Update: As expected Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young fell on his sword.
Original post: (NOTE: There are some updates from the next morning included.)
There is good news and bad news coming from the local elections.
The good news is that the Uri party lost big.
The bad news is that Hannaradang (GNP) won big. I will echo the sentiments of Kushibo and Joshua that a big win now might not be in the best interest of Korea or the GNP. (UPDATE: I guess I should put in the standard cautionary note here. The GNP won in local elections in 2002 only to lose the presidential race later than same year.)
Things did not look good for Uri from the start. First, voters surprised the pundits and turned out at a relatively brisk 51.3%. Long lines are usually bad news for the party in power. Then exit polls put the GNP in an early lead. It never got better.
(SIDE NOTE: If any of you in Korea were not watching TV when the polls closed at 6:00, you missed a pretty cute scene. The last few seconds were counted off like it was new years or something. As soon as the the bell struck six, the exit polls hit the screen. It is illegal to publish polls for the last six days before the end of the election.)
Let’s take a look at some numbers as of 11:55 PM: the final results:
For those of you who can read a least a little Korean (and I think most readers of this blog can read more than I), the Donga has a nice little page were you can find any race you are interested in. I’ll be getting my numbers from there.
I made some predictions in a previous post. So far, I am way off in my numbers, mainly because I underestimated the strength of the Hannaradang wave. Here are some numbers for the big races (the links should give you the most recent updates, which may be different from what I post). Most have about half of the dongs reporting:
Seoul: The GNP’s Oh Se-hoon is crushing Uri’s Joan of Arc Kang Kum-sil 61.2% to 26.8% 61.1% to 27.3%. Those numbers are absolutely gobsmacking. If someone told me 30 days ago that Kang would get less than a third of the vote, I would have bet a six-pack beer that she would get at least that much.
Kang has been lashing out at the Uri Party for making here candidacy difficult but she has no one to blame for herself for this sorry showing. When you spend your campaign bashing the southern half of the city and speaking against developing the northern half, who do you think will vote for you?
Kang’s political career is not over (political careers are never over in Korea) but she is now damaged goods.
Gyeonggi-do: Kim Moon-soo is cruising over Uri’s Jin Dae-je 59.8% to 30.5% 59.7% to 30.8%. Jin was another hi-profile candidate recruited by Uri Chairman Chung Dong-young.
Gwangju: Chung worked hard to help Uri’s Jo Young-taek, but the Democrat’s Park Gwang-tae is cruising to any easy win.
Jeju: This one is a nail-biter and will not be decided until tomorrow morning. (UPDATE: Independent governor Kim Tae-hwan keeps his job in a close one.)
Daejon: The GNP’s Park Sung-hyo is ahead of Uri’s Yum Hong-chul (the current mayor) but this one is still too close to call. (UPDATE: Park wins 43.8% to 41.1%)
If the current results hold, the GNP will win 13 12 of the 16 major mayor and provincial governor races, with Uri taking one, the Democrats two and one for an independent.
If you are wondering why the results are coming out so slowly, check out this picture from the JoongAng.
Do you want to know why Uri likes proportional representation?
The Chosun has the total numbers by party: GNP 49.51%, Uri 22.22%, the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) 13.04%, the Democratic Party 11.46%.
So, Uri got twice the votes as the Democrats but so far only have half the major seats. I saw a graphic on TV this evening that the Democrats are also picking up as many city council seats as Uri.
The problem for Uri is that they lack a solid regional base. Most of the Democrat’s support is concentrated in Jeollanam-do and Gwangju, while Uri’s 22% is spread over different parts of the country. The emergence of the Goh Kun’s People First Party the the Chungcheong provinces has cut Uri’s support there (the PFP’s candidate is pulling about 10% in Daejeon). They never really made good on their hope to make serious inroads into the GNP’s support the eastern half of Korea. That leaves Seoul-Gyeonggi-Incheon, which also went for th GNP this year.
The net effect is that their 22% vote total may very well earn then less than 10% of the available seats up for grabs once all the votes are counted.
What I think this means (and my bet is still open)
This is not rocket science: Running three progressive parties against a united conservative party in a first-past-the-post system is a losing proposition. Something has got to give or the GNP is going to take the Blue House next year and the Kuk Hoe in 2008 without much of a fight.
The Democrats are not going anywhere. They can just hold up in fortress Jeolla. The DLP, being a party of true believers, is not going to close shop any time soon. That leaves Uri. It has the Blue House and a plurality in the Kuk Hoe but it is in an extremely difficult position for the long-term. The previously mentioned lack of a regional base is taking a toll on its support and they will win fewer seats than the GNP even if they got their support levels up to the mid 30s. To make matters worse, they are faction-riven even by Korean standards.
So my bet is still on. I am calling for Uri to break up by the end of the year and I don’t mean just one or two guys leaving. I’m talking about at least enough members of the Kuk Hoe leaving for them to lose their plurality (about 20).
If any K-blogger wants wager a six-pack of beer, tell me in the comment section.
33 Comments
it’s the result that I wanted. I’m happy. Uri’s loss is the public’s judgement on them. They don’t agree with the socialist/communist idea of “da gaht chee mot sal ja.” = “everyone living equal but inevitably poor. That’s communism. That’s what South Korea didn’t want, to be separate from North Korea. When the government taxes and restrictions hurt their wallets, the people came out to vote them out. Good. It may be possible that Chung Dong Young is more than damaged goods at this point. He might be finished, politically. The South Korean public seem to be saying that they don’t want anti-US, if anti-US means hurting their wallets.
Of the 37.07 million eligible voters, 51.3 percent cast their vote Bloomberg News
Man, that’s a meager voter turnout.
There’s definitely one loser: the populace. Punished with a bunch of notorious liars and incompetent cleptomaniacs from the left to the right.
No sympathies for Hannara-dang and Miss Scarface. Such a rotten mockery of a conservative democratic party… eyes-roll, head-shake.
PS: I’m waiting for the “commies”-branding of the Jeolla people by the baduk.
baduk would be wrong in saying that. It would be more accurately anti-Kyong Sang Do. Baduk must be from Kyong Sang Do.
Honam and Youngnam seem to forget that people are also from Choong Chung Do, Kyung Ki Do, Kang Won Do, Jae Joo Do.
Sugar Shin referred to Park Geun-hye as:
Miss Scarface.
You’re creating some seriously bad karma for yourself there, Sugar.
Of Couse SugarShin,
Lives in the Socialist Republic of Germany where unemploymeny rate is 11%.
Wouldn’t surprise me if is living on generous welfare benefits there with the rest of them Turks.
Wow….this election was again really exciting…i mean it ^^;; I always think “Ok, Hannara doing better than expected” but then they do better than i expected them to do better than the polls…
I don’t know why, but the people I know live in the most conservative regions of Korea…Take Seokcho for example, where Hannara got around 80% of the vote…..
SugarShin…. you think like most of “us” Germans i suppose….Hannara is the big bad american-ally-wolf, capitalistic, park is the queen of fascism….. My opinion is, that the Hannara is not one party, but many parties. And with Park - believe me or not - the most moderate and liberal of the different factions of Hannara is now in power…Look at Oh Se-hun….he is like 10 ten times better as a democrat than most of german politicians…
…
I really expected that the ParkPung would really swing voters to support Hannara and in fact the most important thing is that the voter turnout HIKED extremely…I don’t see the problem with voter turnout, since it is the highest ever for jibang songo…But I see a clear message…Hannara had a very good result four years ago, and they even did better than that..by far! AND the turnout was higher…AND there were more people with the right to vote (some foreigners and 18 y.o.)…but still Hannara won tremendously….
Next important thing in an analysis should be the Sudo-Result. Regionalism played big this time, Honam and Yongnam drifting away as in the old times of Park Chung Hee. But the whole of Sudogwon and even Chungchong went to Hannara. In Seoul there is just one Gu where Hannara had a support below 50%….Oh Se Hun slapped Kang Gum Sil even in the “poor” quarters of Gangbuk….
Last elections were a big big lost of Uri, but this time it was ALSO a WIN of Hannara….
which makes me think that Park with ParkPung, 4 election victories in a row, the new image of a martyr can not be stopped anymore to become Hannara Presidential Candidate….The nomination is just 2 months away…who will stop her? Hwangje Tennis Lee Myong-bak ? I don’t think so…
And then the next interesting thing is whether we see Chung “Nongmin Bangsong” Dong Young or Goh “the neutralizer” Kun as the “left” candidate….Oh election time is always so exciting
If history is any guide for us, the GNP will get arrogantly over-proud
from this victory, immediately start over-reaching and factionalizing,
scandals will erupt as the factions accuse each other, and they’ll be
in serious trouble well before the next election…
btw…..calling Ms Park “scarface” … i really think you’re disgusting…..at least you didn’t come up with a conspiracy like “Scarface paid some people to injure her so that she wins the election”…which is a very famous conspiracy within the leftist in korea…..where you belong to, i suppose
“Punished with a bunch of notorious liars and incompetent cleptomaniacs from the left to the right.” That may be so, but add to that “rabid ideologues,” i.e. the Uri Party, which just got the boot for its vindictive “Japanese colaborator” witch hunts (that caused some of its members to resign for having their own skeletons in the closet), abject appeasement of Kim Jongil, running the economy into the ground, and farcial administration overall. Good to see them go.
I am no fan of the Roh administration’s economic policies, but the Korean economy is not exactly on its last legs. The last I heard, unemployment is holding steady at around 5%.
Andy,
are you taking the 6-pack bet based on Uri going away completely or simply just losing power?
Because I just request anything other than Cafri if you are talking about Uri evaporating as a political party.
What no Gunsan results?
The one soundbite that made me laugh was:
Give this man a psychic!
The BBC seemed to think that Park Geun-hye was the front-runner for the presidential contest. I wonder where they got that loopy idea from though.
There is only one reason for Uri’s demise. Uri rode pro-North wave in 2002 into the BlueHouse. At the time, Korea was just seeing the possibility of Unification. KJI was very cooperative - starting Gaesung complex, Gumkang mountain trip and the interKorea railroad.
Uri pigs like Jung “ding”DongYoung and Kim “sleepy eye”GunTae rode the wave with President Rho. The famous saying of the time, “I don’t care about economy as long as two Koreas can unite”(Rho).
Since then, KJI showed his true color. He was a jerk everybody said he was. He killed Korean Navy sailors, started threatening Hyundai corporation about stopping Kumgang mountain trip, and kept on developing nuke weapon to bring more negative attention to the peninsula.
He is the main reason the Uri party got whipped today. If KJI had been more reasonable, the Jolla Commies(there I have said it) would been rallying behind “Unification” cry and Uri could have gotten at least half or more seats.
However, after his ridiculous antics, nobody in Korea likes KJI any more. He is a jerk and a true blood-sucking dictator. Uri politicians can no longer insist that KJI is a reasonable man. Nobody believes them any more. The Uri party which rose with “Unification” is going down with “Unification”. As long as KJI is alive, only Unification possible is NK’s attacking and succeeding in overpowering the South.
To tell you the truth, I actually like the Uri party’s economic policies. I think at least Uri politicians tried to redistribute income by taxing the rich and giving it to the poor. Their attempts were commendable and if Hannara is not careful, Korea could be split into two distinct classes- the rich and the poor.
I hope new party to be born. Just drop pro-North stance and keep “taxing the rich” slogan. A true liberal party. And, this new party should not include Jolla Commies.
Nice roundup Robert, thanks for writing this post.
Uh, or I mean Andy. Thank you Andy.
“I hope new party to be born. Just drop pro-North stance and keep “taxing the rich” slogan. A true liberal party.”
Baduk, you hate commies but don’t mind socialists?
Uri can’t evaporate because they hold something like 45 proportional seats in the Kuk Hoe. Unless Korean law is really strange, if a PR member of the assembly leaves the party, he loses his seat.
The definition I am going with is ‘lose enough Kuk Hoe members to lose their plurality,’ which I believe is around 20. I think it will be more than that unless President Roh leaves or is booted from the party.
QUOTE The bad news is that Hannaradang (GNP) won big. I will echo the sentiments of Kushibo and Joshua that a big win now might not be in the best interest of Korea or the GNP. END OF QUOTE
Share these worries. I would even say that for emergence of confident, clean and reasnable Korean Right it will be good if the GNP stays in wilderness for the next presedential term as well. To let new people take charge of things. But it is unlikely. Alas, Roh’s team is a bit too… well, you know what I means. So, the GNP might win next year, just to become overconfident and loose seriously. And then they wil not be able to take real challenges some 10-20 years down the track, when Americans finally get out, China finally becomes a superpower and KJI finally dies.
Korean politicians on both the left and right would do well to end the institutionalized graft and bribery, stop pardoning crooked officials every Buddha’s birthday and share more of the power of the central government with the provinces. This is the way the country’s politics will mature, regardless of which side of the political spectrum the ruling party comes from.
What is the Democratic Party? Is it left-leaning? I thought some other party was started that was more New Right (supposedly classically liberal) with the aim of distancing conservatives from the Old Right/Hannaradang. Or was that just talk?
@Snow: The DP is the traditional opposition party
It was the opposition under military rule and when Kim Dae Jung was elected it was the governing party (Yodang) and since it changed name some times in history it was named “Saechonnyon” (Millenium) DP at this time, but changed the name again after a defeat in general elections..
They are…well….not really ideologically anymore…they have their home turf in Honam region, where they have overwhelming support…..they are seen by some as a sort of “social democrats” or “liberals”….hard to say…but i like them WAAAAAY better than those Uri-babos ^^;;
btw… wonderful cartoon in Chosun Ilbo today:
http://english.chosun.com/medi.....011_00.jpg
says everything about the election
Thanks Kimchi, almost anyone’s better than Uri, except for the DLP. I just wish there was another less-tainted conservative party.
I too worry about the Hanara win because this election seems to be plagued by some of the same emotionalism that influenced the election of Roh Mu Hyan — that of Park Guen Hye being hurt now as opposed to the deceitful use of the accidental deaths of two school girls a few years ago. This fixation upon emotionalism to determine governance comes at the expense of those issues that really need the awareness of everyone in South Korea. I still have hopes for Goh, who is a far more experienced choice than Park for president.
I also think more people now might better understand my past allegory of each and everyone of the GNP candidates cutting their faces as a constant reminder of their past failures and the need for a better effort for everyone’s sake.
Regardless of what poiboy states above (and BTW, your English has really improved since your Korea Lies posts during the Race Riots)the Korean people have spoken out against the Dear Leader’s stooges in the South and have delivered crushing blow. It is my hope that some of the optimism and “can do” attitude of the 1990’s will return to Korea.
Goh is more experienced but he may be siding with Jolla Commies in the end. I don’t think he is one, but he seems to have no support at the present time (definitely no organization- he has no party affiliation) and eventually he will join Uri party or Millenium democratic party, both of them are run by Jolla Commies.
Park Gunhey or Lee Muengbak with Hannara anti-Commies will do better. The only thing is that Hannara party caters to the rich and the poor may take to the street. More bamboo fighting. More stone throwing and more imprisonment.
I wish a new party could be formed in Korea that severs ties with the old dictators(sorry Park and Lee) and still embrace the poor and yet strongly anti-NK. I look toward new faces like Oh SeHun or Kim Moonsu. These young guys are fresh, have good track records and relative few skeletons in the closet. Too bad that they do not have risen far enough to run for president in the next election.
Park is a bad choice. Just her presence itself angers many people who had been oppressed by former dictators including Park’s father. I don’t think it is good for Korea for her to be the next president. It is like travelling back to 1970s.
Lee is a better candidate. But, he is super rich and he caters to the rich Kangnam residents. Korea is heading toward economic difficult in near future. Remember the ten year depression in Japan between 1990s? Korea is at that point right now; expect the property values to be halved. Lee may not adapt well in difficult economic times. Hoover?
I really wish some politicians like Oh and Kim to set up a new political party that severs ties with old military dictators.
Fresh start is desperately needed!
I think I understand the sentiment those have who think GNP might screw this opportunity over with such a big win and blow their chance to grab the blue house and assembly. I’m not sure though how much of an affect this is going to have on national politics.
Is GNP simply going to stop playing ball in the assembly out of arrogance? Perhaps, and if so that would be enough to squander some of their future chances at the polls. I’m just not sure there are any issues which these local and provincial posts can provide to make much hay with.
Actually, I think GNP’s best hope is that Uri doesn’t break up or lose too many members. That way Uri can continue to disappoint in the public’s eye and provide firepower for the next set of elections. GNP needs to play it cool and let Uri continue to bleed themselves.
On a related issue, is it my imagination or does GNP’s version of conservative have a much more traditional tone to it then the political conservative notion they have in the states? I find their the pro-American, anti-communist stance a poor facade for what they really are, status-quo’ists.
Hannara’s pro-American and anti-communist stance is real. After all, if you are a sane Korean, what other option is out there? None. Am I saying Uri politicians are insane? Yes, they are filled with 1960 Commie manifestos and they don’t know what they are doing. They have to catch up to 2000s.
The kiss of death for them was their blind love toward KJI. They hate SK dictators with maximum prejudice and yet love the Northern dictator with open arms? WTF! Insane!
Do you know why they are such schizos? It’s because the party is run by Jolla Commies headed by Kim DaeJung. That is why. In this election, people said no more bullshit and whipped Uri, Kim and KJI.
Meanwhile, the biggest problem for Hannara is that people still look at them as descendents of former dictators. With the daughter of former dictator(the one who started it all) at the helm, it is difficult to say the party is for the people. This stigma will not go away. It is too much burden for Hannara to carry. People will suspect the party to be less than sincere. And, they may be right! Hannara lied big time four years ago about political contribution. The party still has too many old and dirty stoggies who have served under military dictators. Their evil acts will be revealed in full scale when they take official posts in coming government. It is akin to former Nazi officers taking present German government posts. People will be outraged!
Fresh start is desperately needed.
Baduk, on this I think you’re absolutely right. I didn’t mean to say the GNP’s pro-american, anti-communist stance wasn’t real. To the contrary; I’m simply saying it sometimes seems like that is ALL they are without any other political ideas.
Again, as for there being no better option that is also true. However, GNP needs to get past being solely anti-communist and start fostering some integrity within their party. I wonder if GNP is really concerned about abusing their power, even if done in the name of anti-communist efforts. I’d like to see them be anti-communist, small-government AND honest. We’ll see ab out that though.
The ideology fade away by daily economic concerns. Yet, Uri survived by people’s ego in cholla minkook.
Of Couse SugarShin,
Lives in the Socialist Republic of Germany where unemploymeny rate is 11%.
Wouldn’t surprise me if is living on generous welfare benefits there with the rest of them Turks. Origami
Educate yourself about Germany’s economic model before scribbling your rubbish about “Socialist Republic of Germany”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany#Economy
Wow, an hattrick deffamation trial against Germany, the Turkish immigrant minority and me (but I’m not that important). That’s rich, bitch! Be surprised, I am employed and working for my money.
Ok, c’m on guys, nobody in the mood for a little bit of blasphemy? Thought that “Scarface”-line would be funny, but for all those complaining commentators here, I say:
“써리!”
Many years ago a Korean commentator noted that “Korea has Space Age economics, but Stone Age politics.” It seems that little has really changed over the years. A major problem is that almost all political parties serve merely as the vehicles for personal advancement and are only weakly linked to grass-roots constituencies. Changing ruling parties usually means little more than changing the hogs at the trough. I too hope that the incompetent dopes of the Uri party will be replaced by more sensible and professional governors, but I would not bet that will be the case.
2 Trackbacks
[...] Update: If you’re interested in nationwide coverage of the election in English (why anyone would care about anywhere other than Gunsan is beyond me…) then check out Andy’s post at the hole. [...]
[...] They had wounded the Democratic Party in 2004 but failed to kill it. The Democrats just waited in for Uri to spend itself before striking back. That time came in the local elections last spring, which the GNP dominated. The Democrats picked up as many seats as Uri, despite having about half the total voter support. As I said back then: Do you want to know why Uri likes proportional representation? [...]