OK, I think President Roh’s finally lost it.
Reacting to discussion by Japanese officials of preemptive strikes, Cheong Wa Dae absolutely went off on Tokyo, saying the comments revealed Japan’s “aggressive tendencies,” tendencies against which Korea had no choice but to be alarmed.
Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Chung Tae-ho said, “When we reflect on the painful historical fact that In the Past ™ Japan used the protection of its citizens residing on the Korean Peninsula as an excuse for invasion, the comments are grave and threatening ones harming peace on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia.”
This is the same Cheong Wa Dae, of course, that didn’t find North Korea firing seven missiles in the direction of Japan particularly worrisome.
Chung said, “That Japanese government ministers are repeatedly discussing the possibility of preemptive strikes on the Korean Peninsula and the appropriateness of the use of force is in and of itself a serious situation.”
He continued, “Our government is saying that as a provocative act that seriously harms peace and stability in Northeast Asia, we cannot permit North Korea’s missile launches… But we will strongly react to the arrogance and recklessness of Japan’s political leaders who through their dangerous and provocative comments invoking ‘preemptive strikes’ seek to amplify the crisis on the Korean Peninsula and justify their becoming a military Great Power using the [missile tests] as an excuse.”
No, that wasn’t the KCNA. That was Yonhap News. Quoting the Cheong Wa Dae spokesman.
This situation has gone past silly and is now total and utter bullshit. Cheong Wa Dae is clearly playing on its own team right now—I really wonder if they’re even bothering to consult the Foreign Ministry before issuing these statements. I’d think of something witty to say, but I’m at a complete loss of words. Actually, that’s not true… I do have things to say, but I’d rather cool down first lest I say something I’ll later regret.
UPDATE: Here’s the statement in English, translated by Cheong Wa Dae:
At a daily meeting to check upon current developments, there was a discussion about yesterday’s various statements of the key cabinet members of the Japanese government, which all referred to a “preemptive strike” and “use of force” with regard to North Korea’s missile launches. Considering the gravity and significance of the problem, we have decided to make public the conclusions of today’s meeting.
We cannot help pointing out that the fact Japanese cabinet members, one after another, openly discuss the possibility of a preemptive strike and the validity of a use of force against the Korean Peninsula is itself a grave matter.
In light of the painful historical records that Japan justified its invasion of Korea in the past as a measure to protect its citizens residing on the Korean Peninsula, we cannot but conclude that these grave and threatening statements are to endanger peace in Northeast Asia. They reveal the militant nature of Japan, which warrants our intense vigilance.
The Korean Government has made it clear that North Korea’s missile launches are a provocative act to profoundly threaten the peace and stability in Northeast Asia and that such an act shall not be tolerated. Nonetheless, using this opportunity, the Japanese political leaders are making dangerous and reckless remarks invoking a “preemptive strike” in an attempt to further intensify a crisis on the Korean Peninsula and to justify the militarization of Japan. We will continue to respond decisively to their arrogance and recklessness.
Just to clarify, here is Cheong Wa Dae “making it clear that North Korea’s missile launches are a provocative act to profoundly threaten the peace and stability in Northeast Asia” in an online letter by the Senior Secretary for Public Information dated July 9:
The President’s concern of foremost priority is the safety of the public and a next priority is ensuring that the public would not feel unsafe. A concern about how the public opinion would respond comes after them. Political and media controversies surrounding the missile test-firing should be seen in this context.
Was the missile test-firing by North Korea indeed a crisis at the level of South Korea’s national security? A possible launching of Taepodong was a well-publicized fact. Nonetheless, the Defense Ministry did not make any call for a national emergency. In fact, not just Korea but all the nations involved chose not to call for an emergency. For it was not aimed at any particular party. Even if someone for a political reason wants to drum up this incident towards a national emergency, it is merely a political maneuver and cannot be made into an emergency situation in terms of national security.
The position of South Korea is even more so. Nothing positive would come out of increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula or worsening inter-Korea relations and it does not help in any way resolve the nuclear or missile problems. There is no point in making a political calculation or using this incident as an excuse for a further strengthening of armaments. There is no reason to particularly make a fuss in early morning as Japan did. On the other hand, there is an obvious reason to act otherwise. It was that we should not cause the public to feel unsafe by making an unnecessary fuss. Accordingly, we responded gradually without raising a voice.
To be fair, I’ll also link to the July 5 Cheong Wa Dae briefing in which the presidential office actually made the effort to look upset at the North.
And I’ll ask it again: is the Foreign Ministry being consulted prior to the release of these statements, or are President Roh’s political hacks doing a bit of independent foreign policy making?
UPDATE 2: The NYT’s Norimitsu Onishi writes about the South Korea public’s seeming lack of concern about North Korea’s recent missile tests (HT to Lost Nomad). How’s this for quality locker room bulletin board material?:
Washington’s opposition to engagement has stirred anti-American feelings here and a belief among some that the United States is standing in the way of reconciliation and eventual reunification.
“North Korea is an independent country, so why shouldn’t they be able to fire missiles?” said Kim Yung Reoul, 36, a pastor. “It’s remarkable — they’ve confronted the United States. I felt quite satisfied. I felt as if I’d finally digested something that I had trouble digesting.”
You know, I could say that nothing would help my digestion more than to see Washington cut through all this bullshit and announce a complete withdrawal of USFK by the end of the year and a rewriting of the Korea-U.S. mutual defense pact.
UPDATE 3: HE SPEAKS!
President Roh, speaking to Uri Party leaders and lawmakers at Cheong Wa Dae, said comments by Japanese leaders concerning “preemptive strikes” had created a “new situation,” and he expressed concern that they make things worse.
He said, “Japan’s attitude could create a serious situation for peace in Northeast Asia, as revealed by the inclusion of Dokdo in Japanese textbooks ™, visits to the Yasukuni Shine ™ and the issue of registering undersea place names near Dokdo ™.”
Roh also said he “couldn’t understand at all” North Korea’s decision to test missiles, and that the launches had created many difficulties in trying to manage the North Korean nuclear issue.
He worried that the missile tests and Japanese statements may have created a barrier to the government’s continuous efforts to prevent the use of force on the Korean Peninsula.
About the Korea-U.S. relationship, he said that while the two sides might have differences of opinion, they are reconciling and managing those differences as they move foward (you can stop laughing now).
He also said dialogue with the North Koreans would continue, and it was only through continuous dialogue with Pyongyang that the people would feel secure.
Uri Party chairman Kim Geun-tae said North Korea’s missile launches were “clearly a mistake and provocations” that required bipartisan action. But he said that “for the future of the Korean people,” dialogue with the North must not be suspended.
He also also said it was appropriate for the president to raise issue with Japanese hardliners, and that one had to be concerned that they were using the missile launches as an opportunity to rearm.
Uri Party policy committee chairman Kang Bong-gyun wondered whether North Korea’s missile tests, given how irrational a choice they were, weren’t a provocation by hardliners in the North Korean military. He said the government needed to take a firm attitude with the North, but he also noted that it was “undesirable” for Japan to threaten the peace in Northeast Asia. He said security was possible only with strong cooperation with the United States.
Some other lawmakers getting quoted in the Yonhap piece if you care to read it.



71 Comments
“saying the comments revealed Japan’s “aggressive tendencies,”
Sigh, the Roh-nothings are getting more and more ridiculous as time goes on. How about “saying the firing of the missiles revealed North Korea’s ‘aggressive tendencies’”?
Roh and his cronies are hopeless. Just keep counting down the days until they are happily booted out. It’s largely because of these guys and their like-minded ilk that expats such as me want to see US troops withdrawn. These losers are not doing Korea a damn bit of good.
The following comment was posted Chosun daily on the Rho’s response to Japan.
정성준 (chsjoon) 10 2
더 이상 나라 망하기 전에 쫓아냅시다. (07/11/2006 15:57:09)
Translation: Let’s kick out Rho before this country goes to shithouse.
I second the motion.
I hate to do this, but the following article is major importance to all men. It is bigger than Korea, a lot bigger.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07.....plode.html
The doctor said, ” I told the bitch that she aint gonna get nothin”.
Robert,
You almost sound surprised by these statements. Let’s just hope someone with some sense puts the breaks to this before it gets out of hand. But I’ll bet the NORKs are happy as shit right now…everyone’s playing into their hands.
Brakes, damn it, I meant brakes. Although a few breaks wouldn’t hurt either.
The problem and the solution are that both Korea and Japan are correct, but only half correct.
On the Korean side, Roh should acknowledge that North Korea is being too aggressive and launching the missiles was a mistake. They should support the UN resoluation condemning North Korea, cut off all aid, and suspend all current projects, including cheap-labor Kaesong. At the same time, Roh is right to call a spade a spade when it comes to Japan. Japan should not use this as an excuse to bulk up and talk about changing from a policy of defense to one of attack.
As for Japan talking about cloaking an attack as a “defensive, pre-emptive” strike and upping the attack power of their military in general, they don’t exactly have a good history in the region when it comes to self-restraint and consideration of other nations. The entire region and even the U.S. should be very concerned about the world’s 2nd-largest economy wielding the world’s 2nd-largest Navy “bulking up” for combat. However, Japan is right to call a spade a spade. North Korea’s “missile tests” over/near Japan should be not ignored.
‘maybe south korea missed nk shot missiles in japan’s direction!’
yeah, or maybe, nk shot them toward the sea. that’s a lot different than threatening to attack korea.
IF, as a child, you had been forced to watch as imperial soldiers buried your parents alive, you might appreciate that your president is alert to the implications of recent Japanese rhetoric.
Trachys—
And I suppose the N Koreans/Chinese (during that little thing called the KOREAN WAR) did nothing but nice, kind, wonderful things, right?? Oh, I forgot, that was all the Yanks fault! I MUST be getting old….
I second MigukNamja’s sentiments.
The Roh administration needs to make it crystal clear that they will not stand for what Pyongyang did and they need to start pulling the plug on some things. Sunshine Policy is of no value if the carrots can’t be pulled away from time to time, and there’s no more appropriate time as this.
On the other hand, the Japanese cabinet is seriously over-reacting, both in terms of what they are thinking of doing (a pre-emptive strike) and how they are planning to do it (a possible end-run around the pacifist constitution).
Everybody should be pissed off as hell at Pyongyang, including the Russians whose waters one of the missiles actually landed in, but ultimately it must be kept in perspective that the missile launch was a failure. Had it been a success, I think Tokyo’s reaction would be more reasonable.
Okay, so maybe Tokyo doesn’t want to wait around for a successful launch and is thinking taking out the launch pad, the missile production facility, and/or Yongbyon would be the solution. But with any use of an actual attack of Japanese territory or personnel guaranteed to be met with an overwhelmingly punishing response, it is a form of MAD that would effectively deal with any attempt by Pyongyang to use missiles or nukes. If NK really used any of these against Japan or South Korea, they would be toast. It would be all the excuse needed to wipe the DPRK leadership off the map, once and for all.
What would happen if Tokyo “pre-emptively” attacks North Korean territory? Unless they do it tonight or tomorrow, North Korea is going to make their own threats of how they will retaliate, which will probably include some nasty needle pricks. They might even threaten — a la Saddam Hussein attacking Israel in the first Gulf War — that they will respond to an attack by a US ally with an attack on any US ally. In other words, they will threaten to attack whatever part of Japan AND South Korea they can find an easy target.
Once that threat is out there, it has a greater chance of actually occurring. The whole thing won’t end with Tokyo’s pre-emptive attack. It might end very, very, very badly.
What the hell is the US-Japan-Korea alliance for anyway? An attack like that should not be necessary. Not at this point anyway.
If this possibility has the effect of concentrating the minds of a few South Koreans, there is absolutely nothing wrong with Japan’s thinking.
Lots of commentary over here, but, I am surprised by the number of people (Koreans?) defending this Madman .
http://www.crisscross.com/jp/news/377722/all
As per usual, Roh’s out of touch with reality.
Make no mistake, The Chinese are clearly behind all this. They are testing our resolve in the Far East right now.
Wow…. just wow. Northeast Asia: Where perceieved history is much more important than present reality.
Yep. South Korea’s statement is basically the diplomatic equivalent of saying, “Move along… nothing to see here.” Somehow, if North Korea invaded South Korea tomorrow, I could easily see the No administration criticizing the US forces for launching a counterattack/defending themselves.
Notice the wording here. The statement doesn’t criticize possible strikes against North Korea, but against the Korean Peninsula. I dunno that I would want to cast my lot in with the madmen up north so explicitly.
I really don’t get this… The No Administration seems to think that Japan has to justify its militarization. On the other hand, they basically turn a blind eye to North Korea’s much more troubling militarization. While I can understand how South Korea might feel a bit uncomfortable over the prospect of an arms race between North Korea and Japan, why isn’t the administration criticizing the regime with the history of lobbing missiles over neighboring countries?
Forget North Korea… Can we invade South Korea now? A regime change could really do them a bit of good.
“Once that threat is out there, it has a greater chance of actually occurring. The whole thing won’t end with Tokyo’s pre-emptive attack. It might end very, very, very badly.”
The only person it would end up very very very badly for would be Kim and his supporters. Any attempt of retaliation from the North would then be a full out war with America, Japan and a hand full of other nations against North Korea. China isn’t stupid enough to get in this war at this moment, they haven’t built up anything close to a military to counter America (but they’re trying their damnedest). Perhaps Kim will get off a few stray missiles that might hit South Korea or Japan, but the numbers will be nothing compared to the numbers of his own people he kills in a month. This should have been done long ago. Too bad S. Korea lives in a fantasy world where they are not in just as much danger as Tokyo. I would take diplomacy over military action any day, but the moment the missiles left the ground diplomacy failed.
Roh is seriously overreacting, therefore he’s an idiot. Japan doesn’t have the backbone to attack North Korea on its own.
Just checking this site out,
A lot of the commentary here by the S. Korean Nationals (?) seems to be out of touch with reality, but, non-the-less, it seems to exist. I really don’t know what to say. I can’t believe I’m related to people like these…
http://www.crisscross.com/jp/news/378238
This situation reminds me of the story that starts out with a warning siren or a British police siren, but then very slowly we begin to realize it’s a part of the verse of “Somewhere Over The Rainbow” being played over and over and over and over…
The people of South Korea have suffered invasion and cruelty, more or less recently, at the hands of two neighboring states.
State #1 is now governed by an essentially different regime than the one that carried out the aggression. The office-holders are different, the laws are different, and the last 60 years of behavior have been different.
State #2 is still governed by the same regime that carried out the aggression. Here there is political, military, and even genetic continuity between the present and the past.
That the South Koreans cite history to focus their distrust and resentment on State #1 and not State #2 suggests to me that they are not thinking politically, but perhaps tribally. There may be parts of the world where one can afford not to think politically. I would never have guessed that East Asia is one of them.
No one yet has seemed to see a link between the Dokdo survey ship that crossed into alleged Japanese territory (under Japanese protest) and the firing of these rockets at just about the same time. Such a coincidence it was.
Perhaps the Roh Administration has more linkage with the North Koreans than one would suspect.
Consider the following from a current NY Times article as well:
or this pastor:
Such a variety of responses, indeed.
> OK, I think President Roh’s finally lost it.
Are you sure that he ever HAD it…?
The Japanese have been talking about whether it’s constitutional to launch pre-emptive attack or not. They decided it was a while ago. Hence AWACS, tankers and F-2s, not to mention a sizeable navy.
South Korea has gone from being neutral to being actively against American interests. Noh is doing his best to force the U.S. to pick between Japan and South Korea, which is an obvious pick. It’s long past time to bring our boys home. You can’t paper over a split in the alliance that’s as wide as the Grand Canyon.
Japan has every right to attack NK missile bases, if it wants to.
Rho, as a president of another country, can stay the shit out of this decision.
Rho can concentrate governing his own country. With only less than 10% approval rating, he doesn’t even get respect from his own people.
Japan must attack NK. NK has kidnapped and enslaved a young Japanese girl (Mekumi) and the girl committed suicide. Remind you of sex slaves of WWII? Worse.
Now, NK has fired missiles and it says the missiles will be used against the US and Japan. Fugh these cock suckers.
Bomb NK! I, as a KoreanAmerican, along with true patriotic Koreans fully approve it. Bomb now!!!!
Robert: reading your blog is like inhaling a deep breath of fresh air, a dose of sanity in a shitstorm of nonsense. Thank god for Marmot’s Hole. Just when I think ROK politics are going to drive me crazy, I can come here and read the alternative viewpoint. Much, much appreciated.
You do know you’re basically the reason I started blogging, right?
Of all the things the South Korean left hates America for, preventing reunification is very low on the list, since that’s the last thing the left wants. If anything, they hate America for endangering the ongoing comfy division by threatening to topple Kim Jong Il.
And yet the foreign media continue ascribing anti-Americanism to the South Koreans’ belief that the US is blocking the unification they so yearn for, etc. When will the rest of the world understand that the SK left doesn’t want re-unification ever??
Your comment at the end about withdrawing is more prescient than you think.
“You know, I could say that nothing would help my digestion more than to see Washington cut through all this bullshit and announce a complete withdrawal of USFK by the end of the year and a rewriting of the Korea-U.S. mutual defense pact.”
Right around October, at the SCM meeting between SECSTATE Rice and Ban Ki-moon (Foreign minister), I predict an announcement of great consequence, mostly to the ROK. President No and all the ban-mi-반미 (anti-American) people here are going to feel tangible pain. At LONG last, South Korean’s are going to feel real pain as a consequence of their bullshit we’ve put up with for decades. ROK is like 30 yr old kid that won’t leave home. Blue House will try to spin this announcement around a blanket of nationalism but in short order, the people of this country (especially the elites of society) are going to wake up and realize they are very alone in the world. I have personal ties here so you can’t say I have it out for the ROKs, but everything in their not-so-far off future looks exceptionally bad…. 1-Unification whether they like it or not by war or by implosion 2-life without the US military to do everything for them
When they realize, this time we really mean it (we’re going home), there’s going to be fear and controlled panic…maybe capital flight and a LONG line at the US embassy. Permanent damage has been done to ROK-US relations. Next December’s ‘07 presidential election is too long to wait. Although everyone expects the URI showing at the polls to make McGovern look like William the Conqueror…the (permanent) damage will have been done.
Wedge,
It will hurt bad enough to see US equipment loading on ships and planes and departing the ROK….but to add insult to their injury, I suspect it won’t go far…it will be unloading in Japan. Ya think that’ll get them riled?
“Japan should not use this as an excuse to bulk up and talk about changing from a policy of defense to one of attack.”
Why shouldn’t Japan use this as an excuse? Roh and most other leaders in the region have milked all the lame excuses possible for their own ends, why not the Japanese? And in this case, it’s not a lame excuse, it makes plenty of sense in my mind. If I were Japanese, I’d be expecting and demanding a strong military build-up right now.
Just as in the US, the politicians’ main job is to act in the best interests of the country and a strong military is probably always in the best interests of a country (even if you’ve got a strong protector, such as Canada has from the US, it’s ridiculous not to be able to defend yourself properly or at least minimally).
Am I the only one here who thinks all the sides (NK,South Korea, Japan, angry expat blogs) are over reacting?
“…North Korea firing seven missiles in the direction of Japan ”
sorry but this is entirely wrong. globalsecutiry now has a comprehensive analysis
http://www.globalsecurity.org/.....ir2627.htm
“Almost certainly it was a satellite launch at an inclination of 41 degrees or perhaps a three stage booster dummy warhead launch to impact down range in the south Pacific relative to South America”
see also http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/20.....ve-it.html about the ‘hawaii’ rumour.
—-
why SK are not worries? see NYT on the big fuss
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07.....amp;emc=th
elgin,
i spotted the coincidence :), when i saw two news items side by side…
http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/20.....ories.html
“the people of this country (especially the elites of society) are going to wake up and realize they are very alone in the world”- soyongnim
Not only alone but surrounded by animals who want to have “taste” of her.
When these animals(China, NK, Russia and Japan) are through with her, there will be nothing left in Korea.
Just prisons. Welcome to Gulag Seoul.
South Korea’s ONLY hope is that - Roh and the people he has put around him are really only an aberration, a fluke.
That is what everybody seems to believe.
I’m not so sure, but I can’t follow Korean politics that closely.
I do know that in general their type of thinking has been popularly entertained by a great many South Koreans —-
—but the society just always had a conservative in control of the Blue House or someone like Kim Dae Jung who was going to let those millions of Koreans enjoy their Japan and US bashing to boost Korean sense of pride and even a masochistic sense of nationalism - while it kept an eye on what was best for South Korea.
What I mean is —
I don’t see the difference with Roh being that he is just so wacky and way outside the mainstream divisions in Korea.
The big difference has been —-
that certain strong tendancies in Korea society led to the election of someone who —-
—would actually put certain tendancies into actual state policy.
The fact this is shocking to a good bit of South Korean society —
doesn’t convince me they were actually totally against Roh’s kind of thinking.
It just means they never expected a Blue House to act on it.
If I am close to right —–
that would mean that Uri Party types are not going to just fade away quickly when Roh is out.
Even if the GNP wins the presidency this next election —
——- Roh’s wacky actions could ever well be a sign that —
these long held trends in South Korean society —
are finally starting to flower at the very top levels of power.
I’m not saying Roh is a sign that such thinking will become dominant.
I am saying I have the feeling they will remain a very significant force in Korean politics at the executive level —- and not just some grumblings in the National Assembly — for many years into the future - probably getting stronger rather than weaker as time goes by.
“South Korea has gone from being neutral to being actively against American interests.”
Nail - head - SPIKE!
It is not called Seoul any more. Kim Jongil city.
When the income level is sunk to $1000 per year, the US came to use cheap labors (some company representatives are former English teachers) and Vietnamese men come to pick up cheap brides.
Welcome to Kim Jongil city.
And to follow up on a couple of comments above and the last part of marmot’s post —
This most likely will help US policy makers - both in the executive and legislative branches — make up their minds about how soon to get out of Korea.
The leaning has been in that direction.
More than leaning — a good chunk of USFK is leaving. We know that.
The questions have been how much eventually would remain if any and if most would be gone, but when?
The first couple of days of South Korea’s response to the missile tests were going to do damage.
The utter silence on the missiles was worse damage than I had expected.
Refusing to back the UN Security Council moves was no suprise, but did more damage.
Kicking Japan in the balls for making the moves in the UN was a suprise even given South Korea’s recent Japan bashing.
But to add to it the kind of rhetoric we are hearing —-
and to see a SK admin big wig say the US has to support the Kaesong Complex to repay (both) Koreas for the division of the peninsula —
is jaw-dropping damage.
If you are a member of the US Congress that supports keeping the US-SK alliance pretty much at status quo ——-
—the only thing you can argue with any kind of straight face is — the hope that Roh and his people are far fringe elements that somehow got elected on a fluke and will fade overnight after the next presidential election.
And that is going to be a tough sale even if it is the truth - which I kind of doubt.
For myself — I can’t help selfishly wishing Roh and crew in the executive and legislative branches in Korea would keep promoting more of these words and keep making North Korea the South’s only ally –
so we can see 100% of USFK out within 5 to 10 years……
But that is going to be terrible for South Korea….
I think what is needed by the South Korean government is a \”cool response\” to the Japanese \”crises\”. If South Korea continues to \”box Japan into a corner\”, Japan will feel threatened and possibly \”lash out\”.
Well….that was Roh\’s advice to Bush over the North Korean crisis. I hope he takes his own advice over the Japanese \”crisis\”. I also wish once just once Roh would call Kim Jung il “dangerous” and “reckless”. It just doesn\’t work with the Japanese.
Just imagine how South Korea would feel and do if Japan launched a few missiles close to its shores or over its airspace.
North Korea goes into South Korean waters and kills several South Korean soldiers in a sea \”scuffle\” in 2002 and not a peep from Roh. Japan sends an unarmed boat to survey Dokdo and all hell breaks out. Roh is a human rights lawyer who refuses to even entertain the possibility of bringing up NK human rights. It takes a very…uh…unique person to be so hypocritical. Maybe his mama dropped him on his head when he was young.
Who is that adorable baby in your picture Baduk?
i’ll quote a chosun comment , too..
• 심영녀 (woldchung)
똥싼넘 한테는 한마디도 못하고, 야단치는 사람만 탓하고 있으니 대한민국이 거꾸로 가는것이 맞지??? (07/12/2006 07:16:38)
The utter silence on the missiles was worse damage than I had expected.
Utter silence?
Oh, and this comment from Jing (#41)…
Who is that adorable baby in your picture Baduk?
… made me imagine Jing’s and Baduk’s gravatars hooking up.
I think I’ve been watching too much “Family Guy.”
“Utter silence?”
Right, not to mention that Uri Party government has been heavily criticized by most of the conservative media. And then you have editorials after editorials imploring the Roh administration to get tougher. Where is this ‘utter silence’ that everyone talks about here?
I concur with Kushibo on the point that Seoul wasn’t exactly silent on the issue, though their response wasn’t exactly filled with gutteral fortitude either. Roh, for one however, was certainly distracted from North Korea’s machinations rather easily, wasn’t he? I suspect he truely does view Japan as more of a threat, however misguided that idea might be, and the suspended shipments and rejection of talks are at best efforts to appease the US and the rest of the west.
Roh’s absolute incoherency has made me reflect on the whole talk a few weeks ago about the 2007 presidential election. While I don’t harbor much hope that the GNP as a party will rise beyond their “anti-commi first” platform to embrace other facets of democratic/capitalistic philosohpy, I am more willing now to put my faith in a Park Gun-hye type IF she can revive some of her father’s knack for pragmatism in the face of national skepticism (read: cooperate with the Japanese).
BTW Kushibo, you beat me to it on Jing and Baduk. When I saw that comment I nearly dropped out of my seat.
To add more to this, I don’t believe everyone in Seoul is using the same playbook. The Foreign Ministry, Unification Ministry and Defense Ministry all seem to be pursuing their own agendas, while the Cheong Wa Dae staff appear to be on their own little planet. I can only assume Roh supports the Cheong Wa Dae statements, but then again who really knows, because in true Roh fashion, he ain’t saying much about any of this (note: as I look at Naver, I see Roh finally HAS said something. Will update).
Kushibo—the key word here is “suspended” aid. Which everyone and his brother knows means the gravy train will depart station as soon as everything dies down. Defending South Korea’s decision not to do anything (and there are arguments that can be made in favor of this course of
inaction) is one thing, but claiming it’s doing something when it’s not is quite another.The Marmot, I have no disagreement with anyone who thinks that Seoul can and should do a lot more. But suspending aid — and for how long before “everything dies down” is we really don’t know, so it’s at best premature to talk as the resumption is a done-deal — is certainly not “utter silence.”
And I think you’re a tad too blasé about the Aso-Abe axis talking up pre-emptive attacks and the need for building capability to attack foreign bases. Seoul has in fact condemned Pyongyang over the missile launch, and it is perfectly within reason to also call into question Tokyo attempts to run counter to sixty years of constitutional pacifism as an overreaction.
Attacking North Korea over this was a bad idea when American Democrats suggested it, and it’s a bad idea now when Japanese conservatives are suggesting it. It seems you once agreed.
Oh, and it turns out I correctly predicted the Taepodong-2 fizzling out. I demand Baduk-esque recognition for my prediction, only without the Baduk-esque derision for being belligerent and, generally speaking, totally crackers.
Kushibo, American Democrats (i.e., Perry and his friend) suggested we take out North Korea’s Taepodong missile site NOW. Yes, that was a very bad idea, and I made it clear I thought so when it was raised. That is not what the “Aso-Abe axis” has done. All they’ve suggested is that Japan should discuss whether a pre-emptive strike on North Korean missile facilities would fall within the scope of self-defense and that Japan should have the means to attack foreign bases if need be. Granted, this is a big deal for Japan, but a perfectly natural order of business for any other nation on the planet if faced with a similar situation. And frankly, what are you going to tell Tokyo? That they can’t try to take out North Korean missile sites if the birds are sitting on the launch pads fueled up and aimed at Japanese cities?
Jing,
He is a little Argentinian soccer fan (recognize the uniform?). I lift the face from an Argentinian soccer site.
Kushibo,
OK, I will recognize you as my equal. Satisfied? However, I still believe the Taepodong-2 was shot down by StarWars system. Taepodong-1 flew over Japan four years ago. I cannot believe NK had moved backward in last four years. Very hard to believe. Defective fuel? NK scientists are trained in Russian universities and they are not dumb. Actually very smart people. This, all the more, supports the theory that it was shot down.
And, Robert is right. you like to play a peacemaker, but if you were a Japanese sitting in a Tokyo bar, you don’t want to a missile flying to you. You would rather go and take out the threat. NK has no Navy to speak of and is no match for Japan militarily.
Japan is a country of Samurais and Ninjas. Korea? Do you know what Pres. Lee did during the Korean War?
Granted, this is a big deal for Japan,
And a major potential destabilizer in the region.
but a perfectly natural order of business for any other nation on the planet if faced with a similar situation.
For Japan (and Germany) it’s not that simple.
And frankly, what are you going to tell Tokyo? That they can’t try to take out North Korean missile sites if the birds are sitting on the launch pads fueled up and aimed at Japanese cities
If you’re Tokyo’s allies, especially its primary protector who would get sucked into whatever results, yeah, you’re going to tell them to cool their jets. If the birds really were sitting on the launch pads with a threatening payload and aimed at Japanese cities, the US would deal with it. But that’s not what we have anyway, and Pyongyang knows that if they really did something like that, they’d be destroyed.
Mini-MAD works. It is absolutely not necessary for Tokyo to do what Aso and Abe are considering. One does have to wonder what they’re up to.
Hey, it’s not Japan’s fault it’s surrounded by the neighbors its got.
Yeah, I heard they lost World War II. I think I read that in a history book somewhere.
Holy American Dependency, Batman! I mean, yeah, I understand our defense treaty with Japan essentially makes the islands an American dependency (we have to defend them, but they don’t have to defend us), but that doesn’t mean that Japan has continue behaving that way in the 21st century. And besides, you know what they say—if jaju gukbang is good for the goose…
Those shift bastards, they’re probably up to something dastardly like trying to get some control over their own security policy so that they don’t have to go running to the Pentagon everytime someone threatens to do something mean to them.
The utter silence meant Roh personally and his administration immediately after that.
There are even quotes out there where the admin explained silence was a chosen strategy.
Come on…
As for the meeting — that was one offered just before the missiles were shot and the shot came just before SK had even agreed or not to go in the first place.
But —- did they not just keep a meeting that had been scheduled long before?
Next, how long do you think that aid is going to remain held back?
Roh’s admin isn’t going out of its way to shield Pyongyang pubically (while China and Russia uses their muscle in the UN to do it practically)
I’m dreaming all this up?
Roh is balancing out the Sunshine vibes, eh?
“Defending South Korea’s decision not to do anything (and there are arguments that can be made in favor of this course of inaction) is one thing, but claiming it’s doing something when it’s not is quite another.”
Bingo!
“But suspending aid — and for how long before “everything dies down” is we really don’t know, so it’s at best premature to talk as the resumption is a done-deal — is certainly not “utter silence.””
Kushibo, the check is in the mail….
“And frankly, what are you going to tell Tokyo? That they can’t try to take out North Korean missile sites if the birds are sitting on the launch pads fueled up and aimed at Japanese cities”
What are those boat is Yosuka doing? What are Japanese paying $2bn/yr for? US, who already pledge preemptive strike, has the responsibility to do the job if the threat is so imminent.
Isn’t this the whole arrange since 1945?
the only difference now, is that the threat from USSR has been replaced by a much weaker, less potent, threat called kim jongil, who is more likely to strike the SK than Japan.
The US will protect Japan if Japan cannot defend the country by itself.
Japan is no weakling.
Army: 258,000
tanks: 1200
armor vehicle: 1000
helicoptors: 480
Navy: very strong
fighters: 203
all airforce planes: 400
If NK hits some Japanese cities with NoDong(RhoDong may be the right spelling, but I love NoDong), the US will NOT automatically attack NK. Japan will fight first.
The US forces will only be committed if the president allows it and the Congress has to ratify it. There is a good chance that at least some generals will argue that Japan can protect itself against NK attack.
And, I second that. The US should not be involved in the regional conflict between NK (a puppet of China) and Japan, which is a precursor for the China-Japan War.
The US should stay out of this one. Just sell weapons to Japan. They got money.
The following things will come out of this NK’s stupid missile crisis.
1. Japan will get stronger by making and buying more weapons.
2. Japan may do pre-emptive attack on NK if NK shits further by shooting more missiles and tough-talking.
3. If NK shoots more missiles, then there will be a military coup in Korea. People, both Koreans and the Japanese, get nervous. Agitated people do things.
4. The US will move out of the region slowly so as not to get involved in China-Japan hegemony fight.
5. SKs will be divided into two factions, pro-NK(=pro-Chinese) and pro-Japan. People will fight daily on the streets. All foreigners will leave the country.
I wrote:
And a major potential destabilizer in the region.
And The Marmot responded:
Hey, it’s not Japan’s fault it’s surrounded by the neighbors its got.
Japan bears a great deal of responsibility for the sentiments of the neighbors it has invaded and brutalized.
Japan scrapping its pacifist tendencies would be a major stabilizer regardless of whether the neighbors were rational or not. Any such sort of change in the status quo would be a destabilizing force.
If it is to be done, there is not a good when or why right now to do it.
It is so easily dismissed among many here, but there is a not-so-hidden message in the right-wing, historically revisionist rhetoric promoted at Yasukuni, enough that one should be highly skeptical of the motives of supporters of that place. In other words, there is a trust issue, and it’s caused by people on both sides of the East Sea/Sea of Japan. If what Aso and Abe are talking about is really what the Japanese people want AND it’s really necessary, they should be going about this in a different way.
“If what Aso and Abe are talking about is really what the Japanese people want”
Yes, the Japanese people want to defend their country. Is there anything wrong with it?
” AND it’s really necessary”
Yes, defending one’s country is the number one priority for any government, with the exception of blind Uri pigs.
“they should be going about this in a different way.”
What way? The SK way of paying money to the enemy so that NK can build more missiles? Different way? There is no other way but to build up more weapons and do pre-emptive attack to reduce enemy strength.
Talk is cheap. Pro-active solution is shunned by the morally weak people, with grave consequences.
Remember Chamberlain?
I want Japan to re-arm and get as strong as possible.
When Uri pigs and other pseudo-intellectuals in Korea sees how strong Japan really is, they will think twice about belonging to the Chinese side. They will be afraid of Japan as they are afraid of China now.
Then, they will tone down rhetorics against Japan and truly be neutral. They will finally shut up.
This “fear” of the Japanese will keep Korea out of the certain poverty and destruction as it is heading now. China will suck Korea dry if Koreans are stupid enough to join NK and serve China.
NK missile crisis is a wake-up call. It is a good thing for Korea.
A lot of people call Kim mad, but look at how well he has done to date and has spun this missile test way beyond it’s military significance.
(Long - sorry)
He has picked an issue that stresses the ROK-US Alliance. While WMD and ballistic missiles are a national security priority for the USA, the ROK does not really consider them a direct threat (however misguided this may be). The fact that the US rightly insists on multinational versus bilateral talks allows KJI to continue to win the waiting game and let things play out here. Right now, KJI probably feels more confident that he can continue to provoke the US and Japan as the US administration has become more pragmatic and is effectively too bogged in Iraq to pursue a regime change. The fact that there are 100,000 “hostages” here in South Korea really provide him the security guarantee he is looking for – for now.
By threatening Japan, Kim plays into the hands of the conservative Japanese who
believe its time to stop apologizing for WWII and move on. This includes reviewing it’s constitution and exploring diplomatic and military options for dealing with its neighbors - a right all sovereign states have. Unfortunately, any talk of Japanese military action, mobilizes the ultra-nationalist sentiment of the Chinese and Koreans (north and south) and actually further isolates Japan – something that actually helps China in the long term. The fact that this test comes at a time of heightened tensions between Korea and Japan over a bunch of rocks in the Sea of Japan is a bonus for KJI.
As for the Korean left, their fear of a conflict or collapse of north Korea has them so scared that they will do anything to preserve the status quo. Unfortunately for the average north Korean, this means more starvation and oppression so the South Koreans can continue to enjoy the good life of Equus cars, home shopping, Starcraft, and room-salons. While many thought that after years of a hard-line conservative approach to the north that a new perspective was needed, I don’t think that they anticipated Gomer Hyun’s complete lack of understanding of how to run a country. Well, to be honest, he is pretty good at running it into the ground.
As for the Chinese, although at first the missile tests look like a slap in the face, the long term benefit from a US disengagement from the ROK outweighs the short term costs. As the US moves closer to Japan, China can actually use this to their advantage by playing on nationalist fears of Japanese re-militarization, supported by the USA, in an attempt to further isolate the country and improve their standing in the region. In the long term, the Chinese will greatly benefit from any perception that the US is backing the “Israel of Asia.”
Bottom Line: Despite the best efforts of the ROK left, they are setting Korea up for failure by allowing the USA to wash their hands of this troublesome alliance. The great sucking sound heard after the last US soldier departs will be from the withdrawal of foreign confidence and investment in the “Hub of Asia”. Sorry, but Korea really does not have much too offer anymore, we can buy cheaper rip-off socks (and soon cars)from China and Vietnam. Eventually, Korea may be reunified, probably not under KJI (despite his best efforts) but it will be under less than favorable conditions as the country finds themselves a vassel state of China again.
Errata: South Korea still does have hot chicks to offer, but you can get them in the States now, for a price
….and I dont think USFK can do anything about that.
“yankeesfan_77″, I find no flaws in your logic and it *resonates* in an intuitive fashion.
I can not say that I like it either.
Old Fears Die Hard:
There’s really been some bizarre conspiratorial mindset surrounding the the left-wing socialists in S. Korea.
From reading all the blogs lately, these nutbag socialist in S.Korea didn’t fall far from the trees of the nutbag socialist we have to deal with in our Country. I’m of the mind that all nutbag socialist mindsets are Universal.
Here’s a general, nutbag conspiratorial theory that has been floating around out there in the left-wing septic tank. You have to be a nut to believe all this crap, but maybe they are all nutty as a jailbird over there these days.
The Nutty Theory:
The Japs are in cahoots with U.S. to keep the “good man down.” In another words, U.S. is actively conspiring with the Japanese to keep the Two Korea’s divided for what ever reason.
Of course, these Socialist Nutbags never stop long enough to try to figure out how any of these crap makes any sense but movies like this prove this point exactly:
————————————————————-
Director Kang Woo-seok, 46, has witnessed the gamut of reactions to his new film, “Hanbando”, which opens Thursday.
“Some critics described the film as too strident and confrontational”, Mr. Kang said.
“One compared the president’s character in the film to the current Korean president. Some people have even asked if I plan to enter politics, but I have stressed the fact that this film is set in the future.
“It has been difficult for me to deal with these responses”, he says.
Set in the near future, “Hanbando”, which translates as “Korean Peninsula”, tells the story of a unified Korean government trying to reconnect a railroad between Shinuiju, North Korea and Seoul.
In the course of construction, the Korean government discovers that Japan still has the rights to the railroad under the terms of a 1907 treaty.
When the Japanese government tries to exercise those rights, a Korean historian races to prove that the state seal used to validate the treaty is a fake, by finding the genuine seal.
http://joongangdaily.joins.com.....09101.html
—————————————————————-
Somehow Kim Jong-ILL and the Chinese never enters the picture. It’s as if Kim Jong-ILL conveniently drilled a hole in this idiot’s skull and gave him a permanent brainwash.
There is something definitely missing in this insane mindset.
I really don’t see how anyone could really believe this one. After all, if the political will existed between NK and SK to unify, there would be fuck-all the US and Japan could do short of invasion and occupation that could really stop them. Of course, this is the sort of drek the Nork media shills all the time, but I always imagined that anyone with half a brain could see through something like that.
Holy Jeebus… is that really the plot of a movie that’s been produced? That’s almost as brainless as the whole US/Japan conspiracy thing. Something a bit more realistic:
z z z z Z z . . . z z z z z z
The thing we all need to remember is that it was Bush and The Dick who started all this preemptive bullshit.
It’s the idiots in the Whitehouse who are leading the world to ruin.
Iran, North Korea never would have happened if it weren’t for the dickheads in the Whitehouse.
It’s okay for the USA to control 50% of the world’s armaments, but woe betide any other nation who dare flex its military muscle.
Anyway, the interesting thing is that America is finally realizing nobody gives a shit about how “big and strong” she is.
The times, they are a changin’.
“Iran, North Korea never would have happened if it weren’t for the dickheads in the Whitehouse.”
What was that about nuts in our own country?
Iran and NK just got this way post — what? 2000 and the very election of bushie? or just post-2001 and the war in Afghanistan? Or just the war in Iraq?
Makes sense of it….
Show us how internal pseudo-political clap trap really is founded on much fact….
let’s see it….
enlighten us…….
This is what the region has to fear from the mighty japanese military:
http://www.jda.go.jp/JMSDF/inf...../16cm.html
“Iran, North Korea never would have happened if it weren’t for the dickheads in the Whitehouse.”
Hmmm let’s see, 18 years of nuclear chicanery by Iran, uncovered in what 2004 or 2005? Blame Bush!!!!
And Kim Il-sung nuclear ambitions stretching back to the early 1960s, a series of broken 1980s agreements with Russia and then the flawed 1994 Agreed Framework, which North Korea began cheating on as early as 1996? I know…. Blame Bush!
I dislike Bush and his cronies as much as the next guy, but blaming Iran’s and NK’s nuclear development on the present administration is way too simplistic. Iran’s neighbors India and Pakistan have been nuclear for awhile along with enemy Israel. Iran’s nuclear development is not going to be influenced by US foreign policy. Ditto with the NorKs. They’re not going to sign any agreement that they can’t cheat on.
Slim, That link is just too much — like something the Village People left on the cutting room floor after deciding that it was just tooooo gay.
“Iran, North Korea never would have happened if it weren’t for the dickheads in the Whitehouse.”
What was that about nuts in our own country?
Iran and NK just got this way post — what? 2000 and the very election of bushie? or just post-2001 and the war in Afghanistan? Or just the war in Iraq?
Makes sense of it….
Show us how internal pseudo-political clap trap really is founded on much fact….
let’s see it….
enlighten us…….
North Korea has been asking for one on one talks with the US for years, and the requests so far have all been falling on deaf ears. So, now they are resulting to some diplomacy that can be heard even by the deaf.
Does that enlighten you?
2 Trackbacks
Japan, the PSI & Takeshima/Dokdo…
One of the fun things to do in the blogoshpere is connecting the dots. Over in the Marmot’s Hole we have the (S) Korean government going in to bat on behalf of their Northern brethren and complaining about Japan. Over at the Junkyard Blog, Hot Air Au….
[...] NK Zone: Why Have They Launched? BigHominid’s Hairy Chasms: A Diplomacy Game Lost Nomad: When Will China Pull the Plug on North Korea? North Korean Economy Watch: Summary of current and proposed trade sanctions on DPRK China Confidential: Hill Spins China’s Non-Moderation of North Korea Marmot’s Hole: I think I’m going to be sick (updated) Oranckay: NK just lost its own game of strip poker Occidentalism: 7 Missiles… and Counting? Asian Security Monitor: ‘Hyperpuissance,’ a Myth in N. Korea It Makes a Difference to the Sheep: North Korean Missile Launches…Why? Sperwes Log: The Self-Described “Little Turd” Targeted Hawaii? The Intelligence Summit: North Korea: Missile Tests and Regional Impacts [...]