The Marmot’s Hole

(NOTE:  Since the Marmot’s Hole is going to be my primary blogging home from now on, I’m going to stop using the ‘guest blogger’ tag.  You can still see the writer’s name at the top of each post.)

There are only seven days left until election day and there is a lot of Korean political news to cover.

Park Geun-hye’s face

The attack on Grand National Party Chairwoman Park Geun-hye is still the big news maker in Korea politics.  Her attacker is being charged with attempted murder.

One bit of good news from all this is that, as far as I know, nobody of any responsibility on the left has suggested that Park somehow ‘had it coming’ (one notable exception being the head of President Roh’s support group) and nobody of note on the right has suggested that it was a government plot.  Of course the Chosun has laid out the first step of a possible conspiricy theory.  But we expect such things from the Chosun, so it is no big deal.  Park’s assailant isn’t helping matters by claiming a connection with an Uri Party lawmaker. 

As note earlier, the GNP’s lead in the polls has increased since the attack, although I do not think the bump will last more than a few days.  In any case, the GNP was already ahead in 11 of 16 major races and only has a snowball’s chance in one of the other five (Jeju-do).  Park personal popularity is also slightly up.

The attack’s more significant effect on the election is that it has dominated the news and prevented the Uri Party from effectively attacking the GNP, which means that they have little hope of shifting the numbers in time to make any real difference.

Uri gets no help from the Norks

While I am sure the North Korean’s have their own reason’s for canceling a planned test of inter-Korean rail links, they must have known that Roh’s party needs all the help they can get in the local elections.  Maybe not (KTimes):

‘..with the military agreement on safe passage not signed, and the pro-American right-wing forces in the South driving the political situation in the direction of an extreme confrontation and war, we admit that the test runs of the trains cannot take place as scheduled.’

If they think the right is driving the political situation now, just wait until after next week’s elections confirm President Roh’s lame duck status.

Interestingly enough, while the GNP blamed the Roh administration for being ”unprepared and amateurish in negotiations” with the North, it expressed disappointment at the cancellation of the tests.

The (media) polls are closed

Korean election law prevents the publishing of any more election polls until election day, so what we have now is our last snap shot of public opinion until the real polls are closed.  Here is what we have:

1. As noted above, the GNP leads in 11 of 16 races.  Uri leads in Jeollabuk-do and Daejeon.  The Democratic Party leads in Jeollanam-do and Gwangju.
2. The only close race in in Jeju-do, where the GNP candidate narrowly trails an independent incumbent.
3. In Gyeonggi-do, most polls have the GNP’s Kim Moon-soo ahead by as much as twenty-four percent, although a Dong-A poll has Uri’s Chin Dae-je tied with him. 
4. In Seoul, most polls have the GNP’s Oh se-hoon ahead of Uri’s Kang Kum-sil by between 20 and 30 percent.  Kang, who was considered a rising start only a couple of months ago, has lashed out at her party for its poor performance.  In my humble opinion, Kang has not helped herself with her Gangnam bashing over the last few weeks.

I guess a sinking ship is stronger than a rising star.