As the “politics guy” here at the Hole, I guess I would be remiss if I did not remind readers that we have yet another set of by-elections tomorrow.
As the Korea Times’ Lee Jin-woo* reports, the GNP is looking for another sweep.
Polls predicted another sweeping victory for the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) in the July 26 by-elections.
Four lawmakers will be elected in the by-elections to be held in Songpa-gu and Songbuk-gu, both in Seoul; Puchon in Kyonggi Province; and Masan in South Kyongsang Province.
GNP expects to win all four constituencies.
That the GNP will retake the three seats it previously held is pretty much a given. Two of those races, Puchon and Songpa-gu, were vacated by GNP men running for higher office. In Songpa-gu the GNP candidate, Maeng Hyung-kyu, gave up his seat to run for mayor of Seoul. Maeng is running far ahead of his Uri opponent in his bid to reclaim his old seat. In Puchon, the GNP guy is expected to take Kim Moon-soo‘s old seat (Kim was elected as Governor of Gyeonggi-do). Masan is a GNP stronghold. Not even Son-of-Golfgate will shake up those races.
Yes, it can get even worse for Uri
The only interesting race is the Uri-held seat in Songbuk-gu. But even there the Uri candidate is not the main opposition to the GNP. That distinction goes to the former chairman of the Democratic Party, Chough Soon-hyung. A 4-0 GNP would be bad enough, but a 3-1 GNP win with the Democrats taking the other seat would be even worse. It would mean that the Democrats are ready and able to sortie out of Fortress Jeolla and make serious runs in the rest of the country. If Uri wants to hold on to any seats in Chungcheong or the Seoul area in 2008, it needs to prove that it is the only alternative to the GNP in those areas. A Democrat win would burst that perception.
Uri failed to kill the Democrats in the local elections earlier this year (despite the efforts of then Uri Party Chairman Chung Dong-young against the Democratic mayor of Gwangju in). Now we will see if the Democrats can deliver a crippling and perhaps fatal blow to Uri.
If both parties continue to limp along through 2008, the GNP might end up winning two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly
*Say what you will about the tourist papers, a Lee Jin-woo article is usually loaded with facts. I am a bit of a fan of the guy.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
Mr. Jackson, there was talk of Goh Kun running on the MDP (DP) ticket for the next presidency…have you heard anything new about this?
Ryu Jin at the KT is also a good reporter…too bad everything else is crap.
Last I heard, he is trying to get all the parties without the initials “GNP” on board behind his campaign.
Plan A was a fusion ticket between the DP and the new “Citizens Centered Party” but the CCP tanked in the local elections.
I believe Plan B is to let Uri and the DP stew in there juices for a while until they realize that they don’t have anyone in their stables who can beat either Park Geun-hye or Lee Myong-bak.
Goh will check into an old folks home by the time of the next election. He doesn’t worry me.
It’s whether the GNP will do something dumb before next year to muck it all up.
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