“A space launch would make little difference defense wise, if one can launch something into orbit one can land it anywhere on earth.”

Uhhhh…..How does this work together?

Basically we agree. And I can see how you read it like that. It was meant as opposed to a ballistic missile launch.

We’re eye to eye on about everything. Except I think they are well aware of the MAD concept, and it’s why they don’t come over now. We could effectively and will ignore all blackmail attempts from them.

Uhhhh…..How does this work together?

What I and several people said here, and we could be wrong, but I doubt it —

it does not make a hill of beans whether they are launching satlites or not.

The point is they have a launch vehicle capable of sending a payload into near orbit which gives the payload global reach just about — but at least capable of landing something in the United States.

Which is the point for them gaining the launch capability.

And that does very much matter defense wise.

I’ve heard a few people say that it doesn’t really matter even if NK can put a warhead into such a suborbit and hit the US and even detonate it — since it is highly likely they cannot target something specific — like LA or even California.

But, that is also missing the point.

NK will be happy if it can simply have the ability to detonate a nuke anywhere in the US — even the unpopulated deserts of Nevada —

because having that ability can create terror and a blackmail opportunity.

And the terror is also viewed as a way to gain deterence against the US.

The idea being especially that if US troops are not in SK (which looks like a real possibility in the near future) -

and NK invades — American citizens willl not allow the US government to fight in Korean War II because they are afraid NK might shoot up an ICBM and just by chance hit Seattle or even some town of 30,000 people.

And it is not a bad idea.

That is why NK having a missile to launch a satalite (wink-wink) is such a big deal.

You are right: I forgot to mention the UNC would also be history. I predict a lot of Korean foot dragging once this goes public.

I was also surprised by the four-star. Probably so he could at least hold his own in a pissing contest.

http://english.donga.com/srv/s.....6062046378

Also, I like how we’re not confirming to South Korea whether we have Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan or not. I’m sure the Japanese are fully informed.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash7.htm

exciting times indeed, the US is setting tself up for some real glory, or some major embarrassment depending on the outcome.

North Korea sure thought it had launched a satellite, what that would play North Korean propaganda tunes on over North American CB frequencies.

However it look like they were plaugd with the same problems all fledgling rocket programs encounter stage failure. The third stage seems to have malfunctioned. Heres a good fact sheet on it:http://cns.miis.edu/research/korea/factsht.htm

Kimsoft tries to explain away the third stage falure as intentional, trying to keep the Norths enemies from capturing its remains. He’s always good for a laugh. But it makes you wonder why they would release the statement daring anyone to verify the satellite when they themselves know it failed and is not there.their thinking would be “If it succeeds, tell the world where to find and listen to our wonderful satellite. If it fails, play the bad-ass card and say it was a ballistic missile launch, oh and the scientist who failed would need some “re-education”. I can just imagine a NK scientist about to crap his white vest rigging a fake radio to play the propaganda music, and Kim saying, “Great it works! Tell the world where they can find it!”

see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minotaur_%28rocket%29
and:
http://www.spacetoday.org/Rock.....teman.html

Considering the North likes grandiose things this would make perfect sense. While their people starved during a massive famine they devoted and estimated 17% of their GDP towards the Ryugyong Hotel. They’ve build elaborately decorated subway stations and they have a stadium listed in the top 10 of the world in seating capacity.
http://www.worldstadiums.com/s.....0000.shtml and lets not forget they claim to be a nuclear power. In their vain desperation to prove themselves a great nation an indigenous space launch capability would be the next logical step. (Yes I realize I used the word logical in refering to the North Koreans)

A space launch would make little difference defense wise, if one can launch something into orbit one can land it anywhere on earth. One only has to worry about the weight of the warhead as a limiting factor, which is where the 3,500 to 4,300 range is coming from.

Those with military backgrounds tend to see the world through military blinders and will insist this is a ballistic missile no matter what. When I dared suggest the satellite launch possibility to someone in the army, the response was an indignated “What? no, I was in the CACC when that happened, it was a missile”. Truth be told the army set up to fight a war, not run an investigation. I’ve never seen anyone on hand, on penninsula for that matter, who know flip about orbital launches versus ballistic ones. They can tell when a missile in launched and where a plane is, but they can’t tell its purpose. It’s just their mentality. I’ll leave you with the example of Iran flight 655. “Its a plane, its heading for us, its an enemy! shoot it down!” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655