UPDATE: Japan’s Kyodo News is reporting that if North Korea test launches a missile, the United States and Japan will deal with the matter in the UN Security Council. According to the report, the two will seek an expression of concern through either a chairman’s statement or a press statement. The United States is reportedly considering tabling a draft resolution with legally enforceable sanctions, but will likely avoid doing so due to almost certain Chinese objections.
Japanese Foreign Minister Aso Taro, meanwhile, has warned North Korea that if the missile lands in Japan, it would be regarded as an attack.
The Americans and Japanese are also stepping up their surveillance of North Korea. The US Navy has apparently deployed the missile range instrumentation ship Observation Island to Sasebo and an RC-135S to Kaneda. There are reports as well of American Aegis warships being deployed to the East Sea. There are also reports that Japan has deployed the Aegis destroyer Chokai from Sasebo to the East Sea. And according to the Sankei Simbun, Japan’s ultra-snazzy FPS-XX radar system has been put on a state of battle-readiness.
Now back to our regularly scheduled World Cup coverage.
ORIGINAL POST: Citing a Japanese government source, the Sankei Shimbun is reporting that the North Korean government will address its people this evening via TV and radio.
The Yomiuri Shimbun, meanwhile, is reporting that U.S. officials have conveyed to Tokyo intelligence suggesting North Korea has begun fueling a missile for a possible test launch.
Other Japanese press report that through diplomatic channels in Beijing, Japan has warned North Korea against going through with a missile test.
Strangely enough, North Korea has apparently told a South Korean lawmaker that it has no plans to carry out a missile test.
31 Comments
i bet they’re firing. If they’re not firing, they won’t address the nation.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough. The Sankei Shimbun prints a lot of bullshit, but when combined with all the other signals that seem to be coming out of Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, the report might actually be factual. Like I said, we’ll see.
Ahhh, this means no more Chirstmas.
When the heck are they supposed to fire it? CNN said 5 a.m. GMT or 2 p.m this afternoon was when the Big Bottle Rocket might be announced…but now I dunno.
I just want them to get it over with — do something or nothing.
I would distinctly prefer “nothing” myself…
It would be a perfect timing for the Dear Leader. How much more world attention can he get, when firing a fat rocket over the East Sea during the France-Korea match?
It just struck me that if they were to shoot off a rocket, now would be the perfect time to do it — they have a window of opportunity where they can shoot the rocket off and not spook the South. Everyone’s attention in the South is on the France-ROK game, while Americans will be fully aware of what is being thrown in their general direction.
It’s pretty smart, actually.
In a Dr. Strangelove kind of way.
So, I guess the “Guns of August” senario goes something like this — they shoot off the rocket, there is a UN sanctioned embargo. America starts a navel blockade of the DPRK.
This makes the DPRK angry and they test an a-bomb. This makes everyone even MORE nervous and there is talk of tactical strikes in the DPRK by American stealth bombers due to pressure from the thoroughly spooked American public.
The DPRK starts to show signs of instablity and….oh…I don’t wanna think about it anymore.
At the beginning of this year(Jan 31st), I predicted that NK will make a move on Japan.
“NK has always been a satellite of China, ever since the fall of USSR. Hu can order KJI around and Hu is calling shots about (now debunked?) six-party talks. KJI is just a puppet.
Actually this year is very interesting time for China-Korea-Japan relationship. China, after using NK nukes as trading chips against Taiwan acquisition, may try using NK in a new venture.
KJI visited China this year with military generals. This is significant move. And, I am afraid that the purpose of visit was not economic change as many media have reported.
China may start using NK to attack Japan!
The following events may take place.
1) NK will be very belligerent toward Japan, attacking Japanese boats and even shooting some missiles.
2) The US will be put into an awkward position. To defend Japan, the US may have to start a war against NK. However, this will not pass in the Congress. Koizumi’s Yasukuni visits will be a convenient excuse for the US not to commit troop. The US will just take the issue to the UN.
3) When NK attacks heighten and the Japanese require the US to live up to the mutual defense treaty, the US will reluctantly have to commit troops.
4) This is where the most intriguing events will follow. South Koreans will ask the US to leave the country! SK will join NK and China alliance.
China wants this consequence and may activate this scenario.
The US will pull out of Korea and just supply the Japanese Self-Defense Corps some missles to fight the war against NKs. As soon as the US pulls out of SK, NK ends hostilities against Japan, with China working as the peacemaker.
Five years later, the Unified Korea attacks Japan under China’s orders. The US is nowhere to be found.”
China has been salivating over SK for long time. And, Japan behaving like a ass***(Dokdo and Yasukuni) and the US busy fighting in MiddleEast, China may get its wish.
This missle test by NK is just a start. If I am correct, NK will do more hostilities against Japan in coming days.
The more belligerent NK gets, the more silent the US will get. The US will slowly pull out of the region, watching the China(using NK first)-Japan War to start. It is just a regional hegemony fight and the US has no reason to get involved. Just sell weapons.
*phhbbt*
My scenerio is much better than Baduks:
The new missile is filled with an amazing zero fat ice cream the Norks created.
The ice cream missile lands in Tokyo where the citizenry are amazed, and shockingly pleased by it’s tastiness.
This opens up new talks with the Norks who reveal it was a side effect of forty years of workin on reducing KJI’s tubbiness.
Ice cream feuled peace reigns across Asia.
Baduk, do not lose hope just yet. Some North Koreans remember who they are and they could surprise many by making their own changes, though they may need a little help from unexpected sources.
I must say, thanks to Iceberg I am now imagining that the cat is really moving its little mouth, talking . . .
Now, if it turns out that North Korea does not launch this missile, are you all going to once and for all discredit the news sources that you have been reading? Let this be the acid test and let this be the incident that forever change your opinion on whether your good old news sources are trusty or just propaganda.
“East Sea?” I demand that you call it the “West Sea.”
baduk,
Don’t be stupid. China will need means to finance a war with Japan. It cannot do it at the moment. It needs to follow US footsteps and control the world economy. It can do by implementing Mahathir’s proposal of godl dinar or similar ideas first.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/S.....4Ae03.html
Mahathir_fan, which sources are credible to you?
mahathir_fan—not that I find the Sankei Shimbun a particularly credible news source (I don’t), but a failure by the North Koreans to launch does NOT constitute an acid test of the reports. North Korea may have changed its mind, or, as some reports suggest, they have postponed the launch due to bad weather over the launch site. And at any rate, the reports never said the North Koreans definitely would launch. Anyway, the governments in question took the possibility seriously, although you probably didn’t get that from the People’s Daily, did you?
If I were Japanese, I’d be thinking seriously about getting my own set of nukes.
With all this talk of acid tests, I’m starting to understand where mahatir_fan gets his fabulistic geopolitical “insights”.
Baduk is politically anti-Chinese, but he’s not a bigot who stoops to using ethnic slurs. While I was living in Qingdao, I met lots of Koreans but not too many stupid ones. You know the ol’ Buddhist saying about how to a dog’s eyes, everything looks like s***t.
Xi,
You guys spilled into Korea killing Korean soldiers. Remember Korean war? 1951? What the f*** you guys were doing in Korea? Shopping for shark fins? F***.
I bet you like the present Chinese government. F***ing Commies. China will never become great country if it remains f***ing inefficient Commies.
Yes, Hu is telling KJI to shoot missles. As long as Japan, SK and the US are thinking that KJI is a mad man, China can smell like roses.
Bush needs keep on kicking Hu’s ass and tell him to cut oil going into NK. Or, the US should stop Chinese garbage coming into the US. F***ing Commie stuffs.
The fact is Commie officials taking the fruits of Chinese workers. All rich people in China have Commie party affiliation. Average people are dying in the factory while these pigs are skimming from the top.
Xi, if you love your people, spit on Mao’s picture and work for average guys in China who are making $100 per month, while the party shitfaces are taking all the profit.
Do you know what Commies like? They like wars. Do you know why? Commie bureaucracy can never match Market economy and people will rise up against Commie party pigs.
To stop this rightful revolution, Commie leaders love to start a war. A war solidifies their grip on people.
China will let NK start a war with Japan. And, when NK gets in trouble, China will come in. Just like 1951. Nothing much has changed. Commie are still in charge in China as well as in NK.
Republics with representative democracies like wars, too.
Baduk, you’re so cute when you get all frothy about 빨갱이.
China and Korea are like lips and teeth.
frankly, baduk’s extreme prediction does make a little sense, but that’s all it is, a prediction. xi, i can assure you that what the common people want (less koreans in china, watever racist bullshit your pussy ass wants to write), and what the government wants can differ.
You seem to be posting from the U.S.
“Xi” seems to not be aware of the efforts of the PRC to subvert history itself so as to legitmize its claims of ancient Korean land — land where most of his “bangzi” live today. Yes, one can not choose their neighbors and the PRC does not seem to be a good neighbor either.
This. is. awesome.
(I am of course referring to the internecine comments bickering, not the missile test…although that’s pretty awesome too. If I were Japan I’d pull an Israel regarding nuke development…or maybe they already have!)
I don’t know what you guys are drinking or smoking, but I wish I had some of it.
Me, too… We’ve got racial and ethnic slurs, accusations of history distortion, and extreme paranoia about nationalistic motives. Really, it’s to no end of wonder for me that Korea managed to remain uninvaded for such long periods of time in its history. You’d think that from the way the people in the region absolutely seem to hate each other, there’d be an invasion just about every week.
I think U.S. Navy should try to knock that crap down as part of our defense shield capabilities test.