the worst possible result, from a korean perspective, in this match has happened.
switzerland have just beaten togo, 0-2, which now puts the swiss on top of the table because of a greater goal difference than korea, +2 to +1. korea were hoping to face a switzerland squad with near-zero chance to advance, but, alas, that’s not going to be the case. korea are now going to be facing the team that has looked the strongest, over the first two matches, of any of the group.
this means that, on saturday morning 4am (korea time), korea must beat switzerland to qualify for the next round. a draw with the swiss will not eliminate korea, but they will need help from the togolese, who are certainly capable of providing that help, but, given their inner-camp turmoil, it is not something to count on.
so, here’s how it breaks down:
- if switzerland win and france win, then they’re both through
- if korea win and france win, then they’re both through
- if korea lose and france lose, the switzerland and korea advance
- if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france draw with or only win by 1-0 to togo, then korea and switzerland advance (korea pipping france on goals for, though level on points {5} and goal difference {+1})
- if france lose, then, regardless of the outcome of their game, switzerland and korea advance.
- if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france win by one goal and score three more goals than did korea against switzerland, then france and switzerland go though (example: korea draw, 0-0, then france must have a one-goal win and score three goals or more because the tiebreaker between teams level on points and goal difference is the number of goals for, not the number of goals against)
- if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline), and france win by 2 or more goals (any scoreline), then switzerland and france advance (france and korea will level on points (5), but france will have a greater goal difference, +2, than korea, +1, would have.
- if korea and switzerland draw (any scoreline) and france win by one goal but only score exactly two more goals than korea (say korea draw, 2-2, and france win, 4-3, the they are level on points{5}, goal difference {+1}, and goals for {5}), then flip a coin, i guess, because france and korea will be level on points, goal difference, and goals for. from here, i don’t know how it breaks down. maybe it’s goals against, maybe it’s decided by a soju-drinking contest, taking penalty kicks, which teams has the biggest jerks, or maybe arm-wrestling between trainers, i’m not really sure. the fifa world cup site didn’t seem to offer any insight, so maybe one of you diligent folks out there can provide us with a more replete answer.
thus, korea face a near-do-or-die against the swiss. as stated above, it’s certainly possible they can lose to switzerland and still qualify, but that’s placing their fates in the hands of another and that’s a shaky thing. as both games–as all the third games of the group stages will be–will be played simultaneously, korea will have to go for the win.
my head hurts now from all of that–and it might not even be right. i’m sure one of you wary and watchful souls will catch me if i’m wrong–and i’ll be much obliged for it, too.
15 Comments
Dave,
As someone who knows very little about the sport, I appreciate your explanation.
I think Group G becomes group of Death!
Any prediction? Anyone?
I predict that France wil do what they’ve done all this World Cup — draw.
Togo has nothing left to play for now that they’ve been paid and eliminated. France wins big.
i realllllly hope Togo doesn’t just give up now that it is impossible for them to advance. I’m hoping for a rebound from the Togolese, so that their morale could be lifted for future WCs. They are receiving as much help as possible, with Zidane and Arbitale out of the game, so i hope they can capitalize. Although it is possible that Togo gets depressed and totally sucks it up, and screws Korea over
In the number 8 scenario, the FIFA officials pick the advancing team by lottery. But what happens if TOGO DECIDE TO SKIP OUT AND FORFEIT THE MATCH?? There is absolutely no incentive for Togo to keep playing given their WC and financial prospects. That results in a 3:0 win for France automatic!!! Does anyone know what happens in this scenario?? Will FIFA not look at Korea:Togo’s score when judging who advances?
Dave
Penny for them. What are you saying for the England game tonight? Are you as much of a Hargreaves hater as the rest of the nation?
It seems Lennon will be on the bench. Don’t you think he should get to play from the off given that a) he was one of the few England players that looked interested against T&T, and b) the outcome of this game is not crucial?
In the WC 2006 rules, every instance of “forfeiting” is accompanied by a 3-0 automatic score or better, depending on the score.
http://www.fifa.com/documents/.....ons_EN.pdf
Togo is paid, but they will make 30,000 euros each if they win against France. Not a bad incentive xP
The result was expected, and I don’t think Korea should rue their situation. They control their own destiny, unlike France. It’s a knock-out game in the group stage, though a draw will likely see them through. Bottom line is, win or draw and they’re through. That’s a good scenario to me. Swiss are a composed team, but their defense looked more vulnerable than ours against Togo (Kader is a talent.) I do hope Korea doesn’t allow Swiss MFs too much space to roam.
this is for danger mouse: i don’t dislike hargreaves as much as most people back in merry olde, but what gets me is that sven ALWAYS subs him in for someone. sven is so predictable with his substitution patterns. just once, i’d like to be surprised. as for lennon, i like what he gives england: pace and width on the right side that england don’t get with beckham there. with england’s strength in midfield, i don’t mind the 3-5-2 formation, which is what england played when lennon came in and beckham went to the middle. my mind says sweden-england is a draw, but my heart hopes england and trinibago win by enough to get trinibago into the next round. that would be a great story, i think…
also, i hate to say it, but korea can’t “just draw” and they’re in. if they draw with switzerland, as i outlined in the post, they will need some help from togo. the only simple thing for korea is winning. then all doubts are erased.
thanks for the breakdown. my head was spinning trying to think of the different scenarios.
i think togo is a good team. they got sloppy and careless near the end of the match with the swiss, but they had a good chance for a good result. if they had played in the never-give-up style of korea i think they would have won. or if the referee had given togo the two fouls on aberdayor as he tried to score in the penalty box, it would have been closer. i think these non-calls deflated them.
france gets tired in the end and i think togo can capitalize. and that bonus is a lot of money for the togolese. i’m calling it 1-1.
the swiss are definitely the most solid team in G thus far. they actually remind me of korea and can run with them. but they both have vulnerable defenses. whoever can dominate possession in the 2nd half wins the game.
the koreans get so much grief here from the expats i thought i would throw in this article i read in the Guardian today.
“South Korean fans do the dirty work in Leipzig
Tuesday June 20, 2006
The Guardian
Street cleaners in Leipzig got a pleasant surprise on Monday morning when they discovered South Korean fans had done the work for them, clearing plastic cups and waste paper into garbage bags before the cleaners arrived at 5am.
“It was great. It made our work much easier,” said the spokeswoman Ute Brückner.”
France 3 - Togo 1
Swiss 2 - Korea 0
Swiss team looked good today. Keep running and passing. They can beat Korean team easily because Koreans do not pass or move well.
I’m confident that a draw will see Korea through, as the alternate scenarios require France to score more than one goal, an outcome for which even ardent fans of Les Bleus should have little faith… disorganized Togo defense or not. France is done.