The Marmot’s Hole

As Joseph has already posted, North Korea has finally decided to let some missiles loose, although nobody is quite sure which missiles were fired and in what quantity. The smart money seems at the moment to be on two medium-range Rodong missiles and a long-range Taepodong-2 that failed shortly after lift-off.

The latest Yonhap News report does what Yonhap does best—quote foreign news sources. So if you came here looking for some particular Korean insight into the night’s events, you’ll have to wait.

What is interesting, however, is that Yonhap believes the U.S. and Japan will coordinate on a response. South Korea doesn’t appear to be factoring into the discussion. At least not yet. Yonhap does, however, quote an unnamed South Korean official as saying it didn’t appear any of the tested missiles were ICBMs.

I’ll keep updating this post on the off chance something actually interesting gets said later.

UPDATE: Funny stuff via the Hankyoreh. Seems the U.S. government believes five missiles were launched, while a high-ranking South Korean intelligence official told the paper 10 were launched. The 10 included Scud, Rodong and Taepodong missiles launched at time intervals, something North Korea can apparently do because all its missile bases are interconnected. He noted that when signs appeared that North Korea was preparing to test a Taepodong 2, similar launch signs were noticed at Rodong and Scud bases as well.

Another South Korean intelligence source, however, told the Hani three missiles were tested—two Rodong and a Taepodong 2. So, while it might be difficult at this stage to reach any conclusion about the tested missiles, I think we can glean from the intel so far that NIS may have an office pool going on the question.

UPDATE 2: A senior State Department official, apparently in a moment in levity, told the WaPo that North Korea’s missile tests would have a “big effect on South Korean public opinion” and embarrass China. Dan Drezner probably has a better grasp on things:

I suspect that the South Koreans — who have been in denial about North Korea for some time — will find a way to rationalize the DPRK’s behavior, and that the Chinese won’t be that perturbed.

I guess it could go either way. The test probably won’t win North Korea any friends in the South, but at the same time, those who’ve already made up their minds about whom to blame will shift the responsibility onto Washington for “creating the situation” by refusing to bend over for Pyongyang, and they’ll respond to the tests by calling on Washington to surrender hold urgent direct talks with the North Koreans.

UPDATE 3: President Roh’s foreign policy advisor just explained that North Korea lauched a Taepodong 2 missile from a base in Taepo-dong, Hwadae-gun, Hamkyongbuk-do at 5:00 a.m. and several “Scud and Rodong-level missiles” from a base in Kitdaeryong, Anbyon-gun, K(G)angwon-do starting from 3:32 a.m. He said the government believes six missiles in total were fired—one Taepodong 2 and five Scud/Rodong missiles. He also said the government believed the Taepodong 2 failed after launch. As Sperwer points out, it’s interesting that the Taepodong 2 was launched from a base other than the one that has been under intense watch over the last couple of weeks.

Oh, those crafty North Koreans…

UPDATE 4: The Oranckay says that the morning’s missile launches will force South Korean society rightward and make it tougher for Roh or anyone to be as understanding with Pyongyang:

Please note, just for the record, I’m not saying the South is going to take strong action. But it has been talking about doing something and if nothing else this will be the final, ultimate indication of how far the South is willing to go to put up with the North’s shenanigans. CNN’s Mike Chinoy says “some observers” suggest Roh Moo Hyun might feel compelled to redouble efforts to appease Pyongyang, but he’s just saying that because he has fallen victim to the general disinformation campaign against Roh that goes on daily on English blogs and news sites. Mark my words, the events of this morning are going to further contribute to South Korean society’s turn towards old-style South Korean conservatism and make it hard for any South Korean government to bend over backwards to be as understanding as possible with Pyongyang, regardless of what Roh or anyone else may want to do.

As I mentioned above, the political effects of the launch in South Korea have yet to be seen, and I think they could go either way.

UPDATE 5: You know, assuming for a moment the Taepodong 2 failed after lift-off, I think we should count ourselves fortunate it dropped into the East Sea.  Had it failed a bit later, I assume it could have landed and/or rained missile parts down on Japan, in which case things could have gotten really interesting.