Thinking about war is a lot like finding an apartment. In each case, much of one’s worldview can be boiled down to: “Location, location, location.” If I were in the States, I might read this and say, “How interesting. That would be SO COOL to see on CNN!”
Last week Bush was working the phones to the leaders of China and Russia. But British officials think it unlikely that either will support a Japanese proposal for UN sanctions on the North Koreans.
That leaves the Bush administration with the same unpalatable choices that existed a week, a month or a year ago. The military option, to all practical purposes, does not exist. “An attack is highly unlikely to destroy any existing North Korean nuclear weapons capability,” wrote Phillip Saunders of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, in a paper analysing its risks.
“The biggest problem with military options is preventing North Korean retaliation,” Saunders said. He believes half a million artillery shells an hour would be rained on Seoul in the first day of any conflict from North Korean artillery hidden in caves. The North Koreans could fire 200 mobile rocket launchers and launch up to 600 Scud missiles. American and South Korean casualties, excluding civilians, are projected at between 300,000 and 500,000 in the first 90 days of war.
Living in Seoul, however, the above just makes me want to find the nearest pojangmacha before I staggered to the nearest noraebang. Wow. That’s a lot of people. And I could be one of them. As well as everyone I know in Seoul. Those are some sobering figures, indeed. The entire article is worth a gander as well.
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“China is the source of the problem, not the source of the solution,” argued Edward Timperlake, a defence official in the Reagan administration and author of Showdown, a new book on the prospect of war with China.
Finally, some people in Washington are seeing the situation as is. I have been writing this fact for almost two years.
KJI is just a puppet in the hands of the Chinese.
““The biggest problem with military options is preventing North Korean retaliation,” Saunders said. He believes half a million artillery shells an hour would be rained on Seoul in the first day of any conflict from North Korean artillery hidden in caves. The North Koreans could fire 200 mobile rocket launchers and launch up to 600 Scud missiles. American and South Korean casualties, excluding civilians, are projected at between 300,000 and 500,000 in the first 90 days of war.”
… All the more reason to do a pre-emtive strike and take out everything North Korea has in one fall swoop. Remind them who’s in charge. Then ask them again nicely if they want to come back to the 6-way talks or go through a change of government the old-fashioned way.
it’s not like they’re not going to, uh, notice what we’re up to given how much bombing that would involve.
“American and South Korean casualties, excluding civilians, are projected at between 300,000 and 500,000 in the first 90 days of war.”
How so? By revoking your civilian status?
they said the same shit about the first gulf war and iraq invasion of 2003
they said the afghans kicked russia’s ass and they would kick the americans as well
the war isnt lasting 90 days
not even close
They said the same thing about the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
And unlike Iraq in 2003, North Korea actually does have WMDs.
All the more reason to withdraw American troops and terminate the “alliance” with South Korea. Then if we bomb them, they have no more reason to attack the South than to attack China or Vanuatu.
Speaking of location….funny how China is worried as well…I mean, if anyone bombs NK you know what that means for China: more foreign business.
During the first gulf war, the UAE made a killing off businesses related to supplying the military forces in Kuwait. If anything goes down on the peninsula, because of its location China (and maybe even Russia) will profit big time and that money is going to give China at least, an even bigger jumpstart toward what is already happening there right now.
You know, people often say that they are worried about North Korea’s militaristic saber-rattling, all the artillery and missles they have pointed at South Korea, and the stability of the Kim Jong-il regime. You know what scares the hell out of me? It’s the under-paid, under-fed nuclear technician at NK’s nuclear plants using what I can only imagine to be out-dated (at best) equipment and making some mistake causing a Chernobyl like meltdown. THAT scares me.
Good point. Although I would think the people who were downwind of those places would be a bit more nervous. Which way does the wind blow from Yongbyong?
We will be toast! Different wars, different circumstances. If they shells us we will have virtually no protection.