The Dong-A Ilbo is reporting that the South Korean government has decided to completely “reconsider” its North Korea policy IF North Korea goes through with a test launch of a Taepodong 2 missile or a variant thereof.
Seoul also believes it likely that “semi-military” tensions will increase after a test, with the United States putting the full-court press on Pyongyang in the form of boarding and seizing North Korean vessels and a maritime blockade. The government is planning accordingly.
Seoul apparently confirmed Thursday that it had made its decision through recent inter-ministerial discussions on the North Korean missile launch issue. Among the projects that may be slowed down or axed completely are the Kaesong Industrial Park, the reconnection of road and rail links between the two Koreas, and the Kumgangsan tourism project.
A Korean official warned that in the event of a Taepodong 2 test, Seoul would face rising demands to reconsider its aid and economic cooperation with the North. In particular, he said South Korea would face increased pressure from the United States to slow down the Kaesong Industrial Park project.
The government, fearing that in the wake of a missile test, the six party talks could collapse and parties might seek “other ways” to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, has apparently decided to make clear its opposition to taking military measures against the North as well.
The official said a missile test, by strengthening the position of hardliners in the United States, could encourage Washington to attempt bringing “regime transformation” to Pyongyang (Marmot’s note: one wonders if the official in question even understands what “regime transformation” means), and that it would up the pressure by referring the North to the UN Security Council and by making use of the G8 summit.
Personally, this is one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” sort of things—everyone has been working so hard to ignore the North’s shenanigans that I can’t believe a missile test would lead to any serious policy direction changes.
7 Comments
You know, sometimes I really think Kim Jung Ill has a deathwish. I mean, if I were him, I would be a quiet as a church mouse right now on a geopolitical scale.
And yet, he seems determined to do one (or both) of the things that could lead to a
Cuban Missle Crisis type of situtation should they happen (which is still a big if) 1) test an A-bomb 2) test an ICBM that could reach the mainland US.
He is really, really playing with fire if he does #2 ’cause if it hits the American media the wrong way the entire country is going to go batshit insane (I can just picture the NY Post’s headline already FROM KOREA WITH LOVE)
But if neither one of these things happen, things will just keep truckin a long.
It could be an interesting summer. August is horrible for such things — the guns of August and such.
This is kind of silly. South Korea cannot prevent North Korea from developing such missile technology.
If South Korea is concern about North Korean missile technology, then it needs to do the following:
1) Go to PyongYang and negotiate an agreement where both sides agree not to pursue missile technology.
2) If the agreement is not reached, then South Korea needs to develop its own missile technology to counter North Korean technology.
It is quite a bit silly for South Korea to be “surprised” or “angry” that another sovereign nation is developing weapons when there is at present no agreement between both countries not to pursue such weapons.
What South Korea needs to ask is why they have not reach any sort of binding agreement not to pursue such weapons mutually with the North. If such agreement are rejected by the North, then it must ask why it has not armed itself with similar weapons to deter the North from ever using such weapons.
The concern about NK missiles is much overblown. Such long range missiles (even if they work and NK can produce them in numbers - none of which has been proved) will be extremely vulnerable to pre-emptive attack by NK’s enemies. And NK does not need LONG RANGE missiles to attack the South. The only likely candidate for such an attack would be Japan, a non-nuclear power. NK will never use such weapons offensively against the U.S., China, or Russia because they would be blown off the face of the planet if they did. This is all posturing by the North to get goodies from the South and other countries. SK can hurt the North much more by simply cutting off the gravey train that they’ve rolled North for these past years.
Mahatir follower is a bit more on solid ground here than I’ve ever witnessed, but still:
1. North Korea has kept military issues of the table of N-S discussions, aside from a few perfunctory defense talks that ended badly.
2. North Korea doesn’t honor agreements as that idea is understood outside of .. Norh Korea. It gets paid to make them, demands payments not to break them and demands more rewards to stay in touch about said agreements. Nothing more.
“This is all posturing by the North to get goodies from the South and other countries.”
I disagree. I believe the North is pursuing such weapons for defensive purposes. The North is at present too weak to mount an offensive attack at any nation with high success rate.
North Korea is like that hillbilly that is good at terrorizing the guys canoing down the river, but not good for much else.
“This is kind of silly. South Korea cannot prevent North Korea from developing such missile technology.”
Sure it can.. Where do you think the North gets the money for this stuff? Either from direct financial aid from the South or from selling food aid it gets from the South to a 3rd country. I’m all for trying our best to help the millions of North Koreans that are starving, but the world needs to realize that we are doing nothing for them and all our aid just goes to feed the army.
“I disagree. I believe the North is pursuing such weapons for defensive purposes. The North is at present too weak to mount an offensive attack at any nation with high success rate.”
Certainly it could not ‘win’ a war with anyone, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t start a war; it could also mean that if involved in a war she knows she has no intentions of wining so she’ll just do her best to kill as many innocent people as possible. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. North Korea with nukes, Seoul and Tokyo are very close.
One Trackback
[...] The Marmot’s Hole, for this gem. [...]