Three of North Korea’s Asia-Pacific neighbors have joined Washington in warning North Korea not to test an ICBM that is apparently fueled and ready for launch, reports the NYT. Those neighbors would be Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
What about South Korea?
Well, to their credit, they have been warning the North not to do it. But according to the NYT, the ruling Uri Party said yesterday:
In Seoul, South Korea’s governing Uri Party urged North Korea to “not put its friend in danger” by testing a missile. The missile test could also thwart a planned trip by the former president, Kim Dae Jung, who wants to meet the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, in Pyongyang this summer.
In case you were wondering, it was new Uri Party boss Kim Geun-tae that said that, and the statement was more like, “You mustn’t put a friend in a bind.” A party spokesman later explained that by “friend,” he meant “South Korea,” a friend with which North Korea is still technically at war. Kim also told North Korea there was no going back to the time prior to the June 15 Joint Declaration and asked them to return to the six-party talks.
Also interesting is that the South Korean government is wondering whether the thing is a missile or a space launch vehicle:
On the other hand, the South Korean government is urging for continuous observation and more prudence. Seoul asserts that it’s not exactly clear for the time being whether it’s really a missile or just a space launch vehicle (SLV) to launch a satellite into an orbit, what North Korea’s status on the preparation is, and when the launch will actually take place. Some governmental officials even complain that some foreign news sources are reporting “reckless speculation.” It has been reported that the government’s official position is although symptoms in North Korea appear to be arrangements for an SLV or missile launch, they can’t clearly conclude whether it’s launch preparation or not. Similarly, against foreign and domestic conjectures that the launch is imminent since North Korea injected the vehicle with liquid fuel, the government thinks that “the fuel is removable,” according to reports.
The fun continues.
UPDATE: I should note that so far, the only “official” North Korean response to all this was the KCNA quoting parts of a Russian editorial that noted how the Americans were developing missiles to attack North Korea. Otherwise, they’ve been extremely quiet—probably intentionally so.
17 Comments
North Korea already put a satellite into orbit, just a few years ago.
Any update on how that’s doing?
This should be filed under “word fun”. It is very much like the word “development”. The last seven years in my neighborhood has seen almost every decent and beautiful tree around my building has disappeared and replaced with more concrete. This is called “development”. Perhaps we should use the word “development” instead of “war”, for example South Korea wishes to aid in the “development” of North Korea but, oddly enough, North Korea feels that it is South Korea that is badly in need of “development”.
There is obviously much creativity used in the “development” of Hangul as a language of diplomacy and business.
I just heard the scoop on Rummy’s new plan for Korea: All “maneuver elements” out by 2010 or so (didn’t get the exact year on that, but relatively soon). CFC and 8th Army gone, a four-star in charge of something called “Joint Task Force Korea” in Pyeongtaek and Korea getting their beloved wartime operational control (be careful what you wish for). The USAF three-star would retain control of all air forces. The only army units left would be rear area Patriot batteries, some helos and such, with a total of 16,000 troops and airmen remaining on peninsula. A big step in the right direction, although it doesn’t go far enough.
“You mustn’t put a friend in a bind.” Well, the norks already have the Roh gov’t bent over and lubed up….
The South’s last big threat was that it would “reconsider” their relationship with the norks. I heard there was some pouting and foot-stamping involved.
From the Chosun: “The South Korean government believes that some in Japan and the U.S. are having a field day with the uproar over alleged preparations for a long-range ballistic missile test in North Korea, an insider said Monday. Seoul thinks even if a missile is fired, it is not necessarily a military device, and sees reports in the U.S. and Japanese press that claim a launch is imminent as unreliable.” Heads up the collective ass–the one consistent thing you can expect from Roh and his posse.
The Roh government is trying to make others believe that missile technology sufficient to escape the Earth’s atmosphere is no cause for concern? Well, I’d hate to recklessly speculate about the thought process that went into that one.
I’ve been trying to cut down on my blogging commentary —
but that part about it might just be designed to reach space is a heaping pile of rank bullshit.
And I bet important people in DC and the US military will take it as such too.
For one thing, it is basically a regurgitation of the North’s exuse back in 1998, and everyone knew it was bullshit then.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist (pun intended) to understand that you need a bleeping “missile” to launch a satilite into orbit and that such missile can deliver other payloads into subspace orbit too.
For example, look at the early US space exploation after in the 1950s and trace back the technology and scientists to the work done in the 1930s-40s on missiles for military use.
If NK can put something into subearth orbit, then they can likely get a payload anywhere on earth.
Targeting or detonating a nuclear warhead or making a warhead to fit on it area a different matter.
But, ——-
only someone who wants to shove his head up Kim Jong Il’s ass would decide it is a comfort that NK has stated the missile isn’t really a missile because it is a missile to launch a satlite and not a warhead.
But we were talking about Uri and Roh’s people, right?
Whenever I read stuff about how hunky-dory everybody is going to be about an ICBM whizzing around American air space from the DPRK, I can’t help but hear
1914
1962
over and over in my head.
It’s possible — not probable — that things could get really stressful around here in the near term if the Big Bottle Rocket does get launched.
The possibility of a satellite should not be rules out altogether. What launches a satellite and what launches a warhead are nearly same. In fact, decomishioned Minuteman, Trident, and Peacekeeper missiles are made available to universities for launching small satellites into orbit.
see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minotaur_%28rocket%29
and:
http://www.spacetoday.org/Rock.....teman.html
Considering the North likes grandiose things this would make perfect sense. While their people starved during a massive famine they devoted and estimated 17% of their GDP towards the Ryugyong Hotel. They’ve build elaborately decorated subway stations and they have a stadium listed in the top 10 of the world in seating capacity.
http://www.worldstadiums.com/s.....0000.shtml and lets not forget they claim to be a nuclear power. In their vain desperation to prove themselves a great nation an indigenous space launch capability would be the next logical step. (Yes I realize I used the word logical in refering to the North Koreans)
A space launch would make little difference defense wise, if one can launch something into orbit one can land it anywhere on earth. One only has to worry about the weight of the warhead as a limiting factor, which is where the 3,500 to 4,300 range is coming from.
Those with military backgrounds tend to see the world through military blinders and will insist this is a ballistic missile no matter what. When I dared suggest the satellite launch possibility to someone in the army, the response was an indignated “What? no, I was in the CACC when that happened, it was a missile”. Truth be told the army set up to fight a war, not run an investigation. I’ve never seen anyone on hand, on penninsula for that matter, who know flip about orbital launches versus ballistic ones. They can tell when a missile in launched and where a plane is, but they can’t tell its purpose. It’s just their mentality. I’ll leave you with the example of Iran flight 655. “Its a plane, its heading for us, its an enemy! shoot it down!” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Hey maybe it is just a giant container of fireworks and they are getting ready in case Korea make it to the round of 16 in the wolrd cup. They’ll just launch a great light show…:(
Another thing to look at is the original KCNA release: http://www.fas.org/spp/guide/dprk/index.html
North Korea sure thought it had launched a satellite, what that would play North Korean propaganda tunes on over North American CB frequencies.
However it look like they were plaugd with the same problems all fledgling rocket programs encounter stage failure. The third stage seems to have malfunctioned. Heres a good fact sheet on it:http://cns.miis.edu/research/korea/factsht.htm
Kimsoft tries to explain away the third stage falure as intentional, trying to keep the Norths enemies from capturing its remains. He’s always good for a laugh. But it makes you wonder why they would release the statement daring anyone to verify the satellite when they themselves know it failed and is not there.their thinking would be “If it succeeds, tell the world where to find and listen to our wonderful satellite. If it fails, play the bad-ass card and say it was a ballistic missile launch, oh and the scientist who failed would need some “re-education”. I can just imagine a NK scientist about to crap his white vest rigging a fake radio to play the propaganda music, and Kim saying, “Great it works! Tell the world where they can find it!”
The real question is whether the U.S. Congress will thoughtfully evaluate the import of the request “Hey, don’t put your friend in a bind.”
Wedge, I’m really curious where you found the information on Rummy’s plans. Are those just ideas he’s floating out there or something he is actively trying to pursue as a plan? Nothing in what you said is surprising at all, except maybe having a 4-Star remain in country, but I hadn’t heard anyone come out and officially say this is something DOD is pursuing. And I would think if OPCON goes back and CFC is done away with that means UNC is gone as well. USFK “command relations” would then look more like USFJ’s structure, just with fewer people.
The US activated it anti-ballistic missile shield in response, would be nice if it were always on.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash7.htm
exciting times indeed, the US is setting tself up for some real glory, or some major embarrassment depending on the outcome.
This probably has the Norks wetting their pants right now:
http://english.donga.com/srv/s.....6062046378
Also, I like how we’re not confirming to South Korea whether we have Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan or not. I’m sure the Japanese are fully informed.
MrChips: According to my source, the plan was signed by Rummy last Friday, but it hasn’t been officially released yet. I can’t mention where I heard it (maybe over a beer sometime).
You are right: I forgot to mention the UNC would also be history. I predict a lot of Korean foot dragging once this goes public.
I was also surprised by the four-star. Probably so he could at least hold his own in a pissing contest.
“A space launch would make little difference defense wise, if one can launch something into orbit one can land it anywhere on earth.”
Uhhhh…..How does this work together?
What I and several people said here, and we could be wrong, but I doubt it —
it does not make a hill of beans whether they are launching satlites or not.
The point is they have a launch vehicle capable of sending a payload into near orbit which gives the payload global reach just about — but at least capable of landing something in the United States.
Which is the point for them gaining the launch capability.
And that does very much matter defense wise.
I’ve heard a few people say that it doesn’t really matter even if NK can put a warhead into such a suborbit and hit the US and even detonate it — since it is highly likely they cannot target something specific — like LA or even California.
But, that is also missing the point.
NK will be happy if it can simply have the ability to detonate a nuke anywhere in the US — even the unpopulated deserts of Nevada —
because having that ability can create terror and a blackmail opportunity.
And the terror is also viewed as a way to gain deterence against the US.
The idea being especially that if US troops are not in SK (which looks like a real possibility in the near future) -
and NK invades — American citizens willl not allow the US government to fight in Korean War II because they are afraid NK might shoot up an ICBM and just by chance hit Seattle or even some town of 30,000 people.
And it is not a bad idea.
That is why NK having a missile to launch a satalite (wink-wink) is such a big deal.
Basically we agree. And I can see how you read it like that. It was meant as opposed to a ballistic missile launch.
We’re eye to eye on about everything. Except I think they are well aware of the MAD concept, and it’s why they don’t come over now. We could effectively and will ignore all blackmail attempts from them.