Comments on: By-election winners and losers http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/ Korea... in Blog Format Fri, 16 May 2008 02:45:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Won Joon Choe http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44762 Won Joon Choe Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:45:32 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44762 On response #6, I meant: "In Korean politics, it is the personalities, not parties..." On response #6, I meant: “In Korean politics, it is the personalities, not parties…”

]]> By: Won Joon Choe http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44761 Won Joon Choe Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:42:59 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44761 I know I sound like a broken record, but you really have to look at Korean politics in its cultural and historic context, rather than over-reacting to every surface change--however kaleidescopic they appear. A year or so ago, I warned in several op-eds against assuming that the South Korean body politic has lurched irreversibly Left; in fact, I even argued that the so-called "386 generation" was a journalistic fiction. Now that people are over-reacting the other way, I have to insist that it is ridiculously premature to assume that the Left is finished and that the GNP will win the Blue House in a walk. I know I sound like a broken record, but you really have to look at Korean politics in its cultural and historic context, rather than over-reacting to every surface change–however kaleidescopic they appear. A year or so ago, I warned in several op-eds against assuming that the South Korean body politic has lurched irreversibly Left; in fact, I even argued that the so-called “386 generation” was a journalistic fiction. Now that people are over-reacting the other way, I have to insist that it is ridiculously premature to assume that the Left is finished and that the GNP will win the Blue House in a walk.

]]> By: Won Joon Choe http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44759 Won Joon Choe Sat, 29 Jul 2006 14:37:58 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44759 Origami, The fact that the ruling party is on the run doesn't mean that it is likely to lose in 2007. In three out of the last four presidential elections, the candidate who trailed the polls for almost throughout the campaign season won because the favored party ultimately fragmented and/or the presence of a third candidate who changed the voting equation. In 1987 Roh Tae-woo won essentially because the opposition party splintered along DJ and YS; in 1997 DJ won because the ruling party fragmented along Lee Hoi-chang and Rhee In-je; and in 2002 Roh Moo-hyun won because of the presence of an alternative opposition candidate who later joined him against the overwhelming favorite Lee Hoi-chang. In Korean parties, it is personalities, not parties, that are the prime movers of presidential politics. If either Park Gun-hye or Lee Myung-bak leave the GNP (as they likely will) upon not being elected the GNP candidate then the Blue House is up for grabs, even if the Uri continues to become unpopular. Origami,

The fact that the ruling party is on the run doesn’t mean that it is likely to lose in 2007. In three out of the last four presidential elections, the candidate who trailed the polls for almost throughout the campaign season won because the favored party ultimately fragmented and/or the presence of a third candidate who changed the voting equation. In 1987 Roh Tae-woo won essentially because the opposition party splintered along DJ and YS; in 1997 DJ won because the ruling party fragmented along Lee Hoi-chang and Rhee In-je; and in 2002 Roh Moo-hyun won because of the presence of an alternative opposition candidate who later joined him against the overwhelming favorite Lee Hoi-chang. In Korean parties, it is personalities, not parties, that are the prime movers of presidential politics. If either Park Gun-hye or Lee Myung-bak leave the GNP (as they likely will) upon not being elected the GNP candidate then the Blue House is up for grabs, even if the Uri continues to become unpopular.

]]> By: Origami http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44757 Origami Sat, 29 Jul 2006 13:35:25 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44757 -------------------------------------------------------------------- The GNP won the three other seats. In Songpa-gap, GNP candidate Maeng Hyung-kyu beat the Uri Party’s Jong Gi-young. In Sosa, the GNP’s Cha Myeong-jin trounced Uri’s Kim Man-soo, a former presidential spokesman. Lee Joo-young was far ahead of Uri Party candidate Kim Sung-jin in Masan-gap. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Did they win these seats or are they holding onto it? Well, It does look like GNP will win the coming Presidential Elections, and, I am glad people are coming back to some semblance of sanity. ——————————————————————–
The GNP won the three other seats. In Songpa-gap, GNP candidate Maeng Hyung-kyu beat the Uri Party’s Jong Gi-young. In Sosa, the GNP’s Cha Myeong-jin trounced Uri’s Kim Man-soo, a former presidential spokesman. Lee Joo-young was far ahead of Uri Party candidate Kim Sung-jin in Masan-gap.

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Did they win these seats or are they holding onto it?

Well, It does look like GNP will win the coming Presidential Elections, and, I am glad people are coming back to some semblance of sanity.

]]> By: Origami http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44755 Origami Sat, 29 Jul 2006 12:49:57 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44755 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Chough’s election is expected to send shockwaves across the ruling party, since he played a leading role in the impeachment of President Roh moo-hyun in March 2004 and has said his victory in the by-election would mean the presidential impeachment was right. ------------------------------------------------------------------- I would imagine this would be more humiliating than losing to GNP? I guess he won because he led the impeachment, otherwise, it would have been GNP, I'm sure of it. It's obvious that S.Koreans are embarrassed by Roh's Anti-American, suicidal tendency. Even Liberals aren't that stupid over there. These voters are restoring my faith in Korean's sanity. I heard young Koreans are becoming more conservative these days, which is good. ——————————————————————-
Chough’s election is expected to send shockwaves across the ruling party, since he played a leading role in the impeachment of President Roh moo-hyun in March 2004 and has said his victory in the by-election would mean the presidential impeachment was right.

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I would imagine this would be more humiliating than losing to GNP?

I guess he won because he led the impeachment, otherwise, it would have been GNP, I’m sure of it. It’s obvious that S.Koreans are embarrassed by Roh’s Anti-American, suicidal tendency. Even Liberals aren’t that stupid over there.

These voters are restoring my faith in Korean’s sanity. I heard young Koreans are becoming more conservative these days, which is good.

]]> By: Won Joon Choe http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44686 Won Joon Choe Fri, 28 Jul 2006 21:01:01 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44686 Andy, I think it's optimistic to assume that there will be a single GNP candidate. Andy,

I think it’s optimistic to assume that there will be a single GNP candidate.

]]> By: Andy Jackson http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44566 Andy Jackson Thu, 27 Jul 2006 14:23:11 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44566 I had speculated in a previous post that Goh Geun's (spelling?) Plan A was to run as a fusion candidate for the Democrats and the new Citizen's Centered Party but the later tanked in the local elections. The Democrats and Uri will have to back the same guy next year or the GNP candidate will take the presidency in a walk. I had speculated in a previous post that Goh Geun’s (spelling?) Plan A was to run as a fusion candidate for the Democrats and the new Citizen’s Centered Party but the later tanked in the local elections.

The Democrats and Uri will have to back the same guy next year or the GNP candidate will take the presidency in a walk.

]]> By: Juggertha http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44559 Juggertha Thu, 27 Jul 2006 13:18:52 +0000 http://www.rjkoehler.com/2006/07/27/by-election-winners-and-losers/#comment-44559 I hear tell that the MDP will only accept back previous members (ie. Uri defectors) if they do not include the three main instigators. Chung is hiding in Europe... and the other two are still around but I forget their names. Next election, watch for the left to split their shrinking vote. If I was the MDP I would say bullocks to any defectors and try to build a center support party. I hear tell that the MDP will only accept back previous members (ie. Uri defectors) if they do not include the three main instigators. Chung is hiding in Europe… and the other two are still around but I forget their names.

Next election, watch for the left to split their shrinking vote.

If I was the MDP I would say bullocks to any defectors and try to build a center support party.

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