…Goh Kun.
I bet you thought I was going to say Park Geun-hye.
Park certainly got a boost from the elections and temporarily put some distance between herself and Lee Myung-bak for the GNP’s presidential nomination. However, Park was already ahead of Lee and there is still a long way to go before the nomination process begins.
On the other hand, with Chung Dong-young destroyed and Roh Moo-hyun political kryptonite, Goh now has the political left all to himself, despite being a relatively unknown quality.
A quick look at latest poll from Realmeter shows that, while Park’s support has increased by 2.4%, Goh’s has jumped by 8.7%. Goh’s rise seems to have come from the hides of Chung and Democratic Labor Party leader Kwon Young-gil, both of whom saw a drop in support.
(Go on if polling data makes you excited.)
The numbers:
| 순위 | 이름 | 지지율 | 등락 |
| 1 | 박근혜 | 30.5 | ▲2.4 |
| 2 | 고건 | 25.8 | ▲8.7 |
| 3 | 이명박 | 21.5 | ▲2.9 |
| 4 | 정동영 | 3.3 | ▼2.2 |
| 5 | 김근태 | 3.1 | ▼0.2 |
| 6 | 손학규 | 2.9 | - |
| 7 | 권영길 | 2.7 | ▼2.4 |
| 8 | 노회찬 | 2.6 | ▲0.3 |
| 9 | 무응답 | 7.7 | ▼9.3 |
The biggest loser is ‘none of the above.’ I guess the local elections have clarified things in the minds of many voters.
Broken down by region, Goh is getting most of his support from Jolla/Gwangju, while Park is strong in the South East and Lee barely edges out Park in Seoul/Gyeonggi.
I expect Lee to close the gap with Park over the next year and make of race of it. Both start with a regional base and the key to the GNP nomination may be who can get the most support in Chungcheong/Daejeon. Right now, Park has a distinct advantage there. She is polling at 39.1% in the area while Lee is an anemic 6.9% (Goh is at 24.1%).
More importantly, Park will be able to cash in some IOUs from GNP party leaders in the region come nomination time. First on that list of Chungcheong area Park supporters will be newly elected Daejeon mayor Park Seoung-hyo. He owes her big-time for coming out of the hospital to campaign for him. That last-minute help is probably what helped him come from behind to defeat a relatively popular incumbent mayor.
The convention wisdom: Park versus Goh in the general election with the DLP’s Kwon Young-gil a potential spoiler.
19 Comments
i’m curious to see how far goh gun is gonna go, the guy is so cautious in every move he makes.
i also wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up running off with a bunch of uri party members too
“Goh now has the political left all to himself, despite being a relatively unknown quality.”
One thing that is known, though, is that he ain’t a man of the left, so it’ll be interesting to see how he manages to ride a wave of leftist disllusionment with their own standard bearers into office. One possibility is that he does it simply by not being X, Y or Z and also attracting centrists and moderates from other groupings. Can he do that, though?
Park GunHey stands out like a sore thumb. As a daughter of former dictator, who stormed into the Blue House with guns, she has to be on the defensive entire time she runs for presidency.
She is just another Lee HoyChang. A losing preposition.
If Hannara selects Park as the presidential candidate over Lee MyeungBak, Korean people will look for another candidate. Gohgun may be that person.
However, with no party affiliation (no money, no manpower), he has long way to go. Only people flogging to his camp in the future will be the Commies.
So, Korea has to again choose between the party of former military dictators and the party of pro-KJI Jolla Commies. I will vote for the former. Most Korean people will do the same this time around. They have seen enough of Jolla Commies.
Does Korea allow Koreans resident overseas to vote?
Dogbert:
I believe it depends on their status overseas. If they, e.g., are Korean citizens, but hold a US green card, they are NOT permitted to vote. In fact. green card holders who may be resident in Korea are NOT allowed to vote. The latter is my wife’s situation. Any overseas Korean who has not “compromised their Korean ethnicity” (as a local election official put it to my wife) by obtaining any legal status in a foreign country other than a temporary visitor, apparently may vote.
The big news today is that Kim DaeJung, the head of Jolla Commies, have secretly purchased the US real estate properties in the tune of 360 million dollars through his subordinates.
He also has Swiss bank accounts. And, Nobel prize money he pretended to donate to Korean people but later claimed every dime of it.
This fake freedom-fighter, who condemned former Korean dictators for robbing the wealth of country, had robbed the country himself once he became the president. Dirty asshole.
Read about it here.
http://www.chosun.com/national.....90133.html
Why am I not surprised?
Of course, does it need to be pointed out that this is coming out at any awfully convenient time to force a reconsideration of letting DJ make his nexr obesiance in Pyang?
How long has this been known? Would it have seen the light of day without a political motive? If not, what does that say about the values that bind Korean elites of all political stripes: Korea and its people are just their feeding trough?
There is no such thing as an overseas South Korean vote. I’ve never personally seen a South Korean in the US ever get to vote. That South Korean would have to take a plane and land in South Korea to vote. That is my understanding of the matter.
Hanara has to avoid the split within the party, and decidely abandone Park Geun Hye, go with Lee Myung Bak. Park has no comparable governing experience or even a professional background, such as in economics or foreign policy. She only has been the propaganda, nostalgic face of the organization to gather regional interest and the woman’s vote. She is in politics, and not the son of Park Jung Hee, because the son of Park Jung Hee is a recovering druggie. Park Geun Hye must step aside, and let Lee Myung Bak run the show versus Go Geun. I don’t care who wins in that scenario. But I lean towards Lee Myung Bak.
for example, i have never known of a Korean Yoo Hak saeng, foreign student, with no US green card, but intact South Korean citizenship known to vote in any South Korean election. Maybe some of you know some. I’m pretty sure they don’t take or count votes at the US South Korean embassy. Or mail a vote.
I think that WJK is correct that, at least until just recently, even overseas Koreans who were eligible to vote had to return to Korea to do so. I beleive that Korea just very recently introduced absentee ballots.
I’ve picked Goh Kun way before now and I still project him as the likely winner since most Koreans (bless them) have a very understandable survial instinct that would draw them to such a candidate. The other candidates have fatal flaws that will become more obvious as time passes.
I think I will reserve a little red paint for Kim Dae Jung as well.
*splat*
Curious that the article (baduk) linked to above isn’t on the
Chosun’s English site, no mention. In fact there’s no such
story findable on Google News at all… What’s up with that?
You know, one thing I don’t like is that if I look in Yonhapnews, in Korean, it looks like they will not let me view searched results without logining in, which requires a national ID number — just to view news in Korean!
Talk about censorship in Korea.
There is no telling what has been vetted at this point regarding the DJ article.
R.Elgin, try this one: http://www.kinds.or.kr/
I think it’s free to get an ID–I used to use their English-language service sometimes.
Dogbert, if they have green cards, NO.
sanshinseon,
Some “sensative” articles are not translated into English.
I have some doubt about the reliability of this article. It is shown briefly (one day) on both Donga and Chosun, but disappeared. It does not mean the story is a fabrication; it just does not have a follow-up for now.
Most of these “type” of stories will appear after Rho is gone. Right now, Rho will do his best to stop tarnishing KDJ’s reputation. Somehow, the main witnesses commit suicides. Go figure.
All these charges and suicide cases will be throughly reviewed when Rho is gone. Some surprising and dark secrets about KDJ will come out.