The Marmot’s Hole

An annual Pentagon report to Congress on Chinese military power has raised the possibility of Chinese intervention in North Korea, reports Yonhap (Korean).

Citing as factors the failure to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and possible economic collapse, the report, submitted Tuesday to Congress, noted the possibility of instability on the Korean Peninsula and regime collapse in the North. If such a situation were to develop, China might be forced to choose between a unilateral response or a multilateral one.

About this, one diplomatic source told Yonhap that the report was an expression of hope that China would respond in a positive, multilateral fashion in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula.

The report noted that with China’s increasing military strength, Chinese leaders could choose from a wider spectrum of coercive measures to press its political interests, pursue national interests or resolve disputes.

It also cited the Spratley Islands and Central Asia as other areas where China may militarily intervene. In particular, about Central Asia, the report noted that China could intervene militarily to protect its energy investments in the event of insecurity in the region.

The report claimed that even if China takes preemptive military action, it could claim they were strategically self-defensive, such as it did with its “self-defense counter attacks” against India in 1962, the Soviet Union in 1969 and Vietnam in 1979.

It praised Beijing’s hosting of the six-party talks, but faulted China for not adequately using its close relationship with North Korea as a lever to diminish North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Since we’re discussion contingencies for an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, we’d be amiss not to mention that operational plans for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force were leaked onto the Internet last week:

Three leaked documents, each classified under the third-highest level of confidentiality, provided details on the operations of the MSDF’s Sasebo district unit in two situations–a contingency in areas surrounding Japan and defense mobilization.

Such MSDF operations are to be carried out with U.S. Navy ships, depending on the situations.

The agency declassified the three documents after the leak became known and the codes and frequencies were changed.

According to the documents, the 2003 drill was conducted on the MSDF’s combat scenario of a nation preparing a ballistic missile attack against Japan or a country claiming sovereignty over territory in the Nansei island chain, including Ryukyu and other isles in southwestern Japan.

These territories within the Nansei islands were labeled “S islands” in the documents.

In those situations, the MSDF’s Sasebo district unit, which has security jurisdiction over the Kyushu region and Okinawa Prefecture, would be dispatched for warning and surveillance activities in the Tsushima Strait and the western Kyushu region. The unit would also inspect vessels, conduct minesweeping activities and evacuate Japanese nationals.

If the situation becomes a national emergency, vessels of the main MSDF unit will escort U.S. aircraft carriers and other warships to the danger zone. MSDF vessels would also transport Ground SDF troops to the S islands.

The U.S. Navy would deploy warships mainly to areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula while engaging in maritime interception operations in the Sea of Japan.

That’s an embarrassing leak.