Was checking out Ji Man-won’s site System Club (one of those bookmarks I don’t admit to in pleasant company) when I came across Anna Fifield’s latest piece in the Financial Times on the growing disconnect between Washington and Seoul. Scroll down for the English. Here’s just a sample:
“The US and South Korea are not co-ordinating on the most serious strategic issue,” says Jon Wolfsthal, an international security expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “History will look back at the past 10 years as a strategic turning point for the negative. Nothing good can come of a nuclear North Korea.”
BTW, for what it’s worth, I can think of lots of good that can come from a nuclear North Korea. For starters, money spent on an unusable nuclear arsenal (and protecting it from potential air strikes/nuclear first strikes) is money not spent on reconstructing North Korea’s infrastructure, so it’s just another nail in the DPRK’s coffin. A white elephant that glows in the dark, if you will. A nuclear North Korea could spark South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to go nuclear themselves, which would break the Russo-Chinese nuclear monopoly in East Asia and maybe, just maybe, encourage the United States to finally pull its forces out of Korea and Japan. Hey, if a nuclear North Korea would screw the Chinese and at the same time allow us to bring our troops home, maybe Washington’s got it all wrong with trying to block Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Rather it should subsidize it.
13 Comments
The next ten to twenty years are going to be very interesting in this part of the world. I’m not banking on reunification in that time (maybe 40, 50 years or never), but alot will happen regarding the ROK/US alliance and the political situation in the region. But being a cautious sort, I would prefer to watch all that happens from a safe distance, especially if the US troops all pull out.
Not that I think the North will then invade. I think that would just be stupid (and KJI is a scumbag, but he’s not stupid), unless a future SK President is stupid enough to hand him the keys to the kingdom or unless KJI or his heir have greatly strengthened their hand by then through generous handouts from China and SK. No serious moves are going to be made without the Chinese looming very large. I just hope that SK doesn’t someday opt for vassal state status if they are ever crazy enough to cosy up to the Chinese for ‘protection’.
Funny commentary at the end, Robert. You know, the scary thing is, in some ways, I actually kind of agree with you there. In some ways, chilling as the thought of widespread nukes throughout East Asia is, the idea is at least worth looking at.
What you’ve written is the first thing I’ve read that makes sense about North Korean Nukes since The coming U.S. retreat from Asia by Patrick J. Buchanan.
Half of what Buchanan says borders on maniacal and the other half is spot on. Too bad people are afraid of being associated with the former to read much of the latter. In this case he is spot on. Nice read. What does KJI want? Prestige, Attention, Legitimacy…How did he get nukes? by negotiating through efforts like the Shoeshine Policy into getting enough funding to develop them. Think more negotiations will work? Nahh. Perhaps P.J O’Rourke’s advice is best: Give war a chance!!
You know, even though the thought of a nuclear-armed South Korea is more than a bit frightening, I do wonder from time to time what would have happened had the US not intervened back when SK was seriously attempting to attain a nuclear arsenal in the pre-NPT days. If Nixon had gone ahead with his plan to pull all the troops out of South Korea (rather than leave half of them there indefinitely) and allowed SK to gain a reprocessing facility from France, would SK today be better or worse for it?
Really though… I personally don’t think that a nuclear-armed NK would really prompt the rest of the countries in the region to go nuclear, since all of them still have the US’s nuclear arsenal to fall back on. Maybe part of the reason SK is so happy to bend over backwards to shield the North from criticism is because the threat of a nuclear North keeps the US from pulling its troops out of the region.
NK is an underling of China. When the US pulls out, NK will attack Japan as dictated by China. China wants to use NK as the initial attack force on Japan. China will play a benevolent peacemaker at the initial phase of the China-Japan War.
SK will be joining its Northern brothers and attack Japan as well. Dokdo is nothing compared to Korean troops attacking Tokyo. Killing Japanese civilians with maximum prejudice. Are you hearing this, Koizumi? Still concentrating on Dokdo?
The Japanese will serve Koreans and Koreans will serve the Chinese. This is the way it was before 18th century when the Westerners appeared in Japanese shores. China and Korea want to turn the clock back.
When the US leaves, it is Domino. Yes, Domino theory works in a certain environment. China->NK->SK->Japan->Phillippine?….-> Continental US?
I think the Chinese will not attack the US. They are more reasonable (and peaceful) people than the Japanese.
Curious, what good can come of the US pulling the far east? Don’t you see any strategic importance in East Asia?
baduk, how do you figure the Chinese are more reasonable and peaceful than the Japanese? The facts belie this. Unlike China, Japan has not been involved in an invasive war since WWII.
Those are some great blanket statements there baduk. I find your hate rather disturbing, if not pathetic. You’ve have pretty much shown that Koreans are not reasonable or peaceful-barbaric actually. First of all, the theory of the Domino Effect is pretty much out of date and second of all, both Korea and Japan are democracies. There has never been a war between democratic nations in the history of democracy. From what I’ve studied the Japanese defence forces are not as weak as you seem to think they are.
Heh. Baduk’s pro-NK/communist fantasies are always amusing. I suppose it’s possible that Korea and China could successfuly invade Japan. After all, there’s a first time for everything.
“Baduk’s pro-NK/communist fantasies”
Zonath, as crazy as Baduk’s ideas are sometimes, you’re very mistaken with this comment. Baduk is about as rabidly anti-NK and anti-communist as anyone I’ve seen on this board.
I stand corrected then. Sometimes, I have trouble discerning between pro-North fantasy and anti-North paranoia.
I think Robert should more widely disseminate this “Modest Proposal for Asian security.”