprovable. It often seems like staying at the blackjack tables in Vegas when you’re on a losing streak, sure that if you just keep doing it the same way, you’ve just GOT to win in the end.
Reality is that public opinion IS impatient; and particularly in democracies, governments must pay heed to public opinion. That’s just the way it is, ain’t gonna change. Policies have to show some positive results, some indication that they’re working, within a reasonable time or the public’s going to turn against those policies and the politicians who support them. Those who design policies had better keep that in mind — think “is this going to start working before the public loses its patience…?”
Sanshin-san:
I believe Cold War was between 1947-1991, which all the Commie loving Liberals poopoo’ed , and which Berlin Wall was a iconic symbol of; and, therefore, I would count as part of Cold War, not necessarily when it went up:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_wall
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ColdWar
Look, all I’m trying to say is that you need to have a tough foreign policy and stick with it. Unlike some people on this site who believe in Appeasement:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeasement
Like I said, I’ll never understand a Liberal mindset that believes being nice to a Dictator has ever work. You said yourself:
“But why do we have to choose?
his policy is both isolated AND a failure…”*
Anyway, this Kim Jung-Il crap is driving me insane, but, there’s no shortage of his fans on this website.
————————————————————-
*Abject failure like “Sunshine Policy,” which Bluejives still believes in in his dellusional state of mind. (Don’t ask me how.)
Ah. So militarily supplying and financially supporting dictators like the Shah of Iran, Saddam Hussein and Manuel Noriega (not to mention others) was all done by liberals? And the Bush family has nothing to do with the Saud family, since to do things like invite them to barbeques might be seen as being nice to dictators.
I suppose I could accuse conservatives of being the ones who really have a penchant for buddying up to blood-drenched dictators, but I’m not in the mood to make brainless, overly-hasty generalizations.
Perhaps we need to re-package Kirkipatrick’s distinction between totalitarian regimes and authoritarian regimes.
For cultural diversification of liberals,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bmT60TgjM0&NR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-KnFadDGgo
The fundamental basis of my opinions regarding NK:
I believe that the Norks realize fully well on their own that their system is a proven failure. They want to embark on Chinese-style economic reforms, join the world economy, and be prosperous too.
I reject Universalism and what Francis Fukuyama asserts in his post-Cold War thesis “The End of History”. Real world application of this thinking has made the world a far more dangerous place.
KJI is an evil dictator but if the twist and fate of history happened such that NK was convenient to American interests, America WOULD tolerate KJI. Former mortal enemies of the US, such a Moammar Quaddifi of Libya and Vietnam during the 1960s, are no longer considered as such at the present. There is no reason why NK-US enmity cannot be allowed to similarly slide into history’s dustbin.
Bush is a fucking idiot, plain and simple. Period.
KJI is an evil dictator
there’s no problem with that statement. it’s a fact.
my question to you is; has there ever been an “saintly” dictator. doesn’t being a dictator dictate that you become “evil”. ?
i’m just trying to be facetious.
Bush is a fucking idiot, plain and simple. Period
WOULD tolerate KJI…… he “is” being tolerated.
There is no reason why NK-US enmity cannot be allowed to similarly slide into history’s dustbin.
korea and u.s has had an ominous start from the get go.
sherman incident was it ? tipping the balance of power in the japanese favor to do their dirty work for them in the far east asia.. ( which is the same plan they and the number of countries used since the days when..) blah blah blah…n.k even s.k is inconsequential… as long as they have japan… they will have more than a foothold it needs to maintain status quo…..blah blah blah
Bush is a fucking idiot, plain and simple. Period
you may not like bush. you may even hate him. you may disagree with his policies.. you may downright oppose anything and everything he does and says… but let’s put things in perspective here.. the mans the president of the good ol u.s of a. i’m not saying that you don’t have the rights to your opinions..especially, since, you’re from the “bronx” homeboy. but the man’s no fucking idiot.
> bluejives
> the Norks … want to embark on Chinese-style economic
> reforms, join the world economy, and be prosperous too.
If so, Lawd, what’s stopping them…?
That what EVERYbody wants them to do,
they’d get loads of help from all over…
I don’t think that the regime wants that at all, out of fear
that econ-change would naturally lead to political change
(tho it hasn’t in China — yet); it has resisted many
urgings to do it, declined many offers of help.
Lankov noted that the existance of a large capitalist South Korea prevents the North from going too much in that direction (see link in comment # 22)
N.K. obviously wants to generate income within its borders through isolated and highly controlled “zones” like Sinuiju and Kaesong, and just as obviously for the benefit of the ruling elite and not the general populace. It has no intention of enriching its people since this will lead to political strife, as it has in China, and the norks are far more paranoid about losing power than the Chinese.
bluejives,
You’re a fucking idiot for asking Bush and America to make the same mistakes Clinton had already made.
He talked KJI. He believed KJI. He tolerated KJI.
Fucking KJI is threatening entire nation with nuke weapons he had developed because of Clinton’s peaceful approach.
A person or a country is stupid when he/she/it cannot learn from previous mistakes and repeats them again.
Maybe, you, bluejives, may do that but most people are smarter than you.
Time to bomb NK asshos!
Is it just me or does it seem like most of the war-mongers live somewhere outside of the Korean peninsula, and therefore, out of harm’s way if shit hit the fan?
BJ, Michael is more than likely closer to the truth of it all and he resides in (sniff) France.
(Buy French wine and make at least some people happy too.)
Sacre bleu! R.Elgin, my proxy server resides in France, and I’m probably only a kilometer or two away from you right now, as the scud flies that is.
N.K. obviously wants to generate income within its borders through isolated and highly controlled “zones” like Sinuiju and Kaesong, and just as obviously for the benefit of the ruling elite and not the general populace…
Which breeds resentment against the elite amongst the general populace.
Richardson Says:
“Ultimately, NK’s behavior is considerably determined by the United States and not SK.”
Total-apologist-bullsh*t. Kim Jong-il is responsible for Kim Jong-il’s behavior.
North Korea’s demise has become an amusement park ride in which Americans can assert their superiority. Nevermind the fact that from the Korean War until the mid 80’s, North Korea was actually MORE prosperous than the South. Never mind the fact that North Korea possessed one of the most advanced agricultures in the world, acheiving 100% food self-sufficiency by the mid 80’s and double cropping rice in a climatic region where most people have trouble harvesting a single crop of rice.
There is no mention of North Korea’s historical success, only the celebration of its current failure. Americans pretend like they feel sorry for the “starving orphans” they see pictures of, but inside, they are overjoyed because “they won!” The fact of the matter is that the US has engaged in the longest illegal embargo in modern history against North Korea (continuous since 1950). They have also bent over backwards to stifle any North Korean attempts ot modernize their economy, included blocking NK attempts to join the Asian Development Bank and the IMF. The US played a HUGE role in orchestrating the economic collapse of NK -it is not simply a case of “communism doesn’t work.”
Of course, NK isn’t completely blameless when it comes to their own economic woes (bad investments in the 70’s, the OPEC crisis, a reliance on a mechanized agriculture with an inability to operate and maintain aging machinery, military overspending, etc.). However, you CANNOT take NK’s failure into account without looking at America’s role in it.
I would say that the US is largely responsible for NK’s current condition. They have been pushing for an economic collapse ever since 1950, and during the 90’s they pushed especially hard. Of course, NK has it’s share of responsibility, in addition to inexplicable “acts of God” (years of drought followed by years of flooding.)
Furthermore, NK military spending is also prompted by aggressive posturing from both the US and South Korea. Every year, joint US and South Korean military forces initiate the first stages of a full scale invasion and assualt on North Korea. North Korea has to be prepared to deal with such aggression in terms of both personnel and facilities.
Before, NK didn’t have to choose between regime survival or food. Now, natural disasters, their own bad decisions, and the US have put them in a situation where they have to choose either bullets or food. I don’t think that the US is in any position to criticize such as choice when they helped orchestrate that situation to begin with.
Bluejives has drunk the cool aid and labors under myriad gross errors of fact, sequence and causality. But this is the very same feelings-over-facts nativist Korean view that animates the Blue House, KCTU, Uri central, so the U.S. needs to learn to deal with it — at least until adults take over in Seoul.
“They want to embark on Chinese-style economic reforms, join the world economy, and be prosperous too.”
A total dream fantasy. Any moves in this direction will result in collapse of KJI’s regime and him swinging from a lamppost. The control has just been too tight, the North is just too far gone.
“There is no mention of North Korea’s historical success,”
Yes, all those wonderful successes of communism. That’s America’s problem, always ignoring the wonders of communism.
Once the Soviet Union fell apart and stopped propping up the North with cheap fuel and such, the North’s economy took a nose dive. And why should international institutions give loans and support to the North? They’ve reneged on their previous commitments. Doesn’t sound like a trustworthy outfit to me. And the blame lies with the North Korean leadership, not with America.
America’s sanctions of the past 10 years have had very little effect on NK, as NK has not had the economic strength to even meet their minimal quotas for products to Europe and other places. It isn’t the US sanctions that are hurting, it’s KJI’s regime that is so f***ed up that they can’t even get the basics together. This is a success story?
“-it is not simply a case of “communism doesn’t work.”
Well, unfortunately, there are many examples throughout history that prove that COMMUNISM DOESN’T WORK (certainly not economically), so trying to pin the blame on the US is a load of crap. (I hope you’re not one of those who say that communism hasn’t been successful because it hasn’t really been tried.) The few remaining communist regimes that are still around (besides Cuba, a shining example of the stunning ’success’ of Marxist economics) are ones that have adopted capitalism to survive (re: China, Vietnam).
The only kind of economy that works worse than a communist one? A xenophobic communist one.
Beating up North Korea apologists probably isn’t a fair fight, but oh well. . .
Really? Well that’s very surprising since they haven’t taken any tenable actions to move in such a direction, and in fact have prevented such reforms. The number on indication that they (and by ‘they’ I mean the leadership, not the people) would like to go in such a direction would have been to adhere to the 1994 Agreed Framework and deal honestly with Japan on the abduction issues, which would have delivered them myriad of benefits; a) LWR, b) US$10 billion+ in reparations from Japan, c) and all the other accruements that go with diplomatic relations as a third world nation. Aid and investment from all over the world would have poured in. But the truth is that North Korea is disengaging on purpose.
Anticipating your argument that the U.S. tanked the agreement; bullsh*t; I’ll direct you to articles III and IV of that agreement (PDF): “III. Both sides will work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula,” and “IV. Both sides will work together to strengthen the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.” All through the 90s North Korea broke both of those (sea skirmishes, subs in ROK territory, etc.), the kicker being their illegal uranium enrichment. North Korea wanted the deal as long as they could collect the benefits and still have nukes; it became completely unattractive when Bush (rightly) didn’t look the other way.
The ‘market reforms’ of the summer of 2002 (reform of the food production system, moves away from rationing for both food and consumer goods, and the introduction of both rent and fee-for-service utilities) were more a reflection of the fact that their system was simply disintegrating around them, not ‘progressive’ action. All but the housing reforms have been rolled back – why would they do that if they were moving in the direction you claim? (hint: cuz you’re wrong).
And don’t try to point to SEZs; if they wanted those to work, they would have adapted the laws and norms that China has for such ventures. North Koreans can reproduce missiles and come up with legalistic agreements in English, and they damn sure would know what to do if they really wanted such economic reform. No, what they would like instead are small, isolated cities (i.e., actually walled off from normal citizens) where slave labor would (and do at Kaesong) bring in hard currency for the regime.
Yes, up until a bit before the time both the Soviet Union and China both cut off the massive aid they had been giving North Korea (actually the decline began in the 70s). And don’t discount how productive a society can seem to be when all the workers are property of the government! But only for awhile, and only with massive support – once capitalism is in place it leaves socialist societies in the dust. Any claim that North Korea was 100 percent self-sufficient in anything is dubious given the amount of help it had, and the nature of claims it makes about itself (lies).
You live in America, but you still don’t know what it means to be an American, and you obviously do not understand the country either – we do not ‘celebrate’ and are not ‘overjoyed’ by the fact that the North Korean regime has starved a good portion of its people to death.
An ‘illegal embargo’? Really? Cite a (credible) source of law on that specific topic. I say credible as your opinion is neither law nor credible.
Up until the last couple of years, the U.S., followed by Japan then South Korea, was the single largest donor of aid to North Korea.
Chew on that for awhile.
The first sentence above is correct up to the word ‘modernize,’ after which it would be accurate to insert, ‘obtain and proliferate WMD, and to engage in other international criminal activities.’ You’re welcome.
Yes, the U.S. doing an ok job in bringing down North Korea – but not good enough.
North Korea began an immediate decline after communist bloc aid dried up in the late 80s, and perhaps sooner. (You can’t cite any credible data at any rate as a) the DPRK has not released any data since the late 70s, and b) the source would, you know, be North Korea.) This decline, combined with massive mismanagement of both industry and agriculture was the actual cause of the famine – natural catastrophes only exacerbated what was already going to happen. For example, deforestation (due at least partly to average citizens taking wood for heat the government could not provide), led to flooding, which in turn wiped out crops (see, there is a cause/effect thing going on there you should be paying attention to). Chronic resource misallocation – for decades – is the other side of that coin.
I would say your assertion is groundless; North Korea is reaping exactly what is has sowed, which is not much of anything good or useful, and that’s the problem.
The ‘acts of God’ you cite are a myth – see the mismanagement and resource misallocation referred to above. People were already hungry/dying when that began. If A happened before B, B did not cause A.
Almost all North Korea has to do to have a credible deterrent is to maintain its thousands of artillery pieces in hardened bunkers above Seoul. Nuclear weapons were never required – or even a million+ man army.
Until you stop blaming the weather and the U.S. for the consequences of what North Korean leadership has done, you will never be able to understand what is happening with North Korea, or in the region. You seem to be either unaware or ignoring information that is contrary to your view, which seems to be almost entirely in line with North Korean propaganda.
COMMUNISM DOESN”T WORK!
Fucking Commie leaders take all the profit. Animal farm.
Recent reports say the 90% of the rich in China have connection with the party leaders. In other words, they are members of family, close friends and college pals.
Does it surprise you? Kill fucking Commies. They are the new aristocrates. Time for a new French Revolution - in China and in Russia.
Much about North Korea’s vaunted economic superiority over the South has been shown to be a myth, with the opening of Soviet archives and withthe great access we have to North Korean defectors. Anecdotally, I recall being told by Soviet experts in Vladivostok in 1990 that North Korean manufactured goods (tractors, machinery, etc) that were shipped to the Soviet Union in barter arrangements was immediately crushed for scrap after it was allowed a face-saving transit across the DPRK-USSR border. Also, my several trips to the DPRK and encounters with refugees revealed that not only children are undersized, but that people well into their 40s are small, indicating that malnutrition began much earlier than was acknowledged.
I’ve been out of the loop a bit lately but have followed this post with interest. Comment No.50 is about as good as I’ve seen on North Korea on a blog in a while. I’d really like to see Richardson develop that last sentence about ignorance relative to Nork propaganda a little bit more to follow up on how the Nork-apologists have evolved since the Shoeshine policy began.
“Shoeshine policy”?! LOL, good stuff.
I agree that Richardson’s post was thorough and annihilating–though it was a bit of a case of using an MX missile on a vermin.
Yeah, ‘Shoeshine’ is good, but I prefer ‘Moonshine Policy.’
What I meant about, “ignorance relative to Nork propaganda” is that he used examples like North Korea’s “North Korea’s historical succes,” blames everything on the U.S., the weather, etc., but omits the rest of the story, like Soviet/Chinese aid, and the chronic mismanagement/poor choices, and complete failure that communism is, etc. With the exception of his denunciation of Kim Jong-il, the rest could have been paraphrased from the KCNA.
As for the question of, “how the Nork-apologists have evolved since the Shoeshine policy,” that would be a long post. If USinKorea sees this, he’s welcome to jump it, since that’s close to his focus area of anti-Americanism.
i just love my new gravatar..
Bluejives,
Just a footnote to Richardson’s fine post. Picked up a book published in 1940 called “Monsoonal Rice Agriculture”, of interest only to agricultural economists. This is from memory, so the title may differ slightly. Anyway, they ran a table of rice production per hectare in Asia and what surprised me was the Japan was #1 in production per hectare, and Korea was #2. French Indochina was #5. This was in the days of that oppressive Japanese rule, so perhaps Japanese agricultural techniques had something to do with this. So, North Korea’s rice production should have been decent if the farmers had any incentive to produce.
Also, would it surprise you to discover that the “USS” General Sherman was a merchant ship (i.e., M/V Gral. Sherman) crewed by 19 Chinese and Malays with only 2 US and 1 UK citizen on board, and not a U.S. (i.e., USS) naval vessel as alleged? Even Kimsoft has that point covered.
bj, what a beating… but don’t feel too bad. i don’t think there’s anyone on this earth that can reasonably defend kji and dprk. especially against the majority of visitors on this site. can you imagine, if ordinary, average people feel and think this passionately about dprk, how those neo-con inner sanctum of u.s gov’t must.. think of dprk. ?
* Also, would it surprise you to discover that the “USS” General Sherman was a merchant ship (i.e., M/V Gral. Sherman) crewed by 19 Chinese and Malays with only 2 US and 1 UK citizen on board, and not a U.S. (i.e., USS) naval vessel as alleged? Even Kimsoft has that point covered. *
I think the key element in the above mentioned paragraph is “who” died, not how many… maybe i’m wrong, the way i understand it, it was a relative of an american gov’t official that died from the sherman incident that spurned on the u.s gov’t into contemplating invading korea. which they settled for some relative first hand revenge and turned over the rest of the dirty work to the japanese..
if there is any way possible for kji to salvage his …legacy
let him fire all of his missiles into japan. he’ll be my hero.
kji will be the greatest hero korea has ever produced.
if a man kills another man, it’s murder. if caught and convicted..you pay with your life.. in most countries.
if a group of man gets together and kills another group of man, it’s something else. and if you have a large enough group of man and are strong enough.. you may kill any group of man, no matter how large their population is… and be justified…
especially in dubya’s book, it’s ok to kill innocent women and children.. as long as they are not your own..
in most countries, if not all, conquistadors are respected and admired. ( except when it’s ghengis, he’s a brutal savage, an animal ) in my humble opinion, all this lack of respect “us koreans” receive in the inter-commun is due to the fact that we never went outside of our borders and went to war for “honor and glory” ( rape and plunder )
the moder age is only a blink of an eye cpmpared to the vastness in history of man, earth, universe. do not be cowed by couple of hundred years of bad times… let’s make god proud.
kji can start by launching a missile to the favorite shrine of koizumi. when he’s there.
i kid you not. i was in a really good mood, playing in an on-line texas hold’em tournament… played in this tourney for $2 entry fee.. the catch is, only 1st place wins money. and i came in second.. not a fucken dime.
moral of my story… winning is everything.
Hormones…
thats the last thing kji is gonna do.. all this bullshit will never end until he dies.. we should all just kick it and wait till the bitch croaks.
Well, you win first in the category of “furthest from the truth” with that one.
The reason Korea doesn’t get respect in the “international community” is because its values and mores are so far from the main. Korea’s long isolation allowed things to develop without reference to any standard but the Korean — I’ve previously described this place as Galapagos Island, where the adaptations the native flora and fauna make to the environment make them freakishly out of place elsewhere. A given turtle or bird can be a perfect Galapagosian and not be a success outside Galapagos. So long as it doesn’t crave acclaim as the “best turtle or bird in the world” there’s no problem.
“we never went outside of our borders and went to war” Yeah, too busy for about 700 years killing each other during the Three Kingdoms period to get off the peninsula and grab that glory. Whatever.
Considering that South Korea is an actual country today (rather than a province of China) shows that somewhere, at some point, some forefather of the current South Korean nation must have gone ‘outside the borders’ to conquer his neighbor’s lands. Heck, looking at Korean history, prior to Shilla coming along and beating the crap out of everyone else on the peninsula, the borders in the area of mainland northeast Asia were pretty fluid, weren’t they?
Zonath,
Shilla hardly “[beat] the crap out of everyone else on the peninsula.” The conquest of Koguryo was almost an entirely Tang affair, and Silla only contributed serious manpower in the last of many Tang invasions. Tang also did the greatter part of the work in the conquest of Paekchae, as a far greater number of Paekchae forces went out to meet the Tang half of the Na-Tang alliance forces than Kim Yu-sin’s Silla forces. Simply put, Shilla gets nowhere without the Tang, as Koguryo was incomparably stronger than Shilla and Paekchae arguably stronger as well (in the decades prior to the Na-Tang alliance, Shilla had been on the defensive against King Mu and his son King Uija).
Koreans also misrepresent the character of the supposed Shilla ejection of the Tang from the peninsula by force of arms. The Tang left and retrenched largely voluntarily, as it likely had no designs on Shilla and more importantly, the Western front was becoming hot with the Tibetan aggression.
The reason Korea doesn’t get respect in the “international community” is because its values and mores are so far from the main. Korea’s long isolation allowed things to develop without reference to any standard but the Korean — I’ve previously described this place as Galapagos Island, where the adaptations the native flora and fauna make to the environment make them freakishly out of place elsewhere. A given turtle or bird can be a perfect Galapagosian and not be a success outside Galapagos. So long as it doesn’t crave acclaim as the “best turtle or bird in the world” there’s no problem.
Look, Brendan Carr, if you want to say that Koreans are a bunch of inbreed, homogenized mongoloids just say it plainly rather than disguise it under some false-intellectual pretense.
But can you actually argue with what he said?
But can you actually argue with what he said?
My understanding is that White expats from America usually make very poor minorities. Especially when they were used to being the majority back home. Especially when they find themselves a minority in country whose people they subconsciously consider “beneath them”, in certain ways.
korea and rest of the world is kind of like oil and water. no matter how much you try… it just won’t mix.
**Korea’s long isolation allowed things to develop without reference to any standard but the Korean **
that’s over-stretching a bit, don’t you think ? Korea, china and japan has had a decent amount exchanges in culture, social, politics etc for a very long time.. 2k 3k years ?
You yourself, being an attorney ( I think ) must have had experiences ( practicing in korea on behalf of u.s clients..i’m not sure, i’m just guessing.) where you may have thought the country to lack basic civility.. you being used to a legal system thats had the foundation from since the days of Moses.. ..( I personally am of the opinion that the u.s constitution and its legal system is the single most greatest achievement in human history ..though it didn’t happen overnight, still.)
I think most koreans believe that murder is bad.. it was the first commandment from god to moses.. no ? ” thou shalt not kill ” .. what’s next.. “thou shalt not commit adultry”.. I think korea has one of the toughest laws against adultry. No ?
what else ? ” thou shalt honor thy mother and father” I think most koreans honor their parents. perhaps even more so than others.. i don’t have any stats.. but i think it’s a safe bet.
there’s seven more, i know since its called the ten commandments..
but let’s leave it at that.. I think that what you’re referring to is some business practices practiced by certain people in korea against some foreign entities and you find them to be of “bad taste” to say the least. but were it not for those people of “bad taste” those foreign co. wouldn’t need your services.. so, perhaps you should send them a thank you note and cheer on the good work and hope they send more work your way.. which means mo’ money for your stupid ass.
I can’t remember when.. but i’m pretty sure that it was you who commented. and I quote.. ” even if 99% of all koreans are honest, that still leaves 500k lying/cheating/crooks in korea”
was it not you ? i apologize if it weren’t you.. now that’s a very distasteful remark.. in turn i replied ” even if 99% of all americans are smart, it still leaves 3 million idiots like brendon carr…. you snide jackass..” or something to that effect i’m not sure…
it may be immature to be claiming to be the best and saying out loud we are the best and all of that and it can rub some people the wrong way.. it definitely rubs most koreans the wrong way.. some of them are the most humble people i know.. caring, loving..sacrificing their entire life so that their off-springs would have a better future.. a decent future.. but, i can’t say that it’s a bad thing in wanting to be the best.. in being the best.. actually, most, if not all champion atheletes have this mentality…tiger woods, roger clemens, joe namath, michael jordan… maybe it’s not having that kind of mentality that’s putting gmac and ford in its place.. who knows ?
ever since homo-sapiens scurried out of the big motherland..how long ago was that ? and landed in korea….we have evolved into who we are.. and if you don’t like us… fuck-off.
The answer then is, “no.”
Who said that? My position is that Korea doesn’t know or follow the “rules of the game”, but is bothered at not being acclaimed as the best player. The only problem comes from wanting to be in the game without actually joining a team or understanding the rules.
As to whether I or any other white man (presumably blacks can get a pass from you, due to their sharing with you the experience of white oppression) subconsciously — how do you read my mind, anyway? — consider Korea “beneath me”, who cares even if that’s true? Why is my opinion of Korea so important? The country will still be itself whether or not white people praise it.
Also, Mr. Bluejives, do me the courtesy of spelling my first name correctly. It’s conveniently right in front of you, so all you really have to do is copy.
Ghola and I are oddly almost in complete agreement: U.S. Constitution and English Common Law as greatest achievement in human history, check. Odd Korean customs as complete lack of manners and civility from Western perspective, check. Inability to resist fraudulous shenanigans as income-generating benefit to foreign lawyer, check. Random white guys’ opinions as largely irrelevant to larger question of national identity, check.
Anyway, advice to “Korea” is this: Don’t beg for my opinion as the benchmark of your self-esteem, since the risk of unwanted perspective is so high.
Pot-kettle-bluejives
Mr Brendon Carr, I sympathize with the various problems that expats endure in Korea. But I do not empathize.
Do you suppose that whenever a minority sets foot in a foreign country, that the native majority of that country is automatically inclined by default to be totally accomodating to the minority? Hell no.
Korea is no exception, we all know that by now.
But what is the expat population doing about it? Organizing unions to combat corruption in the hagwons? Fight for equal rights?
Doesnt sound like it. It seems like most expats consider Korea to be a temporary stay. Korea is not their permanent home in which their long term interests are at stake. They also make no effort to assimilate. Hence they are expats and not immigrants.
Well OK then. Expats will stay in Korea and bitch up a storm but they leave eventually and nothing changes and the next group of expats come and bitch up a storm and the cycle repeats itself.
This is why I have no respect for First World expats. You live in other people’s countries but you expect to be treated the same without paying a “immigrant’s due”.
Bluejives, thanks for getting the spelling right. It’s a sore point with me because my “variant” is the correct one. As for your point about us “immigrants” to Korea ought to have the cup of STFU I keep prescribing, well, you might have a point. If we were immigrants. But whereas you get to be an immigrant in the United States, none of us really get to be immigrants to Korea — we’re always and forever going to be foreigners. Even if we’re citizens, the attitude is “Wow, XX foreigners hold Korean citizenship!” (I do not, and would not, however, hold Korean citizenship. I’d gladly be a permanent resident, but let’s face it — I like country music, RC Cola and Moon Pies in the summer, and am even starting to like NASCAR.)
Ah, so that makes everything ok. Thanks for the insightful argument.
That may be true (to be honest, I haven’t delved too deply into the history of the Shilla ‘unification’), but it still tends to dispel the notion that South Korea (and its precursor states) has been throughout its history some sort of peacenik commune, and so isn’t accorded much international respect as a result.
“This is why I have no respect for First World expats.”
Do you have respect for ANYONE outside your tight, ethnically defined circle, Bluejives? You come across as less a person with a large chip on his shoulder than a celestial-sized CHIP with a person attached to it by his shoulder.
“My understanding is that White expats from America usually make very poor minorities.”
Yes, us white expats are the scum of the earth. We come here and work, pay taxes, spend money in the local economy, help meet the extreme demand for learning English, like the local women (hey, what if we hated the local women-wouldn’t that be an insult?) and some of us even attempt to assimilate, though it is certainly not easy (impossible?). Oh, and some of us whine alot.
Or would you prefer it that we collected welfare, joined gangs, committed armed violent crime, raped local women and refused to assimilate, meanwhile not complaining publically about the place?
On behalf of all the Americans who taunted you in grade school, bluejives, I apologize.
Everything OK now?