Your North Korea missile fix, in case you care:
- You’ll be shocked to learn that judging from statements by North Korea’s No. 2 at the UN and the pro-Pyongyang Choson Sinbo in Japan, North Korea appears to be perfectly willing to have direct talks with Washington to resolve this little issue.
- A White House official actually said something intelligent. Traveling with President Bush, National Security Advisor Steve Hadley said, “There tends to be a desire to create a sense of crisis…They seem to think that’s something that works for them.”
- My greatest fear is not that the North Koreans will launch something. My greatest fear is that the threat of a test will scare the Americans so badly they might actually bend over and pay the Barbary pirates in Pyongyang.
- You know, you have to figure the North Koreans are getting pissed—it looks like the Americans have stolen their play book. I mean, between adding on agenda items (counterfeiting, human rights, etc.), playing hard to get and sitting back like you have all the time in the world, it must be really frustrating for the North to watch. I’m still waiting, however, for the Americans to test launch a missile, sorry, satellite over North Korean airspace without prior warning.
- Some believe that the North’s brandishing of the missile threat is actually an invitation for U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill to come to Pyongyang. One North Korea expert in Seoul believes that Pyongyang is trying to get the Americans to start a “second Perry Process” similar to the one begun in 1998 following the first North Korean missile process. The expert also believed the threatened launch was more for bargaining purposes, since—unlike 1998—a launch would be expected to bring with it more American pressure. My own feeling is this would leave the North shit out of luck, because a threatened missile test is a useful bargaining tool only as long as the other side believes you’ll do it. And what’s worse for Pyongyang is that Washington might actually prefer the North just launch the sucker.
- One apparent casualty of the missile “crisis” is former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung’s planned visit to Pyongyang.
- Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok suggested that South Korean aid to the North might be affected if Pyongyang launched. I’ll believe that when I see it.
29 Comments
I hope that North Korea is bluffing again as they did for more than half century.
On the other hand, it is also very sad that those hundreds of bluffing made me not to fear about NK anymore but to give more damn shits about the World Cup.
There is a crisis, an unstable communist country that has been on the brink of starvation since the Soviet collapse has nuclear weapons, just like its buddy Iran. So North Korea has made every attempt it could to engage in counterfeiting, human trafficking, industrial sabotage, and drug running.
Also, with 70% of North Korean troops within 100kms they certainly pose an imminent threat, one that needs to be eliminated for any hopes of peace in the region.
If Truman, and then Clinton weren’t such cowards and acted when the timing was right for a preemptive military strike, we would have a unified Korea currently.
–Remort
This could turn out to be a great opportunity to get rid of North Korea.
Save the Monday morning armchair general military strategizing, Remort. The PLA drove the US forces back to the 38 Parallel, and there is no way any US president could or should bomb the north in the face of intense opposition from its western and southern neighbors.
A missile launch would give Bush’s “axis of evil” rhetoric new meaning, justify all the sanctions, give the Pentagon more justification for pushing Japan to boost its defense spending, put China in a bind over its ally, and so on. I imagine it would be a great development for the U.S.
Also, the whole missile thing going on when KDJ was about to go to Pyongyang should be sufficient proof that KJI doesn’t give a shit about “sunshine.”
i wouldnt even consider KDJ’s cancellation a casualty, its another headline for him. the guys a deceitful trick.
testing…1, 2, 3, testing
All this is the direct result of last fall’s events when the US inexplicably decided to magnify a supremely petty issue (counterfeit dollars) KNOWING that it will sabotage progress on the nuclear talks. Was some lousy fake money so much more important than getting NK to give up its WMDs?
While NK continues to write the book on how a small, impoverished nation can fuck with the world’s sole hyperpower, the US continues to be a case study on how the world’s “leader” bungles diplomacy, miscalculates outcomes, misses the big picture, aggravates existing problems, displays a chronic non-understanding of foreign rivals, and all the while not being able to do jack-shit about NK.
Whose making the sense of crisis other than the person making this statement?
I think KJI just took advantage of the reaction of the US to demand the bilateral talks.
I’ve got two niflty artilcles for everyone.
even the US State department agrees that the 1998 launch was an attempt at a satellite.
http://cns.miis.edu/research/korea/abs98.htm#9024
next is a 2002 Stratfor piece on a new satellite Pyongyang was building:
http://www.stratfor.com/produc.....?id=205307
Worst case scenario, NK launches a missile, the US anti missile defense systems launches and misses, and the North Koreans successfully launch a satellite. The US would look like a major jackass. This is something I would not be happy with, with the exception of an infusement of cash into the ABM System, that would be cool. But internationally the US would have egg on its face.
Intellectual honesty is very important. acknowlege it could be a satellite, and attack the offensive capabilities from there.
Cap’n BBQ, what exactly is your point? Everyone is concerned about a missile launch, not about its payload. N.K. is a known proliferator of missiles, not satellites, and it has no history of pursuing satellite development, so while technically it might add one for a veneer of legitimacy, it is in fact testing its missile technology, and the U.S. should blow it up regardless.
Actually, regardless of how they’ve behaved elsewhere, I think they’ve done a very good job of keeping “the big picture” firmly in sight in regards to North Korea. They haven’t panicked. They haven’t put carriers off the Korean coast, let alone seriously contemplate bombing the North. They haven’t offered a boat load of incentives just to get North Korea to talk, and they haven’t rushed over to Pyongyang for direct talks just because North Korea hints it might do something really big. Was funny money more important than NK nukes? Well, maybe not, although it was more illegal obviously—NK does have the right to develop nuclear weapons, after all. And at any rate, does the Bush adminstration seem all that terribly concerned that North Korea has the bomb? Should it even be concerned? I’m not sure what the big deal is—if the North has nukes, all South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have to do is develop their own nuke arsenals and the “problem” is solved. It’s still to be seen whether it’s the U.S. that’s miscalculating or the North, which seems to be under the impression that the Americans would rather pay off Pyongyang rather than live with a nuclear North Korea, something I’m starting to believe is not the case. Or is it the Chinese who are misjudging; they’re apparently laboring under the impression that the Americans will continue to keep its allies on a nuclear leash regardless of whether China does its part with its allies or not. There’s a lot of time left in the game, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
PS: For some odd reason, your comment ended up in spam protection. Looks like I might need to turn it off.
@Bluejeeves: “All this is the direct result of last fall’s events when the US inexplicably decided to magnify a supremely petty issue (counterfeit dollars) KNOWING that it will sabotage progress on the nuclear talks. Was some lousy fake money so much more important than getting NK to give up its WMDs?”
Counterfeiting is no petty matter. It is so common in China that even small shops invest in machines and taxi drivers will eye bills carefully and snap them to check for crispness. A 100 RMB note represents about 10% of a taxi driver’s monthly salary, so getting stuck with a fake bill is a big deal. Here in the States, even $20 bills get inked up at my local supermarket. If/when North Korea does develop an undetectable supernote, the effect on the global economy would be significant.
Even if the US had not brought up the issue of counterfeit currency, it is unlikely that a real, long-term agreement would have been reached. North Korea is not going to give up its biggest bargaining chip.
“I’m still waiting, however, for the Americans to test launch a missile, sorry, satellite over North Korean airspace without prior warning.”
U2 — the plane - not the rock group.
I agree with Michael’s first post.
I don’t see the US doing much if a test is done.
There might be a lot of hot talk, but it will not result in much more than a continuation with what has already become Washington’s stance of tightening up on the North.
I agree it will be a boost for such a policy.
It will put pressure on China. The US has been needing that for years.
It will put pressure on SK too to get more with the US policy changes, but SK will not do that - beyond short-lived lip service.
A test will boost funding and effort on missile defense —- which will be good.
It was the 1998 test that changed my mind about Star Wars.
NK will not get another Perry process.
It will not get the US into 1-on-1 talks about nukes and missiles.
A test will show NK where it is at with its ICBM launch vehicle.
It will also show the US where NK is at with its ICBM launch vehicle.
To broaden this discussion out —
I wonder if the Europeans much consider how nice it will be when Iran gets to import the hardware or technology for a proven ICBM capable launch system if the North successfully tests it?
I wouldn’t be thrilled.
Iran has been one of NK’s best customers in missile parts and technology……
and it has no history of pursuing satellite development,
Michael, RTFA, theres your history. Read and analyze accordingly.
The big picture is really the question of how to peacefully clean up the detritus of the Cold War and in the process create a unified Korea from the ashes of Stalin’s evil spawn, while making a responsible neighbor out of China.
Jesus, this crisis is like listening to Bolero…only not nearly as much fun. just get it over with, guys, one way or another!
Well, considering that the trajectory for an orbital insertion looks quite a bit different from a ballistic trajectory, I don’t think there’s a whole lot of danger of the US really confusing the two, especially with North Korea waving the ‘hey look at me’ flag for this test. After all, the USA doesn’t want to be the ones to shoot down a ‘peaceful’ satellite vehicle. Of course, the missile/rocket could just explode on the launch pad, assuming it hasn’t done that already.
I’m not sure non-transparent is the best way to describe North Korea. If we reflect on ourselves it won’t seem transparent but if the Norks have been anything over the last 55 years they’ve been consistent. The one-on-one negotiations have nothing to do with missiles, nukes, counterfeiting, poverty, aid, or fertilizer. 1-on-1 vs. 6-way has everything to do with legitimacy. The Dark Side maintains today as they did in 1950 that US intervention is what got in the way of unification; they maintain that today as well. Having dialogue directly with the US bolsters their claims that the “problem” can be solved simply by negotiating with the US. Any involvement by other nations turns the legitimacy focus back on the North.
I’m not as down on the Bush crew as some are, regardless of their abysmal planning performance in Iraq. They are one of the few administrations to play North Korea right. Previous administrations’ utter failures are what have emboldened the North and given them opportunity to raise the stakes to the point that they have.
Am I wrong in thinking that the ONLY reasons NK can do that is because the U.S. is unwilling to trigger what may be a massacre of South Korean civilians (a la “turning Seoul into a sea of fire”) and/or avoid a military response from the PRC?
I have seen too many South Korean netizens take joy and pride in N.K.’s “balls” in “standing up to the Yankees”, when in reality it is the U.S.’s unwillingness to sacrifice them (South Koreans) that allows N.K. to do that. If North Korea bordered Mali and the Western Sahara rather than South Korea and China I doubt Kim Jong-il would be the mouthy arrogant little dwarf he is.
Of course, ueberkyopo is right about that.
If North Korea bordered Mali and the Western Sahara, it’d be Mauritania, and the United States would probably ignore it.
Of course, I’m not so sure being in such a position would mean that Jong-il would be any less of a mouthy prick. After all, Libya is in the same general area, and Kadaffi (or however you spell it) never seemed too reserved in calling for the death of America… even after the USA tried to bomb him.
If Mauritania had a bug up its bum about the U.S. and was threatening to test-fire an ICBM over the Atlantic Ocean, I would hope the U.S. would take a more aggressive stance than it is against North Korea. I maintain that the U.S. is hobbled because of the existence of South Korea and China and for that reason South Koreans should not be all giggly about their co-ethnics in the North “standing up” to the U.S.
FYI, the U.S. did bomb Libya, killing Qaddafi’s adopted daughter. I think that the U.S. considered that reprisal enough at the time.
Of course, Koreans hyperbolically call for the death of America and Japan all the time and can be safely ignored. It’s when they take concrete steps to threaten the safety of the U.S. or Americans (as Libya did) that action need be taken.
Now that li’l Kim has been spotted at an Eric Clapton concert, maybe it’s time to kidnap the little ‘mo and put some pressure on dad that way.
“Jesus, this crisis is like listening to Bolero…only not nearly as much fun. just get it over with, guys, one way or another!”
So much to chew over and ponder.
Quiet profound.
Thanks for adding it to the discussion.
Robert is right, as much as the USA has totally fucked up in Iraq, it has done the correct thing in the Dear Leader’s case. This leads me to wonder, however, how much was by design or accident?
In NK’s case, the USA simply does not have the manpower. The US Army is tied up in a Sunni-Shia civil war in Iraq and could not do much in Korea even if it wanted to. It is also pretty obvious that tyrants do not live forever. It would be a much better scenario for NK’s people to overthrow their despot and decide their own destiny. Perhaps there is a lesson to be learn here?
Besides, Bush, Cheney and Wolfie went to Iraq to get the oil. Unfortunately the enemy did not play to their tune, as Saadam promised before the invasion.
There is nothing worth fighting for in NK and I don’t buy the “freedom and democracy” manta because the Dear Leader is every bit as bad, or even worse, than Saadam ever was.
“It is also pretty obvious that tyrants do not live forever”
KJI is rumored to have health problems, and in footage of Hu and KJI walking down the red carpet together, broadast on Nork TV, Hu strode confidently with shoulders erect while KJI slouched along in his grunge wear. KJI did not look vigorous.
Go ahead and launch it North Korea, we’ll knock your asses back into the stone age. We just might take care of China, Russia and Cuba too while we’re at it.
–Remort
Remort, haven’t you learned anything from the Iraq debacle? Recall the “Bring it on” farce?
Or are you just a troll?
I wonder that myself. Part of it might be that the administration is split on how to handle North Korea, leading to policy paralysis, i.e., Washington doing nothing about North Korea, which ironically is precisely how North Korea probably should be played.
Another thing to, as Dogbertt has been pointing out, is that it’s not like North Korea is in the middle of the Sahara somewhere by its lonesome. Military action against the North comes at a substantially higher price than it does in, say, the Middle East. So yeah, the administration might simply be saying, the only way to really disarm North Korea is to invade them or pay them, and the former is too costly and we simply don’t want to do the latter, so let them eat plutonium.
Look, we gave North Korea countless opportunities to end the situation peacefully, they resisted, stalled, and haven’t taken this situation seriously. Talk is cheap. Now is the time for decisive action to prevent North Korea from playing these types of games in the future. But, more importantly, move closer toward unification, while those who were seperated are still alive and have a chance to see their loved ones before their life is over.
–Remort
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